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Monday, November 3, 2025

SPX and INDU: Right Said Fed

Something we didn't discuss last update that probably needs to be discussed is Powell's "surprise" announcement that the Fed will be ending Quantitative Tightening on December 1.  This means that Fed-held securities that are currently being absorbed by the private market will no longer need to be absorbed -- which frees up more liquidity to buy other assets (such as stocks, bonds, used cars, etc.).  As we've discussed a million times, additional liquidity tends to increase asset prices.

About 6 weeks ago, I wrote Why is the market rallying during QT? Whence Comes the Liquidity? -- so now we'll have the liquidity sources covered in that piece plus the abatement of the Fed drain.  So that's a fact worth keeping in mind heading forward.  It also means the only reason the market would sell off here (beyond short-term) would be if it interprets this as an incredibly bearish signal indicating that the Fed thinks we're on the verge of a serious economic downturn.  Because, barring a massive black hole that soaks up liquidity faster than it can be created, more liquidity is generally bullish.

Chart-wise, SPX hasn't moved much -- but INDU's chart is worth glancing at:



SPX is unchanged:



And everything from last update still applies:



Not much else to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

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