tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post1339272210741718341..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX and Dow Update: Stocks at a Critical Inflection PointPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger102125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-70334384326011935992011-11-23T07:44:24.979-10:002011-11-23T07:44:24.979-10:00Vulture, what in the hell are you doing on this an...Vulture, what in the hell are you doing on this ancient thread, lol. PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-46310642274868555382011-11-23T07:37:55.944-10:002011-11-23T07:37:55.944-10:00CTP - Glad to see you back CTP - Glad to see you back vulture711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-46853085743881953452011-10-24T22:34:23.382-10:002011-10-24T22:34:23.382-10:00First anon:
Working on the update now, and, her...First anon: <br /><br />Working on the update now, and, here in Hawaii, it's still technically "today." ;) 10:30 p.m. here.<br /><br />Second anon:<br /><br />His count of the correction is very similar to the one I posted in the Weekend Discussion charts. But I'm glad you shared it anyway, because he caught a potential ST triangle in the Dow that has caused me to update the max price to 12,093.50.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-69631329052875428102011-10-24T21:13:21.872-10:002011-10-24T21:13:21.872-10:00http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploa...http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/DJIA-120m-10-24-11-example.png<br /><br />what do you think of this count?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-52593984624798523162011-10-24T19:16:31.986-10:002011-10-24T19:16:31.986-10:00Im guessing the update is tomorrow and not today?Im guessing the update is tomorrow and not today?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-2478324354800824272011-10-24T18:18:42.068-10:002011-10-24T18:18:42.068-10:00Pretzel,
Do you use Gann angle for your analysis...Pretzel, <br /><br />Do you use Gann angle for your analysis?Franknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-37834264620503068242011-10-24T17:19:31.395-10:002011-10-24T17:19:31.395-10:00:):)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-59942996152723883782011-10-24T17:03:22.212-10:002011-10-24T17:03:22.212-10:00ah excited. I want to see it as wellah excited. I want to see it as wellAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-5591843318382021182011-10-24T16:52:27.387-10:002011-10-24T16:52:27.387-10:00Charting now for tomorrow's update... wait ...Charting now for tomorrow's update... wait 'til you see the SPX chart CTP.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-4147503003883340752011-10-24T15:46:02.189-10:002011-10-24T15:46:02.189-10:00CTP-
Thanks for the answer. That's pretty c...CTP- <br /><br />Thanks for the answer. That's pretty cool, actually.<br /><br />Just looking at the NDX chart now. On the 60 minute, you can see a very clear 1-2-3-4, and on the 5-minute, can see 1-2-3, with 4 likely in process. 5 is gonna practically bump its head on the prior high, which would be about perfect. <br /><br />I'm going to post those charts in tonight/tomorrow's update.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-38598561291296739332011-10-24T15:19:14.472-10:002011-10-24T15:19:14.472-10:00Pretzel,
Yes I am strongly in the camp that this ...Pretzel,<br /><br />Yes I am strongly in the camp that this is the C wave of a Minor 2 flat starting at the August low. Main reasons for that are that it is the only count that can be reconciled with NDX and it also fits with my cycle work.<br /><br />As far as a move the 1275 turning up my longer-term cycles, the answer to that is a bit complicated. Basically I have taken the Hurst methodology and have backtested various mechanical system based off of it. In doing that I only found 2 sub-cycles that could be used to form profitable trading system. The long-term cycles you refer were not consistent enough and to open to interpretation to be useful from my studies. So, in essence that way I use Hurst methods is unique and thus I would not expect to find anyone out there who would interpret the cycles the same way that I do. That said, a move to 1275 SPX would not turn my cycle work bullish.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-79190558374517307912011-10-24T14:44:12.553-10:002011-10-24T14:44:12.553-10:00blackjak-
We're talking short-intermediate te...blackjak-<br /><br />We're talking short-intermediate term on time frames. And yes, obviously I am favoring the next move as down... but there could be more pain for bears before that happens.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-33203106225759024752011-10-24T14:41:29.140-10:002011-10-24T14:41:29.140-10:00CTP, wouldn't a move to 1275 turn up all your ...CTP, wouldn't a move to 1275 turn up all your longer term cycles? I'm not really a Hurst guy, but that's what my Hurst trader friends are telling me.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-14831066939015034572011-10-24T14:37:52.123-10:002011-10-24T14:37:52.123-10:00CTP - at this point, if this is A, it would likely...CTP - at this point, if this is A, it would likely have to be part of a massive flat. Anything else, and the NDX blows up the counts.<br /><br />It certainly feels like a C wave of some form; this sure seems like 3rd wave energy. Most likely, it's either C of Minor (2) of the A-B-C alternate count going back into August (shown in black on the above charts), or it's C of the count shown in the last chart in this article... but again, I have a hard time seeing how that count won't blow up the NDX. <br /><br />That whole consolidation mess leading out of August is what makes this a challenge right now. There's no clear-cut form there, which leaves enough question marks to make this rally challenging to position. <br /><br />Even looking at 2007/early '08 analogs isn't much help. The wave structure preceeding that rally was cleaner, and this rally has been much more unrelenting than that one was.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-81659287637183662732011-10-24T14:32:50.950-10:002011-10-24T14:32:50.950-10:00blackjak,
I don't see a big move to the upsid...blackjak,<br /><br />I don't see a big move to the upside from here. I expect we are going to be topping over the next week and the next big move will be to the downside. Now that interpretation may change depending on the character of the next intermediate-term pullback but for now my expectation is ST pullback over next couple days, then one last ST pop to 1275 SPX before the bear resumes.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-22056862480246853652011-10-24T14:12:24.933-10:002011-10-24T14:12:24.933-10:00Rocky- 739 would be IF the alternate count has the...Rocky- 739 would be IF the alternate count has the correct placement for 1 and 3. The rally is far from crystal clear as to labeling, though, so there's definitely room for interpretation. I'm really looking forward to some nice impulse waves to the downside again... the wave structure is always much cleaner when they're moving in line with the larger trend. Counter-trend is always trickier; as are the major turning points at trend changes, imo.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-88716920555829785422011-10-24T13:00:36.607-10:002011-10-24T13:00:36.607-10:00Pretzel/CTP:
It sounds you both are certain a big...Pretzel/CTP:<br /><br />It sounds you both are certain a big move is coming for the markets. Direction is still unclear, but we should know more very shortly. Is it possible to have another big move up after a 17% move in 15 trading days? If the big move is going to be to the upside, what sort of time frame are we referring to (weeks, months, year, etc...)?blackjaknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-7966208159255371592011-10-24T11:26:15.338-10:002011-10-24T11:26:15.338-10:00I bought SPXU today. Hopefully it pans out.I bought SPXU today. Hopefully it pans out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-40887357156886449192011-10-24T11:13:39.079-10:002011-10-24T11:13:39.079-10:00I agree with CTP that this is a good spot to initi...I agree with CTP that this is a good spot to initiate short positions here, whether we are at:<br /><br />1) Pretzel's preferred count - approaching top of wave A ;<br />2) Pretzel's alternate count - approaching top of wave iii of v in Wave C<br /><br />These are good inflexion points to test short positions. Either wave there is potentially one more leg up so I guess I wouldn't get too<br /> leveraged in shorts here.., just testing the water<br /><br />GL to allFranknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-71261073203057353982011-10-24T10:00:24.410-10:002011-10-24T10:00:24.410-10:00FWIW I am flipping long to short at the close toda...FWIW I am flipping long to short at the close today.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-48112971403574260332011-10-24T09:56:00.445-10:002011-10-24T09:56:00.445-10:00I'm back... We're fading a bit into the cl...I'm back... We're fading a bit into the close and we came within 4 points of my 1261 target at the intraday high so that might have been it for wave 3 of 5 of C. Still could get a gap up tomorrow morning to finish it off but that would be a huge gift for shorting IMO... From here I would expect a pullback to hold either above 1233 or 1240 depending on whether the wave 4 low was on 10/18 or 10/20 (and I can come up with valid counts for either one). Basically 1233 has to hold for my preferred count to remain valid and to set up a further runup to 1275 SPX. Otherwise today was THE top of the rally from 10/4 which Pretzel counts as wave A but I am counting as wave C... Hope that wasn't to confusing. :)CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-54133316135868664812011-10-24T08:00:56.192-10:002011-10-24T08:00:56.192-10:00why again is 739 a steel beam above for the RUT?
I...why again is 739 a steel beam above for the RUT?<br />I'm in TZA right now, just wondering if I should hold on or bail at this point.RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-31511938369058480902011-10-24T07:44:13.581-10:002011-10-24T07:44:13.581-10:00Nope... it was a leading diagonal. Those tricky b...Nope... it was a leading diagonal. Those tricky bastards. Probably make a run at the 11940's now. All right, I'm outta here.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-51512165139601802032011-10-24T07:39:00.361-10:002011-10-24T07:39:00.361-10:00k, cyak, cyaPretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-4148695519732573922011-10-24T07:36:25.978-10:002011-10-24T07:36:25.978-10:00Gonna be away from the computer for the next coupl...Gonna be away from the computer for the next couple of hours. Expecting a finish at or close to the highs today and that should be a good short IMO...CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.com