tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post213090570483277028..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX and NDX Update: Targets Hit Again; and the Long-Term ProjectionsPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger195125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-30122669491966341062011-12-16T03:35:15.608-10:002011-12-16T03:35:15.608-10:00I like it when you explain this long term stuff. ...I like it when you explain this long term stuff. Guess it is the history buff in me.SpikerJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-76281738025653935462011-12-16T03:19:19.355-10:002011-12-16T03:19:19.355-10:00You are right there is a triangle and we are on th...You are right there is a triangle and we are on the basePaolohttp://trend-borsa.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-19253452629404443072011-12-16T03:00:04.065-10:002011-12-16T03:00:04.065-10:00Okay, update's posted, so let's continue d...Okay, update's posted, so let's continue discussion on that thread.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-7373368469736293652011-12-16T01:50:55.704-10:002011-12-16T01:50:55.704-10:00Hey Mav - we should know by the opening bell wheth...Hey Mav - we should know by the opening bell whether they paid the creditors in full or not. The rub is that they are trying to negotiate a haircut on existing debt (debt not held by ECB or IMF - which happens to be 60% of the total - but that's a different discussion). So the issue is - you are negotiating to pay existing creditors 50% on the dollar but you are obliged to pay creditors due today - 100 cents on the dollar - makes for interesting negotiations. It has not been disclosed whether the creditors holding the paper due today and Monday are the ECB/IMF or the "riff raff" public bondholders.potusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-87856419585279055162011-12-16T00:06:02.305-10:002011-12-16T00:06:02.305-10:00"alternation" that is, lol."alternation" that is, lol.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-38465681250756814192011-12-15T23:21:10.433-10:002011-12-15T23:21:10.433-10:00I don't like these charts at all. I think som...I don't like these charts at all. I think someone else should do tomorrow's update. Who wants to take a crack at it? :oPretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-33068531347188978992011-12-15T22:28:22.449-10:002011-12-15T22:28:22.449-10:00ouch. it's difficult to have good hands, but ...ouch. it's difficult to have good hands, but way more difficult to have the nuts and a big pot to come along with it. i must have played thousands of hours of poker, and while i have had str flushes five times, i never had a four of a kindTJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-24212767789412634932011-12-15T22:16:54.148-10:002011-12-15T22:16:54.148-10:00Ah, yes, the old fat finger. Fat finger has cost ...Ah, yes, the old fat finger. Fat finger has cost me several thousand dollars over the years. I'll never forget the time in '08 I thought I had entered a sell stop to short ES, and instead entered a buy stop. So I covered my existing contracts and went net long when I meant to *add* shorts. I didn't realize this until the market had dropped another 10 points. THAT sucked. Then there was the time on Party Poker that I mistakingly folded FOUR OF A KIND kings by hitting the wrong button, on an $800 pot. That sucked too. Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-73793154401227760302011-12-15T22:11:59.016-10:002011-12-15T22:11:59.016-10:0012 days but if you take away the weekends and holi...12 days but if you take away the weekends and holidays, only 7. and my strike is 17600 :)<br />that was my initial intention, and i did add around theresistenace, but my fat finger hit an extra 0 to the amount i wanted to buy.<br /><br />anyway, that's resolved now, took a hit on 70% of that position, but will keep 30% for a showdown next weekTJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-84754658887809688612011-12-15T22:08:12.658-10:002011-12-15T22:08:12.658-10:00If it's back-testing the triangle shown on my ...If it's back-testing the triangle shown on my chart, that's where you ADD positions. You cover if it breaks above the resistance line. How long you have 'til expiry?Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-84767164056571527412011-12-15T22:06:41.459-10:002011-12-15T22:06:41.459-10:00haha you are tempting me. for some reason though,...haha you are tempting me. for some reason though, after i closed out half my positions, HSI is dropping...i knew i always have excellent timing abilitiesTJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-46976901779973106072011-12-15T22:02:06.007-10:002011-12-15T22:02:06.007-10:00ES could be very close to topping out here...ES could be very close to topping out here...Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-89621580631743713062011-12-15T22:01:17.636-10:002011-12-15T22:01:17.636-10:00By the way, really appreciate your help. too bad ...By the way, really appreciate your help. too bad I can't afford to take this 50/50 gamble with expiry so close. would love to make a second donation from this profitTJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-47923931673821572322011-12-15T21:59:55.034-10:002011-12-15T21:59:55.034-10:00Sigh, if it is an ABC to 1230, then I should close...Sigh, if it is an ABC to 1230, then I should close out those puts. when it is so close to expiry, the decay is crazyTJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-87093877061388362742011-12-15T21:54:41.005-10:002011-12-15T21:54:41.005-10:00I honestly haven't even looked yet. Got on fo...I honestly haven't even looked yet. Got on for a little bit earlier and replied to a few folks, then my system went down and I just got it back up and did yer chart. :)<br /><br />First glance would be ABC to about 1230ish... but I have to re-examine the larger structures in light of today's action, which I haven't done yet.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-86729511662375256332011-12-15T21:48:17.348-10:002011-12-15T21:48:17.348-10:00Great, thanks! What is your quick read on possible...Great, thanks! What is your quick read on possible SPX movements today? I guess whether HSI goes up or down from here depends on tonights actionTJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-9586164016451905712011-12-15T21:48:02.142-10:002011-12-15T21:48:02.142-10:00btw, the "measured move" of the triangle...btw, the "measured move" of the triangle breakdown is about 4000 points. Should get to 17,600 at the minimum, though, assuming no whipsaw.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-80459108660243768662011-12-15T21:44:17.208-10:002011-12-15T21:44:17.208-10:00Hurrah, it worked.Hurrah, it worked.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-70378290917331244062011-12-15T21:43:36.348-10:002011-12-15T21:43:36.348-10:00I hate Disqus...I hate Disqus...Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-87213958570462213472011-12-15T21:42:08.631-10:002011-12-15T21:42:08.631-10:00Attempt #2
Assuming Stockcharts data is correct,...Attempt #2<br /> <br />Assuming Stockcharts data is correct, it appears to be below triangle support right now. Usually, when a stock or index breaks a support level, it "returns to the scene of the crime" to backtest that level. If the old support line then stops the advance (i.e.- becomes resistance), then it's off to the races on the decline. If it doesn't hold as resistance, then ya gots yerself a whipsaw. More than 3% penetration of the line is considered a failure. <br /> <br />The blue lines are the "triangle."<br /> <br />The red horizontal lines are areas of long-term support/resistance.<br /> <br />The black lines are the "essense" of the down-trending channel.<br /> Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-52114538241355219622011-12-15T21:41:47.606-10:002011-12-15T21:41:47.606-10:00wtf, where's the chart... lemme try it at the ...wtf, where's the chart... lemme try it at the top.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74662842314599549352011-12-15T21:41:26.766-10:002011-12-15T21:41:26.766-10:00Did this chart just for you, TJ. :)
Assuming St...Did this chart just for you, TJ. :)<br /> <br />Assuming Stockcharts data is correct, it appears to be below triangle support right now. Usually, when a stock or index breaks a support level, it "returns to the scene of the crime" to backtest that level. If the old support line then stops the advance (i.e.- becomes resistance), then it's off to the races on the decline. If it doesn't hold as resistance, then ya gots yerself a whipsaw. More than 3% penetration of the line is considered a failure. <br /> <br />The blue lines are the "triangle."<br /> <br />The red horizontal lines are areas of long-term support/resistance.<br /> <br />The black lines are the "essense" of the down-trending channel.<br /> Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-52208448346619510872011-12-15T21:37:57.171-10:002011-12-15T21:37:57.171-10:00Thanks Paolo, the only issue is i am holding puts ...Thanks Paolo, the only issue is i am holding puts that expire on 28th Dec 11. hate to be right about the direction and wrong on the timingTJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-6509361173761902482011-12-15T21:34:37.491-10:002011-12-15T21:34:37.491-10:00HSI is likely to go for a lower minimum as the Cop...HSI is likely to go for a lower minimum as the Coppock Curve is in a negative territory and the Primary plus the Long Term Trends are like fried eggs; no recovery is in sightPaolohttp://trend-borsa.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-86180264599771596672011-12-15T21:20:58.247-10:002011-12-15T21:20:58.247-10:00thanks. already bleeding on it, will take my loss...thanks. already bleeding on it, will take my losses and close out now if it doesn't look good STTJNnoreply@blogger.com