tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post2388437985413713472..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: Slight Adjustment Still Leaves the Big Picture BearishPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger117125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-3361039016155206132011-11-04T03:37:09.038-10:002011-11-04T03:37:09.038-10:00My pleasure, jaco.
New update is posted, so let&#...My pleasure, jaco.<br /><br />New update is posted, so let's continue any discussion on that thread.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-9092685737097129682011-11-04T03:20:44.412-10:002011-11-04T03:20:44.412-10:00Thanks for all the great charts and insights Pretz...Thanks for all the great charts and insights Pretzel!<br /><br />JSE a little down today, but my shorts nicely down - really had nowhere to go. If the US doesn't rally tonight it provides more proof to the notion that news is just noise what with Greek referendum now off the table. Especially if Papadreou makes his confidence vote.<br /><br />Of course I don't believe it would have any effect either way...jacostrausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02542311353896984645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-54683472666114660552011-11-04T02:41:24.652-10:002011-11-04T02:41:24.652-10:00Futures spiked, now selling off hard, down 5. I r...Futures spiked, now selling off hard, down 5. I really favor a new high yet still, though. I think we're in a small fourth wave -- that's my best guess anyway. Almost done w/ the article.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-58986430408211638482011-11-04T02:37:36.255-10:002011-11-04T02:37:36.255-10:00So employment figures were better than expected, t...So employment figures were better than expected, that should support a rally to start the day.SpikerJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18395405581766207065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-66604892793969604202011-11-04T02:25:14.503-10:002011-11-04T02:25:14.503-10:00Just a shot in the dark, here is my guess for toda...Just a shot in the dark, here is my guess for today: The employment figures come in as expected, it is a Friday after a week of stressing over the Fed and Greece, and we have had a nice 2 day rally still below the recent high, so we trade in a quiet range today with a conservative close into the weekend.SpikerJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18395405581766207065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-89679449881152128562011-11-04T02:04:43.200-10:002011-11-04T02:04:43.200-10:00according to the website, it's from Thomson Re...according to the website, it's from Thomson ReutersTJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-84761784616442910212011-11-04T02:04:35.965-10:002011-11-04T02:04:35.965-10:00Maybe not. I keep going back and forth between ch...Maybe not. I keep going back and forth between charts trying to reconcile. Friggin' rally is a complete mess to count.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-49667447407910300852011-11-04T01:47:08.456-10:002011-11-04T01:47:08.456-10:00Futures still slightly negative, but I think I'...Futures still slightly negative, but I think I'm favoring a new high for wave (ii) yet... almost done w/ the charts.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-50079902971190256252011-11-04T01:41:40.104-10:002011-11-04T01:41:40.104-10:00Gotcha. :)
Any idea where to get a larger data sa...Gotcha. :)<br /><br />Any idea where to get a larger data sample? I'd be willing to take a look at it.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-28799365272834114382011-11-04T01:36:26.069-10:002011-11-04T01:36:26.069-10:00of course. meant for that to be an idea, not a sou...of course. meant for that to be an idea, not a source :)TJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-79729327038477476542011-11-04T00:54:37.483-10:002011-11-04T00:54:37.483-10:00TJ, seems like I would need a bigger sample than g...TJ, seems like I would need a bigger sample than given in the article for it to have much significance, don't you think?PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-30350575348430830732011-11-03T23:52:02.839-10:002011-11-03T23:52:02.839-10:00Pretzel, care to overlay that as well? :) Together...Pretzel, care to overlay that as well? :) Together with the macro leading indicators, your work will become priceless!TJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-1925441277807956862011-11-03T23:50:50.707-10:002011-11-03T23:50:50.707-10:00This is another (non-technical) way to see why we ...This is another (non-technical) way to see why we are due for a big correction.<br />http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-49043265/insider-selling-comes-roaring-back/?tag=mwuserTJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-71083836414773211722011-11-03T22:20:22.176-10:002011-11-03T22:20:22.176-10:00SPX should be right in the reversal zone btw. Hav...SPX should be right in the reversal zone btw. Have had some time to look at charts now... futures basically flat right now, but it will be interesting to see what the morning brings. <br /><br />Back to work...PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-82402815954120311032011-11-03T22:18:01.935-10:002011-11-03T22:18:01.935-10:00Well, just to add to the Washington connection... ...Well, just to add to the Washington connection... during the '08 crash, I was living in Vancouver, WA (across the river from Portland). We moved out to Maui in '09. My wife actually liked WA better (while I think WA is a beautiful state, how she could like it *better* than HI is beyond me...).PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-14748208549274988542011-11-03T22:08:55.106-10:002011-11-03T22:08:55.106-10:00I didn't know you live in Tacoma. I live in S...I didn't know you live in Tacoma. I live in Seattle myself. And I am the proprietor of two very busy Queen Anne neighborhood restaurants. <br /><br />Toulouse in particular is a true dining destination. And one of the five most patronized establishments in the city. www.toulousepetit.com <br /><br />This is not a self plug / promotion. We'd be honored to have you and your wife (and children, if they happen to be along) in for dinner or brunch sometime.brianhuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13919393156588909718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-16845183794834493792011-11-03T20:34:05.154-10:002011-11-03T20:34:05.154-10:00Thanks for the insight! As I'm sure you're...Thanks for the insight! As I'm sure you're aware trying to sort through the various EW count interpretations out there is a bit bewildering when you're new to it. I will pick up a copy of the Hurst book to read in my "spare" time (FT job, 2 kids, house, hmmmm).<br />While my market hours here in Tacoma are nicer than yours in Maui I need to go to bed. I look forward to your next article!Curtacomahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09824793804650489113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-18257945815194264012011-11-03T20:31:58.140-10:002011-11-03T20:31:58.140-10:00Also: I think the wave he's labeled as Cycle ...Also: I think the wave he's labeled as Cycle V (the current move off March '09) counts better as a corrective wave.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-4041038038901146702011-11-03T20:25:18.286-10:002011-11-03T20:25:18.286-10:00Mav,
Thanks. Been spending time w/ my kids toda...Mav, <br /><br />Thanks. Been spending time w/ my kids today.<br /><br />Curt,<br /><br />The book listed in my recommended reading section to the right "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" by J.M. Hurst is generally considered as a good place to start.<br /><br />Also, re: the count you linked to. It's not impossible... I just think the wave he's labeled as Cycle Wave [B] counts better as a 5 than a 3. His view is actually an order of magnitude more bearish than mine... while he'd have us make a nominal new high for this move, he has that high marked as the top for Supercycle III. This is more bearish because he's saying that this decade has been part of Cycle Wave IV, as opposed to part of Supercycle Wave IV... and Supercycle IV would be worse than Cycle IV. <br /><br />Like I said, though, it's not impossible. Elliott Wave is as much an art as a science, which is why Elliotticians rarely agree.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-65982470454424144572011-11-03T20:11:37.686-10:002011-11-03T20:11:37.686-10:00And a question for CP - how did you learn about Hu...And a question for CP - how did you learn about Hurst cycles? Can you recommend any websites or blogs where I could learn more? thanks! CCurtacomahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09824793804650489113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-48496655798962564262011-11-03T20:10:33.164-10:002011-11-03T20:10:33.164-10:00Pretzel,
When yo have a minute would love to know ...Pretzel,<br />When yo have a minute would love to know what you think of this chart. <br />http://screencast.com/t/ZAKXWH8WYY<br />Just learning about EW myself and very confused, don't know what to think about the poster's view (it's not Daneric's chart, came from a poster).<br /><br />And thanks for the education!Curtacomahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09824793804650489113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-72166252428088868922011-11-03T19:08:42.996-10:002011-11-03T19:08:42.996-10:00seems like pretzel is out for the count today. lol...seems like pretzel is out for the count today. lol. Its okay, that guy needs a break once in awhilemavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-83316903422136510982011-11-03T16:54:30.542-10:002011-11-03T16:54:30.542-10:00Well put Brian - it's a feeling I have as well...Well put Brian - it's a feeling I have as well and your verbal chart seems to play out very well with P's bull scenario. When my Broker buddy calls to jab me about having a stupid bearish outlook, that's when I will know the time is at hand to go all in. Or when the traffic on P's blog slows to a crawl, that could also be a good sign - heck, a leading indicator for that matter. Maybe P can chart the # comments / site visits to the S&P - inverse relationship!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-2607663387592737442011-11-03T16:36:22.983-10:002011-11-03T16:36:22.983-10:00Guess my post was getting too lomg- i was frozen o...Guess my post was getting too lomg- i was frozen out fromlast post. Was trying to say that the Germans allow the ECB to become a Lender of Last resort... So plenty of crazy headlines that can cause some spikes... Should know soon enough. Hopefully before Pretzel starts drooling on his keyboard againPOTUSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-78579810186943666452011-11-03T16:33:33.221-10:002011-11-03T16:33:33.221-10:00Looks like H&S and rising wedges all over the ...Looks like H&S and rising wedges all over the place tonight with decling trendlines having been kissed on a bunch of indices as well. If we don't revisit 1225 tomorrow by 11:30 then i would say the bull count has overwhelmed all of the bears. I think the charts are clearly saying one thing however, i think there are some pretty good EW'ers working for PPT that know when to step on the gas, a la last night and again this morning. Hard to fight Benny and Timmy sometimes. As far as good news that could take us to the penthouse suite quickly:<br /><br />IMF agrees to invest 300 billion into EFSF Spiv structure<br />China agrees to invest 300 billion into EFSF Spiv structure<br />Jobs number prints at 200,000 tomorrow and inflation drops below 9%<br />g20 agree to worldwide liquidity program with US Fed offering unlimited 2 year swap lines to all Central Banks<br />Germans agree to allowPOTUSnoreply@blogger.com