SPX and NYA: SPX Captures First Target

Last update argued that 

"Near-term, the Occam's Razor chart interpretation suggest further lows will occur."

and closed with: "Near term the decline probably isn't done yet."

And that proved to be a big hit.  SPX captured its first downside target -- and NYA came very close to capturing its target as well:

Let's look at what is currently my (slightly) leading interpretation for SPX, based on the apparent 3-wave nature of the most recent all-time highs.

Bigger picture, the diagonal invalidation is below the black trend line, so that keeps things reasonable:

Essentially, if I were a bull, I would be VERY cautious in the event the diagonal's KO (2nd chart) is overlapped more than briefly.  Yes, there are always other iterations of a diagonal to be drawn, but this is an imperfect world and sustained overlap there would be a classic big warning sign.

To quote what I wrote in the prior update (note that we got the new lows already -- this is more for the remaining sentences beyond that point):

In fact, multiple markets beyond NYA appear to be three wave highs, which is the main thing holding me back from embracing an intermediate bearish viewpoint at this exact moment (subject to update if things change).  That said, it's an entirely different animal when an apparent b-wave high occurs in the middle of a seemingly-incomplete wave then it is when you spot one at the end of a massive 5-wave rally.  This is the case here (see "the simple bear case above), so it lowers the odds a bit, because options such as "failed fifth" enter the equation.

So, in conclusion, most markets would look better with new lows -- so near term the decline probably isn't done yet.  And, even if it is part of a corrective wave -- which is currently the most likely potential, but never a "guarantee," especially coming at the tail of a possibly-complete 5 wave rally (as mentioned above); again, this does make this less certain than our usual b-wave highs -- expanded flat c-waves can sometimes extend far beyond typical targets, so this isn't a great time to be complacent if you're a bull. 

I couldn't have said it better myself.  Trade safe.