tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post1633648849859927902..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: Market Ripe for at Least a One-Day RallyPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger316125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-16232860219290556402012-02-02T01:25:28.919-10:002012-02-02T01:25:28.919-10:00Hmmmm. Kinda looks a lot like this. Or perhaps thi...Hmmmm. Kinda looks a lot like <a href="http://barchart.com/charts/stocks/$MMTW" rel="nofollow">this</a>. Or perhaps <a href="http://barchart.com/charts/stocks/$MMFI" rel="nofollow">this</a>. Check 'em out on a 1-year time frame.CalDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-84335231763557394552012-02-01T21:32:23.975-10:002012-02-01T21:32:23.975-10:00Oh, I realize that. We all are. But I do believe...Oh, I realize that. We all are. But I do believe we generally represent a more "market savvy" group than the average John and Mary Lunchbucket small fish retail crowd. ;) <br />________________________________Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-8870178855089051322012-02-01T21:24:12.681-10:002012-02-01T21:24:12.681-10:00I used to think earning season is Russian roulette...I used to think earning season is Russian roulette. This is an eye-opener. My jaw drops.Dust Devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-18109599731173246372012-02-01T21:19:05.962-10:002012-02-01T21:19:05.962-10:00Wow! Thanks for sharing this. This is one of the g...Wow! Thanks for sharing this. This is one of the great things about this blog, all the amazing stuff that other people can bring to my attention.Dust Devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-80028559994027321302012-02-01T21:18:07.526-10:002012-02-01T21:18:07.526-10:00You're a small fish, Pretzel. The truth hurts....You're a small fish, Pretzel. The truth hurts. ;-)Dust Devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-37064802275825530762012-02-01T21:14:44.328-10:002012-02-01T21:14:44.328-10:00Me too. Many individual issues are screaming over...Me too. Many individual issues are screaming overbought like a cornered wild animal, but they just won't fall or even correct!Authentic1noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-66916636036751877482012-02-01T20:35:24.847-10:002012-02-01T20:35:24.847-10:00Don't know if market timers with good track re...Don't know if market timers with good track records are big fish or little fish, but these particular aquatic animals are currently ranging from moderately bullish to outright bullish. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-groundhog-will-see-2012-02-01Dust Devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-30518648036146946712012-02-01T20:30:26.591-10:002012-02-01T20:30:26.591-10:00Okay, update's posted, so let's continue f...Okay, update's posted, so let's continue future discussion over there. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-25630131214827889502012-02-01T20:04:53.250-10:002012-02-01T20:04:53.250-10:00I told you it was a KILLER, but did you listen? O...I told you it was a KILLER, but did you listen? Oh, no. "It's just a harmless little bunny."matsterynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-62224306642500246622012-02-01T20:03:30.041-10:002012-02-01T20:03:30.041-10:00if you don't "see" an entry point wi...if you don't "see" an entry point with good R/R (risk/reward), then wait until you do. Remember, cash is a position. Jacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-34176551124131331282012-02-01T19:57:24.194-10:002012-02-01T19:57:24.194-10:00Joe Granville, he was THE hot newsletter writer ba...Joe Granville, he was THE hot newsletter writer back in the 70's when I first got started on the street. Evidently he's still vertical and givin' it his all. What a flash from the past. thanks for the post.Jacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-19967042133919672852012-02-01T19:37:38.752-10:002012-02-01T19:37:38.752-10:00Thank you very much...these do seem to be treacher...Thank you very much...these do seem to be treacherous times. Katzo gave me some simple, basic guidelines to go by. Definitely trying to keep it simple at this point...I've had some successes that I think were just luck in hindsight. The failures were really well planned though. :)jbg1911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-8425634384931231152012-02-01T19:28:47.803-10:002012-02-01T19:28:47.803-10:00This isn't the easiest market for a newb to le...This isn't the easiest market for a newb to learn anything, TA-wise. When all the indicators are failing or behaving abnormally, it makes for tough going. But you have to start somewhere, and the experience is always valuable.<br /><br />The best thing for a newb to learn in this environment would be how to manage their trades safely. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-1631914948160766472012-02-01T19:24:44.402-10:002012-02-01T19:24:44.402-10:00I pay a lot of attention to retailer traders (smal...I pay a lot of attention to retailer traders (small fish). RYDEX funds make a good proxy. Lately, retailers are very bullish. This is another reason that I think the bull case is the "easy" choice, as I've said before. If it wasn't easy, so many little guys would *not* be doing it.<br /><br />Here's a chart from one of my subscription services (Sentimentrader) that shows how bullish small traders have become.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-11422746100772306792012-02-01T19:23:40.252-10:002012-02-01T19:23:40.252-10:00Yea - maybe the market will get the message and cu...Yea - maybe the market will get the message and cut the levitating out.Ronchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-15670560270653624812012-02-01T19:22:47.227-10:002012-02-01T19:22:47.227-10:00Does it make the counts more difficult or just ill...Does it make the counts more difficult or just illogical? The reason I ask is that would this just be the wrong time for a newb to "learn" EW?jbg1911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-52066453844507744232012-02-01T19:19:24.723-10:002012-02-01T19:19:24.723-10:00This type of market behavior? Yes. This type of market behavior? Yes. Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-45515791914264065012012-02-01T19:17:27.392-10:002012-02-01T19:17:27.392-10:00A month or so ago I ran across this guy who has an...A month or so ago I ran across this guy who has an MT swing trading system based on data mining and regression analysis of Commitments of Traders reports. Basically he looks for convergences and divergences between the three or four groups tracked in the reports (producers in the case of commodities, commercial traders, funds, and small unregistered traders) and in some cases there's a delay built into the signal to increase his odds of catching the meaty part of the slope. <br /><br />As regards ES, his system flashed a sell signal two weeks ago, with a 3 week delay, suggesting that he should short the SPX on Feb 6. I should mention that his system hasn't exactly been setting the world <br />on fire lately but historically he seems to have done OK and the basic strategy for the signal --fading small traders, following big ones -- made intuitive sense to me. Seems to me that any time you see the big fish and the small fish swimming in opposite directions, there's a good chance they're on a collision course and if so, that it's unlikely to end well for small fish in general.CalDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-60872907784458543252012-02-01T19:16:47.927-10:002012-02-01T19:16:47.927-10:00lmao, the commentator, "Dow's gonna drop ...lmao, the commentator, "Dow's gonna drop 4000 points? I think that's the most bearish thing I've ever heard! Certainly the most bearish thing I've heard in the last 6 months." The commentator obviously hasn't looked at my long term charts. :DPretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-85206167729819937422012-02-01T19:15:43.405-10:002012-02-01T19:15:43.405-10:00Your doing fine PL...just a lot of artificial nons...Your doing fine PL...just a lot of artificial nonsense altering things a bit. Have you seen this type of behavior in the past?jbg1911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-50200864161904957942012-02-01T19:12:10.553-10:002012-02-01T19:12:10.553-10:00I heard that Pretzel guy made the top call a few d...I heard that Pretzel guy made the top call a few days ago. Good confidence builder having Joe on board, he's been around a little longer than I have. He's sure getting up there in years. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-47186961293836537902012-02-01T19:08:05.684-10:002012-02-01T19:08:05.684-10:00Hi, Wolvie, welcome!
I agree.Hi, Wolvie, welcome!<br /><br />I agree.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-23700401814213570522012-02-01T19:01:33.446-10:002012-02-01T19:01:33.446-10:00 Joe Granville says market has topped - DJIA to fa... Joe Granville says market has topped - DJIA to fall 4.000 points in 2012<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84758540/Ronchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-15837709219909937312012-02-01T18:54:17.041-10:002012-02-01T18:54:17.041-10:00Yeah, it's definitely calling for a pullback i...Yeah, it's definitely calling for a pullback in the worst way. But what I'm afraid of is that it won't take much of a pullback to ease the overbought conditions and then the market just heads off on new highs yet again. That <i>'could'</i> happen even though I can see some pretty compelling reasons why the stock markets should lose 90+% of their value just like the Baltic Dry has done in the past 3 hears. TWICE!<br /><br />They're gettin' to me DD. They really are.Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-64431481385275676692012-02-01T18:47:18.453-10:002012-02-01T18:47:18.453-10:00Here's another angle to the question:
In the ...Here's another angle to the question:<br /><br />In the summer/fall of 2010, were things from a TA perspective stretched to resistance the way they are now (and yet, they somehow broke the TA rules and broken through all of them)?<br /><br />http://m3financialsense.blogspot.com/2012/02/charts-of-wild-market.html<br /><br />It's almost we need another class of analysis that deals specifically with distortions in massive CB intervened environment... this could prevent a lot of small investors from getting hammered.<br /><br />Good to see everyone share one's confusion! (well, not good we're all confused, but you know what I mean). baksunoreply@blogger.com