tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post2828621652694236739..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: Topping Again?PretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger283125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-69675446454433630622011-12-05T05:19:48.380-10:002011-12-05T05:19:48.380-10:00Ah, more selling to hopefuls and suckers above 1,2...Ah, more selling to hopefuls and suckers above 1,260. <br /><br />Why do I get the feeling that Street pros aren't terribly comfortable with taking things much past 1,265? It's hard to imagine them having a lot of confidence that things can be held up here for long. brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-16933935979538206862011-12-04T16:19:37.703-10:002011-12-04T16:19:37.703-10:00Update's posted. Let's continue discussio...Update's posted. Let's continue discussion on that thread.<br /><br />Gotta run pick up one of my kids from the other side of the island... be back in a couple hours. :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-62881115553587583402011-12-04T15:06:24.015-10:002011-12-04T15:06:24.015-10:00Genius and madman are two of a kind :-)Genius and madman are two of a kind :-)Franknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-21649493012224851072011-12-04T14:52:11.908-10:002011-12-04T14:52:11.908-10:00i hope youre a genius sir!i hope youre a genius sir!mavrichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-64402201592422244442011-12-04T14:43:12.829-10:002011-12-04T14:43:12.829-10:00Lol - seems as likely as anything else these days....Lol - seems as likely as anything else these days.B.O.B.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-84181761378044022022011-12-04T14:40:22.619-10:002011-12-04T14:40:22.619-10:00All right, I can't wait to see the update.All right, I can't wait to see the update.Raynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-76455365315262488242011-12-04T14:32:40.454-10:002011-12-04T14:32:40.454-10:00Ray, you're going to appreciate the updated SP...Ray, you're going to appreciate the updated SPX chart I think. I haven't seen anything similar anywhere. Now if I can just get the article finished (or started, for that matter, lol). Thank goodness it's a weekend!PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-84808470905967820032011-12-04T14:21:36.311-10:002011-12-04T14:21:36.311-10:00I guess so, so is it high or low for VIX? :)
Ital...I guess so, so is it high or low for VIX? :)<br /><br />Italy's government approves austerity plan<br /><br />http://www.marketwatch.com/story/italys-government-approves-austerity-plan-2011-12-04?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigchartsRaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-91165504809076463592011-12-04T14:21:29.346-10:002011-12-04T14:21:29.346-10:00The updated SPX chart is one of those "either...The updated SPX chart is one of those "either I'm a genius or a madman" charts. :D<br /><br />Still have to write the article!PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-68737080455952021582011-12-04T13:51:58.560-10:002011-12-04T13:51:58.560-10:00Pretty sure it has something to do with Paris Hilt...Pretty sure it has something to do with Paris Hilton.<br /><br />This is one of those weekends I've spent hours and hours and hours on charts, and I still feel like I need another 3 days. :(<br /><br />Some things are simply unknowable, I suppose.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-78262370572699072652011-12-04T13:20:56.581-10:002011-12-04T13:20:56.581-10:00Interesting. Thanks for the reply, especially bur...Interesting. Thanks for the reply, especially buried so far down the comments.SpikerJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-17654584288725266852011-12-04T13:14:08.356-10:002011-12-04T13:14:08.356-10:00Stupid futures opened up 9.5 points to 1253. Any...Stupid futures opened up 9.5 points to 1253. Anyone care to speculate as to the reason?B.O.B.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-87227318927532944522011-12-04T10:13:10.422-10:002011-12-04T10:13:10.422-10:00Thanks for the reply!Thanks for the reply!B.O.B.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-79753247303240880412011-12-04T05:36:46.387-10:002011-12-04T05:36:46.387-10:00Why do I get this feeling you're finding simil...Why do I get this feeling you're finding similarities to 9/18-9/19 of 2008...I'm probably off but the recent price action sure looks similar...robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-25752854955351864672011-12-04T05:22:06.125-10:002011-12-04T05:22:06.125-10:00Speedos are explainable just don't start carry...Speedos are explainable just don't start carrying a "man-purse"Blahnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-20781848058115801462011-12-04T04:35:05.170-10:002011-12-04T04:35:05.170-10:00Great, I am looking forward to seeing your next po...Great, I am looking forward to seeing your next post.Raynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-24513741993088518902011-12-04T02:36:46.963-10:002011-12-04T02:36:46.963-10:00Oh wow. I just spotted some crazy similarities in...Oh wow. I just spotted some crazy similarities in the SPX charts. Bears might have a real chance here to knock this thing out of the park. Gotta do a bunch more work to get it ready to get it published. This is where the blog adds a bunch of work to my normal work, lol. I can just "see" what I'm talking about here -- but you guys can't, so I have to connect the dots with all the charts. Hopefully I can get it done sometime before the futures crash so you'll see how brilliant it is before anything happens. :D <br /><br />Nah, I don't know that they'll crash immediately or anything. But the similarities I'm finding sure are interesting...PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-20639199203833463952011-12-04T02:13:56.226-10:002011-12-04T02:13:56.226-10:00Nice post, PL. Thanks for that. Consumer fashion...Nice post, PL. Thanks for that. Consumer fashion has aspects of relevance. Eddie Izzard used to do skits on the "curve" or "circle of fashion", where there's a tiny step between "cool-as-f*" and "looking-like-a-twat":-<br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTnCtcvr384<br /><br />:)RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-58027005522652250212011-12-04T01:33:53.097-10:002011-12-04T01:33:53.097-10:00Excellent advice! :)
Your emotional analysis rel...Excellent advice! :)<br /><br />Your emotional analysis relates to what I said some time ago about the "logical" tendency of the human mind to project the future a linear fashion. I think we've been fooled into believing this to be true of most things due to the laws of the physical world (Newtonian laws, anyway -- quantum physics is different). In the observable world, if an object is sitting still, we assume it will continue to do so; if an object is racing forward, we assume it will continue going forward at a similar rate of speed. We don't have many examples in the physical world of an object racing one direction at 70 mph, then reversing on a dime and heading the exact opposite direction at 80 mph. So we learn to project the future in a linear way through experience.<br /><br />If the market goes up 100 points in 4 days, the tendency is for people to assume that 8 days down the road, it will be up 200 points. The mistake of course, is that markets don't move in a linear fashion. Hence the tendency for new traders to jump in short when they should be long, or vice versa.<br /><br />At the time I discussed this previously, I suggested that the changing of the seasons would be a more accurate model for the markets, although that's not a perfect analogy either -- because the markets can go from a sweltering summer day to a cold winter night in a heartbeat.<br /><br />But the difficulty in finding an analogy ties in with the difficulty most people have in trading -- there really isn't much in our normal experience *other* than trading that serves as a good learning arena. We don't have much prior experience to draw from which serves as a good proxy to trading in our "usual" existence on this planet. <br /><br />The instincts and logic that serve us well as physical beings are the exact tendencies that destroy us as traders. <br /><br />Which, ultimately, is the same thing you were saying -- just a different slant on it. :) PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-44386979821980251072011-12-04T01:03:44.738-10:002011-12-04T01:03:44.738-10:00If I might add something?
Learn to monitor your o...If I might add something?<br /><br />Learn to monitor your own emotional response to what's happening in the market, and use that as a guide (ie. in a contrarian manner) as to how to act. When applied to markets, the fight/flight and fear/greed emotions (essentially: fear vs. euphoria) would often have us doing precisely the wrong thing at the wrong time. <br /><br />For example, if I'm fortunate to have been on the right side of a strong move, and I find myself excitedly performing mental calculations of the following ilk: "I've made this much so far, if it moves another N points, then I'll make *another* wodge, so maybe I should load up even more", that's usually a sign I should be doing exactly the opposite. Likewise, in the opposite situation, if markets have moved strongly against me and my own fear levels are high. At these points, much more often than not it pays to do the opposite of what my emotions are screaming at me to do. <br /><br />I'm just a punter in the market, exposed to the same yo-yo pull on the emotions as everyone else. So, monitoring my own emotions can be an accurate barometer of how everyone else is feeling. <br /><br />The difficult part is when it comes to translating that intention into action at those key moments. Because in the heat of that market action at those fearful/euphoric points, your brain is getting flooded with chemicals, enabling it to construct convincing "logical" arguments to support your instinctive emotional response, virtually compelling you to act in a way that goes against your best laid plans. <br /><br />What makes it doubly difficult is that doing the wrong (emotionally-driven, instinctive) thing will often provide an immediate short term emotional reward. For example, during the tech bubble, those people who finally caved in and started buying pets.com etc during early 2000 were initially rewarded b y feeling part of the consensus crowd, reinforced by seeing monetary reward at the stocks edged up further. Similarly with someone who finally sells (or goes short) after dramatic price decles ahave already occurred. Initially there is emotional relief at having joined the crowd in their consensus viewpoint. Unfortunately, that emotional reward is usually very short-lived.<br /><br />Monitoring your own emotions, being aware of you feel in the face of different market developments, and trying to stand aside from your own emotions (very hard to do!), and act independent of them, should prove extremely helpful.<br /><br />HTH.RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-6993510439270794132011-12-04T00:58:31.617-10:002011-12-04T00:58:31.617-10:00I've now reached the point this weekend where ...I've now reached the point this weekend where if I spend any more time staring at Euro charts, I'm going to feel compelled to start wearing a Speedo. <br /><br />I've spent literally the whole weekend on the damn Euro, 'cause I feel it's key to unlocking the count on SPX. But I'm really starting to hate Euro charts...PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-42541975863363611212011-12-04T00:13:58.606-10:002011-12-04T00:13:58.606-10:00i especially liked the "give a shit factor&qu...i especially liked the "give a shit factor" is a little higher for the swiss bank analogy. made my laughmavrichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-80870081630656700782011-12-03T20:37:08.547-10:002011-12-03T20:37:08.547-10:00much appreciated. I wish I had done all of these t...much appreciated. I wish I had done all of these things during my beginner's luck phase when I was up 40% on my account before going back to neutral. Good advice for suremavrichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-89088041226012716342011-12-03T20:32:49.538-10:002011-12-03T20:32:49.538-10:00Frank, I am listening to your bud! Thanks for shar...Frank, I am listening to your bud! Thanks for sharing your thoughts. R911Rocketeer911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-50693530426889500462011-12-03T20:30:20.574-10:002011-12-03T20:30:20.574-10:00"Fading Frank" would be a good name for ..."Fading Frank" would be a good name for a band. Or a noir film.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.com