SPX and NYA: Better Nate than Lever

This is the start of Thanksgiving week and traditionally, this is one of the most bullish weeks of the year on a seasonal basis -- so that's worth keeping in mind.

Last update discussed the possibility that the decline had done its job and completed or nearly completed, and the market did manage to hold the recent lows during Friday's session.  It has not yet broken out of its near-term downtrend, though, so that's the next test for bulls:

In SPX, I probably should have mentioned this (see chart annotation) in the prior update but forgot -- and "better Nate than lever" as the old Dad joke goes:

Bigger picture, the zone around black still appears to be the next reasonably significant downside price point:

In conclusion, it's worth reiterating the close from Wednesday's update, because for now, it remains the most germane feature of this market:

In fact, multiple markets beyond NYA appear to be three wave highs, which is the main thing holding me back from embracing an intermediate bearish viewpoint at this exact moment (subject to update if things change).  That said, it's an entirely different animal when an apparent b-wave high occurs in the middle of a seemingly-incomplete wave then it is when you spot one at the end of a massive 5-wave rally.  This is the case here (see "the simple bear case above), so it lowers the odds a bit, because options such as "failed fifth" enter the equation.

Not much to add beyond that.  Trade safe.