SPX and NYA: Bull Case/Bear Case

There wasn't much to add last update, but I did note:

Near-term, SPX is still holding the recent swing low, though it did dip below red again -- which can sometimes be a sign that buyers are running a little thinner, so bulls should stay on their toes here.

That warning proved appropriate, and SPX has since gone on to break its recent swing low and close below the all-powerful red trend channel:

Near-term, the Occam's Razor chart interpretation suggest further lows will occur:

So I'm going to outline the bear case here, and then the counterargument.  The bear case is pretty simple and can be seen in the blue 1-2-3-4 on the first chart, suggesting the potential that the ATH completed wave 5 of that count.

The bull case is also simple, and is best illustrated by NYA's chart:

In fact, multiple markets beyond NYA appear to be three wave highs, which is the main thing holding me back from embracing an intermediate bearish viewpoint at this exact moment (subject to update if things change).  That said, it's an entirely different animal when an apparent b-wave high occurs in the middle of an seemingly-incomplete wave then it is when you spot one at the end of a massive 5-wave rally.  This is the case here (see "the simple bear case above), so it lowers the odds a bit, because options such as "failed fifth" enter the equation.

So, in conclusion, most markets would look better with new lows -- so near term the decline probably isn't done yet.  And, even if it is part of a corrective wave -- which is currently the most likely potential, but never a "guarantee," especially coming at the tail of a possibly-complete 5 wave rally (as mentioned above); again, this does make this less certain than our usual b-wave highs -- expanded flat c-waves can sometimes extend far beyond typical targets, so this isn't a great time to be complacent if you're a bull. 

Trade safe.