tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post1251657436934229595..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: Looking for Confirmation of the Crash WavePretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger142125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-10440851802784192962011-11-11T02:03:38.600-10:002011-11-11T02:03:38.600-10:00Update's posted, let's move future discuss...Update's posted, let's move future discussion over to that thread.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-47814771500377223902011-11-10T23:54:13.240-10:002011-11-10T23:54:13.240-10:00ES futures starting to look like the bulls might e...ES futures starting to look like the bulls might end up with nothin' but a big wedgie.<br /><br />(i.e.- bearish rising wedge forming):<br /><br />http://www.screencast.com/t/Vk8OH1eS7PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-90694877418934861762011-11-10T23:39:27.276-10:002011-11-10T23:39:27.276-10:00ST structure is a complete mess. We might get a r...ST structure is a complete mess. We might get a repeat of the last "rally," just on a slightly smaller scale, and to lower levels, obviously.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-36417182147000948592011-11-10T23:09:39.861-10:002011-11-10T23:09:39.861-10:00How's the charts looking Pretzel?How's the charts looking Pretzel?Franknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-46839383097316152552011-11-10T23:01:10.048-10:002011-11-10T23:01:10.048-10:00Pretty sure that'll fix everything. WHEW! Wh...Pretty sure that'll fix everything. WHEW! What a relief. World is safe again! That was a close one. :DPretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-6876200618102828582011-11-10T22:27:43.324-10:002011-11-10T22:27:43.324-10:00It appears the European solution is for the ECB to...It appears the European solution is for the ECB to keep buying Italian junk bonds. Can they do something more creative?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-61573377500425021652011-11-10T19:47:27.846-10:002011-11-10T19:47:27.846-10:00Hmm. Not liking the action in the dollar right no...Hmm. Not liking the action in the dollar right now. Looks like it's forming a triangle; possibly a B-wave, which could lead prices down toward the 77 level over the ST.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-18355264763973720942011-11-10T19:44:04.719-10:002011-11-10T19:44:04.719-10:00mav,
"trending action" would refer to t...mav,<br /><br />"trending action" would refer to the market moving decisively in the same direction (either up or down) for a time.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-24235037706520580832011-11-10T19:36:56.531-10:002011-11-10T19:36:56.531-10:00Anon,
Regarding when wave V will start, I can'...Anon,<br /><br />Regarding when wave V will start, I can't tell you, time wise. I don't do time predictions, I just work off price. As to how I arrived at GS III, it's simply not something I can show on a chart. My last article w/ the LT count discusses this:<br /><br />"So on the largest cycle counts, it gets tricky when you get into time-frames like the Grand Supercycle, because you get into trying to approximate waves without price charts (so you're trying to plot civilization -- how much downslope do you apply to the dark ages? How does it fit in relation to the renaissance? etc.). There is an outside chance that 2007 marked a complete series and Grand Supercycle V's top."<br /><br />It's really an approximation. At least some of my approximation is based on the assumption that the strength of the bull/technology run of the last several decades has all the markings of being part of a massive third wave. As an example of my reasoning: there was more technological advancement in the 1980's than in the entire *history* of mankind which preceded that decade.<br /><br />So, as far as what GSC degree we're in, it's really just a "best guess" and I make no pretentions to it being otherwise. :)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-80532732270993085062011-11-10T19:02:28.713-10:002011-11-10T19:02:28.713-10:00CTP what do you mean by trending action? Do you me...CTP what do you mean by trending action? Do you mean holding the trend or moving trend?<br /><br />Also does anyone know the typical volume of Vet Day? Light I presume?mavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-22262365832325100032011-11-10T18:45:37.789-10:002011-11-10T18:45:37.789-10:00Interesting article showing consensus is now becom...Interesting article showing consensus is now becoming convinced that trading range will last for foreseeable future. That is probably the kind of sentiment that would indicate that we will see trending action soon...<br /><br />http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2011/11/technical-analysts-its-too-hard-to-say-where-the-market-goes.htmlCTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-75933131847922288382011-11-10T18:34:43.585-10:002011-11-10T18:34:43.585-10:00Pretzel, I am not familiar with EWT so hope you ca...Pretzel, I am not familiar with EWT so hope you can enlighten me on this. <br /><br />I was reading your Big Picture SPX, and in the early Oct version, you mentioned that we are in the Grand Supercycle Wave IV now, and Wave III top was in 2007. Just out of curiosity, when will Wave V start? Also if you can post a chart of SPX since inception to show how you deduce 2007 as the GSC Wave III top, that would be most helpful.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-11574767827502832522011-11-10T18:32:29.522-10:002011-11-10T18:32:29.522-10:00Good to see you back CTP. And I'll look forwa...Good to see you back CTP. And I'll look forward to hearing more of your perspective on things. <br /><br />I still think tops are the hardest thing to call. The equities market isn't going to provide any clues that a rundown is coming. If you have other ways of being able to see the cycle top coming,that's pretty cool. <br /><br />I was two days prior to it myself. I don't presume to be able to see the signs on a chart. But I do know the *feeling* of extreme sentiment. And things just not being sustainable. After that run up to 1,275 I was still feeling fine from buying in two days earlier, but I was certainly wondering: okay, where does this nonsense stop. <br /><br />Good to see your analysis is more congruent with Pretz's again. It still seems like the direction you'd choose for today's environment is down rather than up.brianhuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13919393156588909718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-30684933050801807752011-11-10T18:27:23.287-10:002011-11-10T18:27:23.287-10:00hahahahahahahha whoops!
well at least i wasn'...hahahahahahahha whoops!<br /><br />well at least i wasn't incorrect by saying it. hahamavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-86988617638530899792011-11-10T18:20:43.870-10:002011-11-10T18:20:43.870-10:00Rocky,
I'm not too worried about the futures ...Rocky,<br /><br />I'm not too worried about the futures because they were up huge Thursday morning too but that got sold into aggressively when the cash market opened so even if this rally in the futures hold on until tomorrow's open (which is a big if) then I would expect the gap up to be a gift to shorts.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-66271859702362949172011-11-10T18:02:39.134-10:002011-11-10T18:02:39.134-10:00futures up...why won't this market just roll o...futures up...why won't this market just roll over and die already!<br /><br />looking to short oil through equities...any thoughts on a good high beta vehicle for that? Non leveraged.RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-41332241823620437862011-11-10T17:19:01.074-10:002011-11-10T17:19:01.074-10:00Well, that would make buying on the 12th and selli...Well, that would make buying on the 12th and selling on the 13th a pretty safe play...PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-52411465154925334222011-11-10T16:41:38.566-10:002011-11-10T16:41:38.566-10:00mav,
problem with that is that 12th is a Saturday...mav,<br /><br />problem with that is that 12th is a Saturday and 13th is a Sunday ;-)CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-82438085760585442372011-11-10T16:27:51.975-10:002011-11-10T16:27:51.975-10:00DEFINITELY do not take my musings as trading advic...DEFINITELY do not take my musings as trading advice. just thinking out loudmavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-75450338074242523142011-11-10T16:27:02.979-10:002011-11-10T16:27:02.979-10:00ST low 11/11 +/- 1, ST high 11/14 +/-. If someone ...ST low 11/11 +/- 1, ST high 11/14 +/-. If someone was going to trade the up wave, it seems like buying on the 12 and selling on the 13 would be safe IF the cycle count is right. Just throwing it out there. But for educational purposes, I would think its safer to just short around 11/14 to not miss the big wave down.mavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-23324925445347373492011-11-10T16:26:34.650-10:002011-11-10T16:26:34.650-10:00mav,
I am the Robin to his Batman LOL! ;-)mav,<br /><br />I am the Robin to his Batman LOL! ;-)CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-41260403176668159722011-11-10T16:05:34.122-10:002011-11-10T16:05:34.122-10:00Glad to see you back CTP. You make a good foil/ ac...Glad to see you back CTP. You make a good foil/ accomplice to Pretz.mavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-61774589899636448392011-11-10T15:53:52.003-10:002011-11-10T15:53:52.003-10:00Pretz,
Thanks, but don't worry I am not beati...Pretz,<br /><br />Thanks, but don't worry I am not beating myself up for it, I just recognize it for what it was which was a masterfully disguised bull trap. If that top had come 24 hours earlier I would have been all over it, but now I know to keep tabs on multiple risk assets at these cycle turn windows not just the manipulated SPX. BTW Kudos to you for sticking to your bearish guns.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-73980692892906083892011-11-10T15:47:00.670-10:002011-11-10T15:47:00.670-10:00Btw, CTP, don't beat yourself up too bad... Th...Btw, CTP, don't beat yourself up too bad... That top call was HARD, I had to dig into everything from sentiment to commodities to currencies for clues. Maybe one of the toughest calls I've ever made... and it definitely fooled almost everyone else, so don't be too hard on yourself.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-82021305712487766532011-11-10T15:30:21.366-10:002011-11-10T15:30:21.366-10:00CTP, that's what you've got me for! :)
...CTP, that's what you've got me for! :) <br /><br />It's a friggin full time job not only keeping up with, but sharing all this stuff. It's one thing to do it for myself, it's another to package it and present it to everyone else. I am literally putting 80 hours/week into this blog nowadays. It is turning into one of the most demanding full-time (double time?) jobs I've ever performed... though very rewarding emotionally. (One day, financially as well, I hope.) :)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.com