tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post1039223145193379374..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: Is Today's Market Going to Sucker You into the Wrong Side of the Trade?PretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger63125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-60160397089221480172011-10-23T11:23:42.034-10:002011-10-23T11:23:42.034-10:00Thanks, Rocky, appeciate the thoughts.
Yeah, I th...Thanks, Rocky, appeciate the thoughts.<br /><br />Yeah, I think I just learned that lesson (re: haters) the hard way. :D I tend to assume that people are basically decent and reasonable, so I initially made an attempt to respond in a reasonable way. Not what he was looking for, apparently, because he then escalated his attack. It seems like his intentions were simply to provoke -- so I finally gave up w/ him. And, yeah, wasted too much time on him, too... definitely would have been time better spent on charts; or w/ my family.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-48276329279124074182011-10-23T05:31:20.431-10:002011-10-23T05:31:20.431-10:00I like your analysis so far. I'm completely ne...I like your analysis so far. I'm completely new to watching technicals for investing and I was following another EWTer around the 10/4 bottom and he wasn't buying that as the end of it. He seemed to be married to his 1040 target. The impact, I have missed this entire move up! It's on me though for not being more flexible.<br /><br />Some thoughts on the hater on the minyanville site...I realize as a new writer for such a large forum, you naturally want to defend your work against those types but I would caution you against trying to battle them too much. They thrive on the discourse which often gets ugly and I'd rather you spend your time working on charts! :) Keep up the good work.RockyTop Gunnernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-46448481809578525392011-10-22T13:19:47.436-10:002011-10-22T13:19:47.436-10:00Thanks, Spiker, I appreciate that. I went a left ...Thanks, Spiker, I appreciate that. I went a left a final reply to the hater's reply:<br /><br />"Well, now you're just getting ugly.<br /><br />I suppose if I were charging you to read my blog/updates -- or if I were forcing you at gunpoint to read my updates -- I would have actually read your entire reply instead of just skimming through all the:<br /><br />"blah blah blah YOU SUCK blah blah blah AND BESIDES blah blah blah I HATE YOU..."<br /><br />The one point you made (which I accidentally actually read) that I will acknowledge is that perhaps I should have made some mention of that projection going afoul. I am used to only sharing my work with about 100 other traders who have known me for a decade; I have not previously shared my work with the general public, so I'm sure I have a bit to learn in that regard. In the future, I will keep that in mind.<br /><br />Had you perhaps approached this with less bile (speaking of age, I assume you are in your teens or twenties, since anyone who's lived a little longer -- at least if their life has been worth living -- has developed more tolerance and humility, and the maturity to hold a discussion without devolving into senseless insults), I would continue this discussion.<br /><br />So, sir (I assume you are a sir, since women are generally better-mannered), I bid you good day."PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-21819356546473875962011-10-22T03:05:49.879-10:002011-10-22T03:05:49.879-10:00I just checked out the critical comments on Minyan...I just checked out the critical comments on Minyanville. Simply put, what a hater.<br /><br />Your multiple projections forces newbies like myself to invest thought into understanding EWT rather than just consume your conclusions. I like that you educate in your posts. When your advanced comments go over my head, I take it as a signal that there are concepts that I need to research so that my understanding will grow.<br /><br />Keep it coming, I appreciate your work.SpikerJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18395405581766207065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-29516862662910426932011-10-21T22:36:03.464-10:002011-10-21T22:36:03.464-10:00Thanks! I was feeling a bit discouraged... it'...Thanks! I was feeling a bit discouraged... it's not like I'm charging this guy, or forcing him to read my updates or anything -- yet he still felt justified in attacking me pretty viciously (and, I felt, inaccurately). <br /><br />I guess the whole "public eye" thing is a new experience for me. I'm used to only sharing my work with about 100 other traders who've known me for roughly 10 years, and who are familiar with my past calls. <br /><br />I imagine I'll get more thick-skinned about dealing with the general public as time goes on.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-36552308861110313632011-10-21T20:42:47.398-10:002011-10-21T20:42:47.398-10:00Just recently came across your blog - great stuff....Just recently came across your blog - great stuff. My compliments on your skill and thanks for sharing. Unfortunately, as an EW newbie I have little to add. Don't get discouraged by some fussy-pants posters who don't understand the value of your work!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-8312137884854471532011-10-21T20:20:05.741-10:002011-10-21T20:20:05.741-10:00Okay, CTP:
Here's something I really like abo...Okay, CTP:<br /><br />Here's something I really like about your count for that little rally: Wave C is within 15 *cents* of a perfect fib .618 of Wave A. That's actually a really convincing argument in favor of your count. <br /><br />Thanks for this suggestion, I'm going to look at the charts a little differently this weekend and see what insights that may bring.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-19680465011568600052011-10-21T18:17:39.793-10:002011-10-21T18:17:39.793-10:00Yeah, it's fun to bounce this stuff around, de...Yeah, it's fun to bounce this stuff around, definitely positive to listen to another viewpoint. <br /><br />Night!PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-24970305658092292932011-10-21T18:15:56.704-10:002011-10-21T18:15:56.704-10:00Hmm. I can't poke any holes in your chart, it...Hmm. I can't poke any holes in your chart, it's certainly viable for the rally. Tough to label the potential "failed fifth" as an impulse, though. Failed fifths usually look like a short C-wave.<br /><br />The one problem I've always had with my count is the wave sizes are imbalanced, relatively.<br /><br />There's definitely room for interpretation either way...PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-54843813078747158982011-10-21T18:14:01.624-10:002011-10-21T18:14:01.624-10:00Pretzel,
Unfortunately I'm in the Eastern tim...Pretzel,<br /><br />Unfortunately I'm in the Eastern time zone so I'm getting a little bleary eyed and gonna turn it in for the night. I'll study your chart in more detail tomorrow. I am really enjoying these e-wave discussions, great knowledge sharing hopefully will help us both and the rest of your readers to stay on the right side of the market.<br /><br />Best,<br />CTPCTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-43516232904483324622011-10-21T17:57:53.293-10:002011-10-21T17:57:53.293-10:00I think the intensity was due to the whipsaw out o...I think the intensity was due to the whipsaw out of the ending diagonal, that's typical of that type of move.<br /><br />Just annotated a chart, lemme figure out where to post it for ya.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-70791587427983917772011-10-21T17:33:58.547-10:002011-10-21T17:33:58.547-10:00One other thing is the ferocity and speed of the r...One other thing is the ferocity and speed of the rally that came in the last hour. Wouldn't that sort of power be typical of the kind of rally you would see off a failed 5th wave down? After all the reason the 5th fails to make a new low is that buying pressure is just too intense to reach the new low, kind of like trying to force a beach ball under water then when you let go (ie. selling stops) the beach ball flies up violently.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-4291612160292479632011-10-21T17:28:36.660-10:002011-10-21T17:28:36.660-10:00Pretzel,
Take a look at this. I just threw some l...Pretzel,<br /><br />Take a look at this. I just threw some labels on it. Is this a viable corrective count for the 10/4 morning rally? <br /><br />http://screencast.com/t/siwuN7Ah9yoCTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-56244454482051593322011-10-21T17:27:47.127-10:002011-10-21T17:27:47.127-10:00I need some kind of forum where we can post charts...I need some kind of forum where we can post charts for the blog discussions. Trying to annotate a chart of 10-4 morning now, guess i'll figure out how to share it after i annotate it.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-884156245495966102011-10-21T17:20:32.721-10:002011-10-21T17:20:32.721-10:00Thanks, btw, your comment wasn't up yet when I...Thanks, btw, your comment wasn't up yet when I was writing mine. :)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-69041009839060509452011-10-21T17:17:36.388-10:002011-10-21T17:17:36.388-10:00I still have some trouble viewing the 10/4 decline...I still have some trouble viewing the 10/4 decline as a failed fifth, because of the internal structure of the morning rally before it. It's a clear 5-3-5-3-5 structure on the one-minute chart, so it's hard to view that as anything other than part of the first wave, IMO.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-35377884234777923442011-10-21T17:09:12.618-10:002011-10-21T17:09:12.618-10:00Pretzel,
That really sucks to have to deal with t...Pretzel,<br /><br />That really sucks to have to deal with that kind of ignorance when you are sharing quality analysis like you do. But unfortunately alot of those less experienced with markets prefer some guru to predict the future with absolute certainty which if it was possible you sure as heck wouldn't be posting it online you would instead be well on your way to owning the entire world ;-). <br /><br />The other thing I have noticed is that many traders/investors who seek guru analysis/advice are not looking for someone who is accurate but for someone who will confirm their biases. That is why so many permabear and permabull gurus have such loyal followings. Their subscribers would rather have them be consistent (ie. stubborn) than be flexible and adapt to the clues that the tape action presents each trading day. <br /><br />On the other hand those that are truly successful at trading learn quickly that it is OK to be wrong, just not to stay wrong.<br /><br />Anyway, try not to let the haters get you down. Your work on this blog is greatly appreciated by many.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-80064414743389151862011-10-21T15:41:36.768-10:002011-10-21T15:41:36.768-10:00Yeah, that thought's occured to me too. If th...Yeah, that thought's occured to me too. If this was it for the rally, that would catch just about *everybody* off guard.<br /><br />Man, I took a grilling from some guy on Minyanville about this article in the "comments." I hope you don't mind, I quoted you in my reply (anonymously). :)<br /><br />He's one of those people who's looking for updates to spoon-feed him and tell him exactly what to do at every second of the day, so he was critical of me for adapting my counts to the market. It's apparent he really doesn't understand what my intentions are, but that didn't stop him from attacking me ferociously. <br /><br />My updates are definitely geared towards the more advanced, self-directed traders. Still disappointing when people like him misread me so horribly, though. :(PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-12279655495349846892011-10-21T15:22:58.334-10:002011-10-21T15:22:58.334-10:00Pretzel,
I agree with you about about the Tuesday...Pretzel,<br /><br />I agree with you about about the Tuesday low being a 4th wave rather than a B wave. But I'm thinking that instead of an ED 5th we are going to get a standard impulsive 5th which would make that final hour low on 10/4 a failed 5th for SPX. <br /><br />Also, in conjunction with the count above I like the entire rally off the 10/4 low being the C wave of an irregular flat off the August low for SPX and the C wave of a standard flat for NDX. Which would mean we run higher over the next few days, ideally up to around 1275 SPX and then comes the big waterfall decline to new lows.<br /><br />That scenario has lots of things going for it including that it would fool the majority who are waiting for a B wave pullback. Wouldn't it be ironic with all those waiting for the pullback to buy if the market once it finally does pull back it just keeps on going down down down? Also, the timing would fit my cycle work perfectly. And lastly I can't ever recall a bear market that didn't at least test the 200 day SMA once from below before it entered the collapse phase.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-22884664646376475922011-10-21T14:24:21.983-10:002011-10-21T14:24:21.983-10:00Arnie: 1237 triggers 1247 (theoretically). And ye...Arnie: 1237 triggers 1247 (theoretically). And yes, this definitely could be the C wave. There's still just no way to know for sure, based on what the market's revealed so far. Both possibilities are looking equally viable at the moment. Once we get a tradeable top in place, the form taken by the initial part of the decline will help us anticipate which is more likely.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-76847836587588775962011-10-21T14:19:47.223-10:002011-10-21T14:19:47.223-10:00CTP - Hmm. The Dow does look like a 5 wave impuls...CTP - Hmm. The Dow does look like a 5 wave impulse; but, at the moment, anyway, I really feel like the correction we just saw was a 4th wave, not wave B. I'll have to dig down into the charts again this weekend.<br /><br />Yeah, the market is definitely playing it close to the vest here. Question is: is the market holding pocket aces, or deuce/seven off-suit?PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-16816193047607168102011-10-21T11:00:35.554-10:002011-10-21T11:00:35.554-10:00Pretzel,
Have a great weekend! :)
Best,
CTPPretzel,<br /><br />Have a great weekend! :)<br /><br />Best,<br />CTPCTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-67290267191757034992011-10-21T10:05:31.853-10:002011-10-21T10:05:31.853-10:00s&p closes at 1238, above your 1237.22 trigger...s&p closes at 1238, above your 1237.22 trigger! Does that mean that minor 2 is near and that minor 3 is thus expected sooner than you predicted earlier?Arniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05540101332450928069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-83973128572284482762011-10-21T09:50:22.381-10:002011-10-21T09:50:22.381-10:00One the bull's side is the action in the finan...One the bull's side is the action in the financials today especially standout KRE (regional banks). One the bear side AAPL acting very doggish just can't get off the mat... still plenty of mixed signals out there.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-54670118743759689342011-10-21T09:47:23.169-10:002011-10-21T09:47:23.169-10:00That is unless the DJIA new intraday high was just...That is unless the DJIA new intraday high was just the 'b' wave of an irregular flat W4 of the ED... This market just refuses to tip it's hand before this weekend's Euro palooza...CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.com