tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post1428065828949908997..comments2024-03-25T08:04:19.119-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX and BKX Update: Next Move Should Be LowerPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger282125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-560378552586564582011-11-18T10:46:05.955-10:002011-11-18T10:46:05.955-10:00Here is an article from Market Watch on that subje...Here is an article from Market Watch on that subject.<br /><br />http://www.smartmoney.com/taxes/income/avoiding-the-wash-sale-rule-at-yearend-1321577774029/Michael Robertsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-35556802236740178512011-11-18T04:29:48.102-10:002011-11-18T04:29:48.102-10:00Okay, update's posted, so let's move discu...Okay, update's posted, so let's move discussion to that thread.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-13085364935077882402011-11-18T04:29:17.586-10:002011-11-18T04:29:17.586-10:00Yeah, I'm aware. He got upset about the blog ...Yeah, I'm aware. He got upset about the blog having some basic groundrules. Sorry to see him go, but that was his choice.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-30548338585763896992011-11-18T03:49:41.275-10:002011-11-18T03:49:41.275-10:00Pretzel are aware of why CTP has not been in the c...Pretzel are aware of why CTP has not been in the comments recently? So long as you know, I won't say anything more. I'm not trying to stir anything up.SpikerJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-46545519019751173892011-11-18T03:30:10.969-10:002011-11-18T03:30:10.969-10:00lol... working, almost done, I think...lol... working, almost done, I think...PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-76805774787184010102011-11-18T03:29:16.273-10:002011-11-18T03:29:16.273-10:00I'm dying for the update :). I need my mornin...I'm dying for the update :). I need my morning Pretzel fix...williamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-82492340984170449752011-11-18T03:29:15.766-10:002011-11-18T03:29:15.766-10:00A quick shout-out to James for his donation:
Than...A quick shout-out to James for his donation:<br /><br />Thanks very much, James, that was greatly appreciated! :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-38426874145027174582011-11-18T03:16:04.699-10:002011-11-18T03:16:04.699-10:00Wait 'til next week. ;)Wait 'til next week. ;)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-36777094905898037482011-11-18T03:08:19.221-10:002011-11-18T03:08:19.221-10:00Futures NEVER seem to be down ! Ever Futures NEVER seem to be down ! Ever vulture711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-48146956975570221092011-11-18T02:21:30.267-10:002011-11-18T02:21:30.267-10:00Tomorrow may be. There is a chance we have not ev...Tomorrow may be. There is a chance we have not even seen the internal third wave of this move yet. I am really wrestling with how to label the current move down. It may be much more bearish than I thought originally. It is entirely within the realm of possibility that we could see a "black Monday" crash -- Anon20 style. PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-17683268212583929392011-11-18T00:55:45.191-10:002011-11-18T00:55:45.191-10:00PL,
Agree. If we consider an extended fifth wave...PL,<br /><br />Agree. If we consider an extended fifth wave in the wave count, the crude already reached the target of 161.8% of the range from the beginning of Wave 1 to the end of Wave 3. Raynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-26792944316604853192011-11-18T00:09:53.169-10:002011-11-18T00:09:53.169-10:00Just saw the futes tending up. Makes me wonder if...Just saw the futes tending up. Makes me wonder if tomorrow may be all about opex. And the market will get back to the reality of the world's larger unfolding disaster next week.brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-84421966732724028872011-11-17T22:57:13.390-10:002011-11-17T22:57:13.390-10:00OH, hi KB! Glad to see you back, and glad the art...OH, hi KB! Glad to see you back, and glad the article was helpful. :)<br /><br />I couldn't agree more that sometimes knowing when NOT to act is as valuable as knowing when TO act. Not only in trading, but in life itself.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-54271722497304538972011-11-17T22:51:53.525-10:002011-11-17T22:51:53.525-10:00Thanks, betoq!
I've heard that from a handful...Thanks, betoq!<br /><br />I've heard that from a handful of other classical TA analysts who either don't know how to apply EWT, or haven't encountered anyone who does (EWT attracts a lot of dillettantes, so like most things in life, the truly good analysts are in the minority). <br /><br />I've said this before, but the difference between EWT and regular TA is regular TA is more of "a no-brainer." Anybody can spot a triangle, or a head and shoulders. EWT on the other hand is 50% science (and a complicated science, at that) and 50% "art" for lack of a better term. That's another reason you end up with so many analysts in disagreement. The patterns aren't clear-cut the way usual TA is. <br /><br />As a timely example of this, earlier today I said we had made the turn at the triangle boundary and the move would accellerate lower once the LOD was taken, but Rocky (Christopher) thought we were in a b-wave down with c-up still to come before the turn. We each interpreted the pattern a little differently, because it ISN'T a cut and dried "here's the support line" type of thing.<br /><br />With Elliott, SOOOOOO much is left to the individual analyst, which is why it's so time consuming for me. And oftentimes, the charts are vague and/or confusing -- so I don't chart one index each night, I chart about 20; that allows me to look for cross-currents, counter-currents, and confirmation/denial of potential patterns. It's also one of the reasons I get a tad annoyed when people parrot my work, then try to take credit for it as if were their own. It's one thing to see a great chart and recognize its value, it's entirely another to put in the time and investigation to actually *create* that chart. It would be a bit like someone running prints of your painstaking original artwork and then trying to pass it off as their own. <br /><br />Anyway, as far as classical TA goes, I respect it and use it, but I find classic TA to be somewhat limited. Often it can only trade the patterns *after* a break -- talk about backward-looking! When used at its best, Elliott (as you saw today) can tell you IF the pattern will break, which direction it's most likely to go when it does, and what prices are likely to do afterwards.<br /><br />I could go on and on (roughly forever) about Elliott Wave -- obviously, it's a passion for me. :) I just love the way it's challenging on so many different levels. Even though the market drives me batty sometimes, that's half the fun. There's nothing more rewarding than wrestling with an exceptionally challenging market and still coming out on top. PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-66721443688585355502011-11-17T22:15:32.503-10:002011-11-17T22:15:32.503-10:00Yup love the commentary pretz! ThanksYup love the commentary pretz! Thanksmavrichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-49421286850016627392011-11-17T22:09:41.946-10:002011-11-17T22:09:41.946-10:00IN spirit of not talking "all market all the ...IN spirit of not talking "all market all the time" here's a subject change. Maybe a sidebar item. Preparing a US tax return - has anyone suggestions on how to work the wash sale rule regarding adding losses to the basis in losing short/cover trades? <br /><br />That one ought to make a person sit back and think. <br /><br />The sale/cover data can be downloaded in Excel from the broker, but it is in their transaction lots not mine (I short 500 shares, they report transactions of 100, 100,200,50,50 and then they are broken up differently on the cover. I (think) I need to make a spreadsheet to work the dates, #shares, loss/gain, loss to basis, etc and it is boggeling my mind. Any thoughts? Ideal would be " Yeah, here try mine" <br /><br /> I have a pretty good spreadsheet to do a 1120S return (I use it for a construction company) if anyone needs such. <br /><br />Just a thought.<br /><br />Timestamp Fri 1:05 amGertnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-89857569963738443962011-11-17T21:58:04.662-10:002011-11-17T21:58:04.662-10:00Pretz - Really great analysis lately and I persona...Pretz - Really great analysis lately and I personally think the explanation of your alternate and preferred counts is very helpful. As a horeseplayer for 25 years, or 30,000 hours of mastery experience (or as my wife calls it, years of wasted time - damn ungrateful woman, LOL), I have learned thru years and thousands upon thousands of dollars a great deal about analysis, but my most important lesson, and the toughest of all, has been money management and knowing when to wager and more importantly when not to. When my analysis gives me several equally weighted probabilities and I dont see good risk reward probabilities in my favor, I stay out completely - that is a hard discipline to burn in your brain. So when you say cash is a position, I couldn't agree more. When you try to hit home runs every day, you will find your capital dwindle very rapidly. I used to try to bet every single race with equal weight and you just can't be successful doing that. Now, I find myself making very strategic plays and fewer of them. Anyway, your article on Prospect Theory on Tuesday was great, and it definitely touched home with me.<br /><br />Looks like it was a tough day in the Asian Markets today!<br />Got this tweet today of an interview with Gordan Chang discussing China and I thought I would share FWIW:<br />http://www.caseyresearch.com/cwc/gordon-chang-forbes-columnist-and-authorLILJUDGEnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-61349094298801936832011-11-17T21:52:00.310-10:002011-11-17T21:52:00.310-10:00Before I found your blog,Iwas following a pretty f...Before I found your blog,Iwas following a pretty fair technical analyst that does daily videos with charts and he nailed several good turns but when we hit the oct. lows He completely missed it,I think because He is pretty much a permabear(nothing wrong with that I guess) and ignored some of his own indicators that didn't fit his outlook, anyway, his opinion of EW was that you could not rely on it for trading but only as a look back indicator because so many ellioticians could not agree on the counts.Ihave only been following you for a week and already see that He is completey wrong about that.also He did not have a comment section and that sucked big time.no feedback.betoqhttp://twitter.com/betoq01noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-23192026252362667642011-11-17T21:40:38.013-10:002011-11-17T21:40:38.013-10:00Holy crap, I think I see what happened. There is ...Holy crap, I think I see what happened. There is a LOT of downward pressure on the market, and it was causing chart distortion -- like prices were advancing into a headwind almost. Charts need a slight tweak, but it makes them *more* bearish. PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-82226765960316615972011-11-17T21:34:00.974-10:002011-11-17T21:34:00.974-10:00I'm really torn on the counts here. Getting s...I'm really torn on the counts here. Getting some mixed messages from the charts tonight, but from what I'm seeing, this thing looks like it wants to waterfall right through support (with brief pauses, like today). <br /><br />Need to keep charting, but I know mav and a few others like the "running commentary."PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-79383082510424683372011-11-17T21:27:09.093-10:002011-11-17T21:27:09.093-10:00Crude needs to be adjusted. Still pretty sure we ...Crude needs to be adjusted. Still pretty sure we made a top, but the count was off by a little (I think I had 100.62 as the max, and we broke that). Actually, looks like Ray was right (kudos Ray!) on the extended fifth wave in crude. Looks like we got an extended fifth to the extended fifth. <br /><br />Top's probably in.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-51340248839394501932011-11-17T21:24:00.959-10:002011-11-17T21:24:00.959-10:00I'm looking at all these charts, and watching ...I'm looking at all these charts, and watching the futures, which are still holding the 1210 level... but I think when yesterday's low breaks, futures are gonna make a quick trip down to 1190 +/-. ES looks to be in a fourth wave -- we *could* gap down tomorrow.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-16415887161686910172011-11-17T21:15:18.144-10:002011-11-17T21:15:18.144-10:00PL, is crude oil chart still on after going past...PL, is crude oil chart still on after going past your max top or does it need to be adjusted?betoqhttp://twitter.com/betoq01noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-50882659593353628922011-11-17T21:13:23.868-10:002011-11-17T21:13:23.868-10:00Also Arnie, re: short for the first time...
Welco...Also Arnie, re: short for the first time...<br /><br />Welcome to the dark side... :oPretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-67047338104529408992011-11-17T21:06:12.502-10:002011-11-17T21:06:12.502-10:00got it ,thanksgot it ,thanksbetoqhttp://twitter.com/betoq01noreply@blogger.com