tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post279972983650738123..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: Bounce or DiePretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger144125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-24505910449887648672011-11-30T22:42:08.738-10:002011-11-30T22:42:08.738-10:00You know, you kinda missed the "prediction wi...You know, you kinda missed the "prediction window" by a few days on this thread. ;)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-71617104109114873822011-11-30T22:29:57.589-10:002011-11-30T22:29:57.589-10:00I'm favouring the bullish countI'm favouring the bullish countJ Diamonnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-8649498514419040102011-11-30T09:17:28.683-10:002011-11-30T09:17:28.683-10:00Michael, you're also on the wrong thread. :) ...Michael, you're also on the wrong thread. :) This is the old one.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-33854323860961209332011-11-30T09:16:05.982-10:002011-11-30T09:16:05.982-10:00NM, missed the KO line at 1267ish. Hard to see on...NM, missed the KO line at 1267ish. Hard to see on a phone.Michael Robertsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-47395029177736112442011-11-30T09:13:56.460-10:002011-11-30T09:13:56.460-10:00PL,
Has the SPX gone high enough to KO the alt bo...PL,<br /><br />Has the SPX gone high enough to KO the alt bounce scenario?Michael Robertsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-21664876083457668742011-11-28T21:08:30.534-10:002011-11-28T21:08:30.534-10:00Hi Narfu187, thanks and welcome!
Yes, as you'...Hi Narfu187, thanks and welcome!<br /><br />Yes, as you'll see in the update I just posted, my inclination is that the rally will end tomorrow.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-50801102364142618952011-11-28T21:06:35.361-10:002011-11-28T21:06:35.361-10:00Or, perhaps confirmation!!!! that's my vote...Or, perhaps confirmation!!!! that's my vote!Expatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-8006299183924358952011-11-28T21:06:33.427-10:002011-11-28T21:06:33.427-10:00Guess you didn't see my comment immediately fo...Guess you didn't see my comment immediately following where I said I was leaning toward the idea of more upside, but still had work to do. ;)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-14318472633859158382011-11-28T21:05:21.835-10:002011-11-28T21:05:21.835-10:00Update's posted, let's continue discussion...Update's posted, let's continue discussions on that thread. :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-77011675085062217542011-11-28T21:02:07.902-10:002011-11-28T21:02:07.902-10:00don't often see 3/4 million contracts on them....don't often see 3/4 million contracts on them.....somebody thinks your waterfall is at the very least after Jan exp.<br />Or maybe they think the dividend makes them immune???? hmmmm<br /><br />Makes your ownership cost...if it gets put to you, slightly higher than the 2007 lows.....more hmmmmmmExpatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-64170298261526575442011-11-28T20:49:48.000-10:002011-11-28T20:49:48.000-10:00Hey I think I got it figured out.Hey I think I got it figured out.Coloradonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-10844772764920128932011-11-28T20:48:40.261-10:002011-11-28T20:48:40.261-10:00I'll post it tomorrow and throw it out to the ...I'll post it tomorrow and throw it out to the crowd, but did you see the call (sell or buy...hmmmm) activity in mic..i..dees? whoa, that's a chunk o change!Expatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-214551763704222382011-11-28T20:32:13.357-10:002011-11-28T20:32:13.357-10:00Still think the rally ended today? Been away for ...Still think the rally ended today? Been away for a couple of hours and just saw the futures. Up since you made your comment. I'm still trying to figure out why....on gods green earth....we rallied today. Expatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-31385330947902671352011-11-28T19:48:13.053-10:002011-11-28T19:48:13.053-10:00I absolutely love your work Jason, keep it up!
If...I absolutely love your work Jason, keep it up!<br /><br />If you get a chance to read this I'd like to know what your take is on this theory. Consider the chart you listed here: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HEOhKYH0Kpg/TtLj-MDirdI/AAAAAAAAAo0/O931PisW9zs/s1600/spx+11-26+x+fifth.png<br /><br />Intra-day, the S&P 500 almost perfectly hit at your first projected peak. If you allow for the move to the 1184 low to correspond (loosely) with your following projected regional low, we may already be halfway up the second peak. Perhaps the projection was mostly spot on, but the time-frame is more condensed than what you have here? This scenario would fit in well with the likely disappointing Italian bond auction tomorrow, so it's something to think about.Narfu187noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-23830752000744639872011-11-28T19:16:15.770-10:002011-11-28T19:16:15.770-10:00Interesting, as an amateur, I have been trying to ...Interesting, as an amateur, I have been trying to count the waves on the Forex Aud and Euro, I was fine until about two hours ago then I got hopelessly lost. On the Aud, I was considering the move upward from 9863 and in the Euro from 1.3285 as a series of consecutive (or nested) 3 wave consolidation but I think that it is extending too far. Furthermore, I am not sure how an alternative count would look like. I am excited to see your post.Coloradonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-47283734149124327502011-11-28T18:24:32.350-10:002011-11-28T18:24:32.350-10:00But I am leaning toward the idea of more upside. ...But I am leaning toward the idea of more upside. Still a lot more chart work to do...PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-54730093456137211782011-11-28T18:21:02.272-10:002011-11-28T18:21:02.272-10:00Hmm. By counts on some markets, the rally may hav...Hmm. By counts on some markets, the rally may have ended today. PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-46578909162862970402011-11-28T17:57:01.201-10:002011-11-28T17:57:01.201-10:00No change in either -- I don't think this SPX ...No change in either -- I don't think this SPX rally will last long. <br /><br />Call the SPX upside target under the (extended fifth wave count) 1209-1225. I expect a reversal from there and new lows afterwards. More detail in the update later.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-79936561163456643292011-11-28T17:36:28.933-10:002011-11-28T17:36:28.933-10:00PL,
Still thinking a drop to 1171 and then a boun...PL,<br /><br />Still thinking a drop to 1171 and then a bounce to the 1220 area and down from there? I understand MR's comments below as its huge from a trading perspective....as I know you are well aware....from a purely hypothetical perspective, of course!<br /><br />On a different note, but same song, has you mindset changed on the US dollar?<br /><br />Hope you enjoyed your T-day!Expatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-92151363696383981712011-11-28T16:25:06.717-10:002011-11-28T16:25:06.717-10:00Michael, I generally use them as "relative&qu...Michael, I generally use them as "relative" terms in relation to the context. Speaking very generally, ST would be a couple days to a couple weeks; MT would be a few weeks to a few months; LT would be 6 months or longer.<br /> PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-66317639511475454622011-11-28T16:16:52.525-10:002011-11-28T16:16:52.525-10:00Pretzel,
What time windows do you use when referr...Pretzel,<br /><br />What time windows do you use when referring to short term, medium term, and long term time frames?Michael Robertsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-1647315904139891492011-11-28T15:45:02.831-10:002011-11-28T15:45:02.831-10:00william-
Based on the wave structure, I don't...william-<br /><br />Based on the wave structure, I don't expect this rally to last long. It should be a fast and furious counter-trend rally that leads quickly to new lows. Might bounce back and forth a little, but it shouldn't be on par w/ the rallies in A20's chart.<br /><br />HT-<br /><br />The "Santa Rally :o" on that one chart was a joke. I'm not expecting a Santa rally -- I'm expecting a Santa Dead-cat bounce from much lower levels.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-85513560292157670672011-11-28T14:28:52.017-10:002011-11-28T14:28:52.017-10:00I'll gladly get LONG when the ECB and/or FED f...I'll gladly get LONG when the ECB and/or FED finally does do something - until then its short the rallies ;)vulture711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-41496072456272811862011-11-28T14:22:48.328-10:002011-11-28T14:22:48.328-10:00vulture, I agree. Checking the daily-TRIX and you ...vulture, I agree. Checking the daily-TRIX and you can see it is still in sell mode. I like TRIX as it filters out "market noise" much better than many other oscillators such as MACD, SSTO etc. It seems to me that we have some ways to go (down). It is still in sell mode (under signal-line), and it approaches 0 (from above), not bottoming out at all/crossing over from below (that be a buy signal).soulsurferusanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-18981103869359831212011-11-28T14:15:35.475-10:002011-11-28T14:15:35.475-10:00Not quite sure how anyone is taking 1 single up da...Not quite sure how anyone is taking 1 single up day after 7 down days and turning that into a rally ? This is the same action in reverse the market did on the way up - ratchet up, have a pause day or maybe a single down day to shake the trees then continue. This was low volume junk at some arbitrary stopping point after we broke through anything that could be called support. Again, on this board, when people start worrying and talking about rallies, it's usually prime time to short. The VIX went no-where, there isn't any fear, no real bearish sentiment, no, um, anything to launch a rally from. vulture711noreply@blogger.com