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Friday, October 31, 2025

SPX and Powell Updates

On Wednesday, the Fed disappointed the market by not cutting rates to negative 9000.  Powell then threw fuel on the fire by claiming he'd been abducted by aliens and that they'd implanted "a chip in his nose that plays blues music at all hours."  He also confessed to difficulties telling the numbers 6 and 9 apart: "They're like, the same number, really!  Just upside down!"

This caused a brief panic as the market sold off -- before rocketing higher so it could sell off again.  

Here's where we are now, near-term:



And bigger picture:


In conclusion, by all normal Elliott Wave counting methods, it would appear the market still needs at least two 4-5 unwinds higher.  That said, the decline has some of the hallmarks of an impulse, so another wave down wouldn't be unusual -- with more possible if there's a sustained breakdown of the blue line on the first chart.  Trade safe.

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