Let's start with an interesting chart, which will be a big hit with bulls. Going back to 1930, this past week marked the 16th time SPX had a +2% Thanksgiving week. The 13 month performance following +2% Thanksgiving weeks has been positive in all 15 prior cases -- with the average thirteen-month gain being 22.9%:
Next, SPX has continued to rally since I issued warning on November 21 that the decline "may be done or nearly done":
NYA has technically (if not officially) confirmed the pattern as interpreted on November 14:
SPX is back into (old) red, but hasn't tested that yet:
Finally, the chart below is worth bringing forward for two reasons:
In conclusion, the market has reached a potential resistance zone, so it may react to that. Long term, if history is any guide, we might need to continue keeping the "fifth wave extension of a fifth wave extension" option in mind for the time being, but we'll see how things develop from here. Trade safe.
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