tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post1053927158753807932..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX, Euro, and Dollar Update: Are the Bulls for Real?PretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger103125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-5122170191127074832011-12-27T23:42:33.914-10:002011-12-27T23:42:33.914-10:00Update's posted, so let's continue discuss...Update's posted, so let's continue discussion on that thread. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-13448365021599473622011-12-27T22:00:54.706-10:002011-12-27T22:00:54.706-10:00Sometimes I get so mesmerized by a market that jus...Sometimes I get so mesmerized by a market that just keeps levitating on ever increasing money 'creation' that I even start to doubt that logic exists anymore. I sometimes think that Goldman must have purchased the rights to logic and have declared it suspended until further notice.<br /><br />But I think the world is saturated with debt. There's just no room for any more... at 'any' interest rate. We've come to the point where even the hint of the tiniest increase in rates is enough to topple a country. At least three decades of credit creation have reached an end... that's what I think. And since at least 95% of all the money in the universe was 'loaned into existence', then a necessary reversal of the expansionary period dictates that that money will have to disappear back into the imaginary void that it was created from in the first place. I just can't see how it would be possible to defend against an unwinding of the credit bubble considering that the FED and the ECB are printing money like it's going out of style and yet it's like trying to catch all the water coming over Niagara Falls in a kid's plastic beach pail.<br /><br />And yet they just keep pulling off one goofy mindless solution after the other and the markets buy into the scam like a bunch of brainless zombies. Yeah one of these days that can is going to blow Ben's leg clean off. Then we'll see how well he does in an ass kicking contest, lol.<br /> Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74792484958903461332011-12-27T21:19:16.091-10:002011-12-27T21:19:16.091-10:00mav, lol. Don't tell Goldman Sachs, they just...mav, lol. Don't tell Goldman Sachs, they just made an offer on it! :DPretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-42350847260321073602011-12-27T21:17:37.678-10:002011-12-27T21:17:37.678-10:00Hi Scott, welcome!
I think Prechter has the same ...Hi Scott, welcome!<br /><br />I think Prechter has the same challenge most Elliotticians have (myself included, at times), which is a tendency to advance the wave degrees too quickly. I try to compensate for this tendency with some success, although not 100% success. Anyway, I believe the crash will start as most crashes do: from overSOLD conditions... not overbought conditions as we are approaching now. <br /><br />FWIW, I have waited quite patiently for the next leg of this bear. 2008 I had pegged. 2009-2011 I anticipated fairly well too. Timing seems right for this to unfold soon -- maybe not today, and maybe not tomorrow. In fact, I can see one possible alternate count which would have one last delay forming as a way to stretch out the 2011 top a few more months. It wouldn't hold much in the way of upside, but it would frustrate bulls and bears alike and grind this market sideways for a while longer. I'm not ready to throw out the Minor (2) count at this juncture though, and this other potential I see is pure speculation at this point, and an attempt to prepare everyone if it seems to be unfolding.<br /><br />The persistent bullishness at this juncture is normal, though. Tops are supposed to feel like the start of a new leg up. If tops felt like "tops," then any idiot could make money trading, because the market would be so transparent that my kids could manage my account.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74309566796276992622011-12-27T21:03:23.776-10:002011-12-27T21:03:23.776-10:00Definitely hard to imagine 2012 being a good year ...Definitely hard to imagine 2012 being a good year for bulls at this stage.<br /><br />I'm having a hard time seeing how everyone could wiggle out of all the ongoing difficulties... but I've watched this can get kicked each time before. Just seems like the can can't ("can can't" that's fun!) stand too much more kickin'. I think the can is full of super-fizzy soda now, and next time it gets kicked, it explodes on Ben's boot. Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-87605552427993534242011-12-27T20:54:12.820-10:002011-12-27T20:54:12.820-10:00Sounds like both of you know a helluva lot more ab...Sounds like both of you know a helluva lot more about BB's than I do. :)<br /><br />I'm a "pattern recognition" guy, first and foremost -- probably goes along with my artistic leanings (music, photography, graphic design). I use BB's in passing sometimes, but I have nowhere near this depth of knowledge on BB's.<br /><br />Thanks for pointing out the patterns, Arnie.<br /><br />And Brian, you should write a friggin book on BB's -- these are some of the clearest and most concise explanations I've heard.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-2139337216553023852011-12-27T20:41:29.908-10:002011-12-27T20:41:29.908-10:00Brian ... CNBC explains geopolitical risks as the ...Brian ... CNBC explains geopolitical risks as the driver of higher oil prices. Not just war but sanctions on Iran could set off disruptions. http://www.cnbc.com/id/45800354dust_devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-35085907189991857582011-12-27T20:33:37.673-10:002011-12-27T20:33:37.673-10:00Yeah, I perceived that Brian was looking out for y...Yeah, I perceived that Brian was looking out for you and I appreciated that as well, lol. <br />He deserved an honest clarification. <br /><br />Ok, with your blessings, once I see that the article has been published on GEI (scheduled for the first trading day of the new year, Jan. 3rd) I'll post a link here. The article will also include a link to the original article from May in case any of your readers wanted to go back and start at the beginning. However the new piece is written with a review of the thesis, so a revisit to the original article is not required. I sincerely believe they will find the study quite interesting and of value, since probably 'all' people who participate on technical websites tend to think in logical terms and the majority of them have a real good capacity to understand the implications of a major trend line break. I'm pretty confident you'll like it :-)<br /><br />Thanks again Pretzel and I hope so sincerely that 2012 turns out to be a knockout good year for all of us. I don't see why it can't in spite of the fact that it's almost assuredly going to leave a dark stain on the entire global economic system.Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-38791930698491328912011-12-27T20:09:31.981-10:002011-12-27T20:09:31.981-10:00Let me reply to you and Brian in the same post her...Let me reply to you and Brian in the same post here: Alberta, no worries and I do appreciate your showing of respect. Brian is simply trying to look out for me, which I very much appreciate as well. <br /><br />In fact, I'm rather honored by both of you. <br /><br />Thanks, you two. :) Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-51131474779488902442011-12-27T19:56:17.093-10:002011-12-27T19:56:17.093-10:00Hi dust_devil. The LIBOR chart (and short comment...Hi dust_devil. The LIBOR chart (and short commentary) are posted on my blog site. You can just click my name and you'll see it.Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-28470077693133561042011-12-27T19:51:14.939-10:002011-12-27T19:51:14.939-10:00Thanks for the book reference! How do you think th...Thanks for the book reference! How do you think the two ending episodes will affect gold?dust_devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-88899884991842830572011-12-27T19:44:46.296-10:002011-12-27T19:44:46.296-10:00For me, EW is just part of the pictures. Any econo...For me, EW is just part of the pictures. Any economic or political insights are helpful. I would like to see the LIBOR chart, and I would like to have the reference to the Jan 3 article. I mean, since when are we not interested in questions about inflation versus deflation?dust_devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-55012156524400599852011-12-27T19:36:02.490-10:002011-12-27T19:36:02.490-10:00TY for the detailed info on auctions.
Are these a...TY for the detailed info on auctions.<br /><br />Are these auctions well underway or over by the time New York markets open?dust_devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-28847087934856236272011-12-27T19:25:50.151-10:002011-12-27T19:25:50.151-10:00Hi Brian. I think I can allay most of your concer...Hi Brian. I think I can allay most of your concerns. My question to <br />Pretzel was posed simply out of respect for the man. There is no money<br /> involved whatsoever and I am no "pro", unless you wanted to count the <br />fact that I've been studying the stock markets and began to do amateur <br />technical analysis at age 11, half a century ago. I'm just a working <br />stiff like most other people. I work a menial evening job which <br />includes having worked the past 78 weekends in a row. Every weekend <br />since April, 2010 except for Christmas Day, which was on a Sunday this <br />year. Yay... I finally got a weekend day off.<br /><br /><br /><br />I am not a paid writer. I'm paid nothing for the article in question <br />and I don't earn any money from my blogsite. In face, as I mentioned in my question, the link I had <br />intended to post was to an article on a third party website where the <br />original article had been published. And that site is Global Economic <br />Intersection. It's no different than any link you might post to an <br />article on Zero Hedge for example, except for the fact that I just <br />happen to be the unpaid writer of the article in question. It's all <br />pretty innocent really. My question was really asking "would your <br />readers care for a heads-up, or should we just let them stumble upon the<br /> article somewhere out there on the internet?" Nothing more sinister than that.<br /><br /><br /><br />Pretzel and I do not have a "competitor but still friends" <br />relationship. We only have the "friends" portion. I hope that disclosure helps to<br /> clarify the relationship in no uncertain terms and remove any notion of<br /> some sort of convoluted money sharing scheme. I only asked the <br />question because I are a classy guy and wouldn't want to offend Pretzel in any way :-)Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-88219471641492424552011-12-27T17:16:41.815-10:002011-12-27T17:16:41.815-10:00AH HA! you're slipping pretzel! your secret in...AH HA! you're slipping pretzel! your secret indicator is revealed!mavrichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-61442460723625196502011-12-27T16:56:49.677-10:002011-12-27T16:56:49.677-10:00Albertarocks is on Pretzel's blog list on the ...Albertarocks is on Pretzel's blog list on the right side of his sight. Good information to consume.infinitiplus1noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-40515532492314567192011-12-27T16:44:03.547-10:002011-12-27T16:44:03.547-10:00tomorrow is the day that we will see some action o...tomorrow is the day that we will see some action on this week.Anyone actually working this week will be in tomorrow to square some positions and put fund/portfolio in order for early january expectations. My best guess is that Italy auction tomorrow gives bulls a "reason" to push it higher - the auction is for short term money - less than 3 years - so should be short enough to get some yield hogs interested. The real test will be Thursday when Italy auctions longer term debt - greater than 3 year tenors... this will be the litmus test - and a "failed auction" - less than planned would be the reason to top of wave 5. IF ECB pushes hard enough and both Wed/Thurs auctions are good enough - then wave 5 rides through to Friday and everyone happy to take hope SPX near 1290 and up 2-3% for the year.potusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-25507673634461991912011-12-27T16:34:44.049-10:002011-12-27T16:34:44.049-10:00The latest book from Ed Easterling talks about how...The latest book from Ed Easterling talks about how this secular bear will end: either an inflationary or deflationary episode will drive PE's to extreme lows. As the inflationary or deflationary situation improves (we return to price stability), the conditions for a new secular bull will be set. This corresponds to how the last secular bull started in the early 1980's (after an inflation spike that time). So, I am very interested in any new thoughts about how to forsee deflation.Barbaranoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-87408989971226338232011-12-27T16:33:53.150-10:002011-12-27T16:33:53.150-10:00BR, thanks for explaining! I don't want to be ...BR, thanks for explaining! I don't want to be a smart ass, wise-guy, but I knew all this about BB's behaviors already. I use BB's for my intra-day trading all the time. <br /><br />The point I wanted to make is that the 2min intra-day chart from 1pm to 3:10pm is strikingly (almost exactly) similar in price action and BB behavior as the daily price-action and BB behavior from Sept 30 till today. Since the market went down after 3:10pm today, my question is if we thus can expect similar downward price action in the near future (maybe already starting tomorrow) on a daily scale. I agree that the BB need to be interpreted with other TIs to know what direction to expect. So that's what I did. Please see the attached SPX plot, with Wm%R, SSTO and MACD. Given that are all in over-bought territory I believe -based on the 2min chart- that we are for a serious leg down. When? Dunno, doesn't have to start tomorrow exactly; we may keep on drifting sideways as we did today: nice doj/spinning top btw, which I expected... and we know what that means: top is in (if tomorrow is down day). If that's the case I'll go short 100%.<br /><br />But given that the BB on a daily scale are tightening due to the lower band going up and the upper band staying flat; I am inclined to think the next leg is down (just like the leg after 3:10pm today). BUT, IF the upper BB is also going up due to continued upward price action, then the rally ain't over.soulsurferusanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-63073333020324120982011-12-27T15:51:35.712-10:002011-12-27T15:51:35.712-10:00I should say light volume holidays have a bullish ...I should say light volume holidays have a bullish bias. It's mainly retail investors trading on light volume, as opposed to the market movers. A better question might be: why weren't the bulls able to get anything going on such light volume?Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-4234482197622338062011-12-27T15:49:44.880-10:002011-12-27T15:49:44.880-10:00Usually the big funds refrain from doing heavy sel...Usually the big funds refrain from doing heavy selling into light volume days. Light volume is considered bullish, not bearish.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-10070538192150777442011-12-27T15:43:48.074-10:002011-12-27T15:43:48.074-10:00Yeah! Don't you know that old predictions don...Yeah! Don't you know that old predictions don't count if Anon writes something new? Duh! That's how he keeps himself going. It doesn't count if it wasn't his most recent trade. He made a couple of percent back on Friday, helping to offset several multi-day double digit losses (after losing 25+% last month). He is now a winner! <br /><br />It like real trading, you just count the last trade, not the cummulative ones. However, with good risk management, you could even take Anon trade entries and make money. Rally1322noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74675994899257491902011-12-27T15:42:47.329-10:002011-12-27T15:42:47.329-10:00I want to read that article myself. UNLESS it is ...I want to read that article myself. UNLESS it is a mechanism to divert income towards you and away from Pretz. In which case, I don't. And won't.<br /><br />Is there a way for you to post information without it getting into being an income diversionary / sharing mechanism and agenda? Meaning the same way the rest of us post info here?<br /><br />I would think there must be a way for you pros to share info and help one another in such a way that ADDS to one another's overall profit, well-being, enjoyment, understanding, etc. And which at the very least does not take away from one another.<br /><br />I own restaurants myself. And I am good friends with a LOT of my competitors. We all make plenty off of one another in the form of our respective staffs frequenting one another's establishments and being generally supportive on one another's efforts. And we all frequent one another's establishments ourselves. <br /><br />Hell, I've vacationed with a few of my closest 'competitors', but we aren't really competition if you really think about it: we are just fucking good at what we do, so people of similar minds frequent our establishments. And <br /><br />But the way we do that is we do not STEAL from one another. EVER. There is a well-understood set of principles that governs this. Though I'm not sure how to articulate it precisely. <br /><br />All I know is that we do well by one another and the world is better for it in general.brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-29373323919134761532011-12-27T15:27:49.718-10:002011-12-27T15:27:49.718-10:00I disagree AF. Your timeline is simply too short....I disagree AF. Your timeline is simply too short. Topping is PROCESS not immediate reversal event. Pretz could tell you more about this than I could. <br /><br />The ONLY objective that bears needed to accomplish today was halting runaway to the upside and the upward wrenching grind that was running them over in slow motion. That happened today. Decisively.The open let sellers know: We longs are committed to another day of selling at these levels. And then sellers let longs know at pretty much EVERY crucial juncture after that: Okay we'll allow this for today, but this fucking nonsense of grinding higher and blowing through stops needs to stop right now. Both sides basically 'agreed'. Which was a huge win for sellers. Because we are at a top and not at a bottom. If we were at a bottom and longs were able to halt the slide in similar fashion, then it would have been a win for bulls, even if the candle printed red overall. Because bulls would have drawn a line in the sand. Which is what bears did today at 1,269 and never letting get back there for the rest of the session.Now we wait for the outcome of the Italy auction. If that or some other headline event comes along, then the bear line in the sand today means nothing. But the onus is on longs now. Sellers just have to wait.brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-21419683902775350552011-12-27T15:15:01.176-10:002011-12-27T15:15:01.176-10:00Also of note on the Daily chart: Notice how at th...Also of note on the Daily chart: Notice how at the very end of the chart, the lower BB curls up and the upper BB stays flat. And then the move is up and in the direction that the BB curled against the candlesticks.<br /><br />This nearly ALWAYS means that there is strong resistance (in this case from the downside) and the BB curl is pointing the direction of the next move. Which in this case was a move higher.<br /><br />This is one of the most looked for indicators by BB followers, btw. brianhutnoreply@blogger.com