tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post1828648828498855481..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: 'Twas the Top Before Christmas?PretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger283125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-56529113227968852612011-12-27T02:53:55.827-10:002011-12-27T02:53:55.827-10:00PL - interesting point on USD/Euro and the SPX -- ...PL - interesting point on USD/Euro and the SPX -- one scenario that may get more traction and catch participants off guard is the following: everyone has been "trained" to watch USD/EUR to figure out where SPX is going - but the ECB tarp that is formally known as LTRO is effectively QE - once they report that they are having difficulty sterilizing - so this will be determined to be inflationary in the long term and the Euro will decline against the USD while the SPX will go higher as the wave of liquidity/inflation will raise the equity world. Not my preferred scenario - pretty sure not Anon20 either...... but - seems to be unfolding - as you pointed out in your piece today with the divergence in performance.potusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-77497834869520299832011-12-26T21:01:56.288-10:002011-12-26T21:01:56.288-10:00Okay, updates posted. Let's continue future d...Okay, updates posted. Let's continue future discussion on that thread. If you wish to reply to something on this thread, please take it over there and start with "re: (whatever)." In a perfect world, you guys would replace "whatever" with the topic you're addressing. ;)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-10873364622331966142011-12-26T18:51:15.745-10:002011-12-26T18:51:15.745-10:00PL and Board,
Hypothetically speaking, if you had ...PL and Board,<br />Hypothetically speaking, if you had to buy an ETF shorting the market would you play FAZ or TZA? I see more upside to TZA but the financials should get crushed in the next fallout. I am looking for max leverage and already have TVIX and want another play.<br />Thanks<br />BearBearnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-77332551338559559842011-12-26T17:55:43.094-10:002011-12-26T17:55:43.094-10:00The housing deflation continues, as per the failur...The housing deflation continues, as per the failure of QE in that regard. Friend of mine in Seattle continues to wait for the better deal. Houses just keep dropping in price.<br /><br />Oil is hard to tell, in my mind, whether inflationary or deflationary, since there was some kind of bubble in 2008. Bubbles in themselves distorts.dust_devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74810372864707335722011-12-26T17:55:33.290-10:002011-12-26T17:55:33.290-10:00Uh, QE has one uber purpose that you fail to recog...Uh, QE has one uber purpose that you fail to recognize: the survival and continuation of the mechanisms and structures of the the welfare state. Especially insofar as they enable constituency pay offs and vote buying. <br /><br />The effects on the markets, especially commodity and asset prices, is ONLY important to those behind the interventions insofar as those effects impact the welfare state and its structures and mechanisms. After that, the Fed really doesn't huge a fuck what happens to the dollar, oil, equities, real estate, or anything else. <br /><br />The welfare state depends more than anything eler upon varying levels of IMPOVERISHMENT, scarcity and unfulfilled needs. Otherwise it has no justification for its existence. <br /><br />Therefore, PRICES MUST BE HIGH. For pretty much everything.brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-34517632653563907972011-12-26T17:21:09.449-10:002011-12-26T17:21:09.449-10:00My understanding is that QE is Fed's tool to f...My understanding is that QE is Fed's tool to fight deflation. They wanted sufficiently high inflation as buffer to avoid repeating the Japanese experience. But not too hot to impede economic expansion.<br /><br />So far, it seems, they are getting what they wanted.AFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-2143893543030758642011-12-26T17:07:20.046-10:002011-12-26T17:07:20.046-10:00you seem to be building a case for the failure of ...you seem to be building a case for the failure of qebastiatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-34373818233025774242011-12-26T16:48:51.629-10:002011-12-26T16:48:51.629-10:00Let's look at some concrete examples:
Interes...Let's look at some concrete examples:<br /><br />Interest rates are lowest on record - all those QE's notwithstanding.<br />Oil price is now lower than Jan 07 - before QE<br />S&P is trading at historically low PE - after all those QE's<br />House prices - need I say more. :)AFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-71861194572730784972011-12-26T16:19:17.482-10:002011-12-26T16:19:17.482-10:00AF, QE distorts markets and creates bubbles, it h...AF, QE distorts markets and creates bubbles, it has created a major inflation/bubble in commoditities. In a debt-saturated ecnomy as we have ( in liquidity trap) more liquidity does nothing but to cause these distortions!!Frednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-21263654544433526372011-12-26T15:45:22.234-10:002011-12-26T15:45:22.234-10:00The main objection of critics of US Fed's QE&#...The main objection of critics of US Fed's QE's is that liquidity causes inflation. So far, it hasn't happen, so the claim is that it will come sometime down the road. The Fed argues, however, that as long as there is high unemployment, real sustainable inflation will not happen.<br /><br />Facts are not supportive of the inflation claim. Price of copper dropped 21% y-o-y, cotton 45%, etc. Natural gas has been dropping like stone. Oil may be holding its ground, but is not marching into threatening levels. Moreover, today's automobiles are very energy efficient.<br /><br />To me, QE jihadists need more persuasive reasons for their objection.AFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-45703988932086340262011-12-26T14:53:00.461-10:002011-12-26T14:53:00.461-10:00Thanks Ray, you went right over my head.Thanks Ray, you went right over my head.Frednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-8324355592958952382011-12-26T14:16:47.008-10:002011-12-26T14:16:47.008-10:00LOL if someone can please explain to me why Kim Ka...LOL if someone can please explain to me why Kim Kardashian is famous (and yes I know why, rhetorical statement in nature). There is no doubt that American culture is and has been degrading for sometime . I'm just glad I got to grow up through the boom times. But if for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, then I suppose it is only fair that the bust be of equal magnitude to that of the boom of the past 30 years.robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-79170266929624851772011-12-26T14:10:52.970-10:002011-12-26T14:10:52.970-10:00Guys, first and foremost, merry Xmas for all ye be...Guys, first and foremost, merry Xmas for all ye believers, and for the rest, happy winter solstice...or summer solstice (for those south of the equator). <br /><br />I usually don't comment on these things. I'm more so entertained than anything else, but has anyone ever considered that the guy's just messing with you, and the more people respond (positively or negatively), the more he's just going to keep it up? Just a thought. I mean, in a twisted way, A20 is right. We're all going to die one day, and all this will not matter a whole lot. The important thing is to have a little fun along the way...and to try not to trip over your kids new goddamn toys!<br /><br />Happy holidays to all!Juannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-51782710065135912562011-12-26T13:54:10.096-10:002011-12-26T13:54:10.096-10:00Yesterday, I was reading this year-old report in T...Yesterday, I was reading this year-old report in The Economist (http://www.economist.com/node/16397110?story_id=16397110) which presents the debt levels of the various countries. There is no exact point of no return, but surprisingly to me, France, Germany, and the UK are approaching the danger zone if you take into their GDP. When you read the news, it gives you the impression that Germany and France are financially strong and quite able to bail out Greece etc, just that they really don't want to. But this article highlight how conditional their situations are.dust_devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-51926880597128788472011-12-26T13:35:23.386-10:002011-12-26T13:35:23.386-10:00I agree with your "nails in the coffin" ...I agree with your "nails in the coffin" and was wondering if you had heard of any info on the world wide debt saturation point that would cause market interest rates to rise. I read a while back that 15 to 25 trillion, can't believe I just wrote that, in the US is the breaking point and that investors would start to demand higher rates. I have heard or read nothing on Europe and Japan. I realize that monetizing debt will absorb some of this but at some point rates will go up and the incremental costs to nations will be untenable. Just wondered if you or anyone else has read any info on this. Merry Christmas.Neelynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-60544678525440830112011-12-26T13:11:48.293-10:002011-12-26T13:11:48.293-10:00Hi PL,
Thanks for the comments.Hi PL, <br /><br />Thanks for the comments.Raynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-30317570771236794912011-12-26T13:11:42.272-10:002011-12-26T13:11:42.272-10:00I'm still a bear. I'm still a bear. Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-61212870434269224222011-12-26T13:10:43.030-10:002011-12-26T13:10:43.030-10:00Very good actually. :)Very good actually. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-89482871064751825982011-12-26T13:07:52.362-10:002011-12-26T13:07:52.362-10:00ha, i guess my counting maybe isn't that bad!?...ha, i guess my counting maybe isn't that bad!? encouraging. soulsurferusanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-67635971759269340792011-12-26T13:06:22.063-10:002011-12-26T13:06:22.063-10:00so true, but the facts (TI's) aren't there...so true, but the facts (TI's) aren't there yet. I want to see the SSTO top and the put/call ratio drop some more. Then everybody is uber bullish and that's when to go short (and/or place a long put option). soulsurferusanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-28057740802827251572011-12-26T13:02:04.751-10:002011-12-26T13:02:04.751-10:00bullish sentiment is increasing...that's beari...bullish sentiment is increasing...that's bearish...<br /><br />cheersThierrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-29028476092423909892011-12-26T13:01:48.619-10:002011-12-26T13:01:48.619-10:00Actually, that's exactly how I have it labeled...Actually, that's exactly how I have it labeled on my 1-minute chart. Yes, that looks likely to me. If that's correct, it implies a cap of roughly 1295 SPX for the bullish count. <br /> <br /> Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-18434242933623525052011-12-26T12:58:38.595-10:002011-12-26T12:58:38.595-10:00PL, that's what i am thinking too. Or as the W...PL, that's what i am thinking too. Or as the WSJ says "there are only 4 trading days -on light volume- left for the year and we're just barely in the black since friday, so anything -regardlessly- will make this year unsatisfactory for both bears and bulls alike" (see also my long previous post.)<br /><br />I also liked the WSJ's argument of drifting higher this week. By definition "to drift" means moving along aimlessly, (on a current of air [hot air...lol] without direction. I can see that happen and it would satisfy your 1269-1310 target as well as your "fool 'em all" head fake-out. <br /><br />I didn't do any of my (bad ;-) ) counting, but could friday's close be the start of wave 5?<br /><br />Personally, I am not sure if I want to trade this week if it turns out to be an aimless (doji-rich) week. Unless there's a clear up or down signal (not much up left as we're getting into over-bought range)soulsurferusanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-5690646324199323522011-12-26T12:49:52.697-10:002011-12-26T12:49:52.697-10:00Also I would add that the mass psychology has been...Also I would add that the mass psychology has been more characteristic of a 2nd wave than a 4th wave. Persistant bullishness.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-57545405633157420642011-12-26T12:27:58.713-10:002011-12-26T12:27:58.713-10:00Quick update, since I haven't been working muc...Quick update, since I haven't been working much (yay! needed this break) and don't have the full update complete:<br /><br />The SPX target under the bullish alternate count is 1269-1310.<br /><br />So it might already be topping, though we may see a bit of mucking around early in the week.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.com