tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post3052644282998631658..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: Finally the Breakdown -- What Next?PretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger292125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-73812551833253069782011-12-12T01:05:47.192-10:002011-12-12T01:05:47.192-10:00Preferred count basically agrees w/ you Brian and ...Preferred count basically agrees w/ you Brian and Ray. ;)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-86709423597151974732011-12-12T01:05:15.683-10:002011-12-12T01:05:15.683-10:00Okay, update's posted, let's move discussi...Okay, update's posted, let's move discussion over to that thread. :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-67801447117445452882011-12-12T00:43:12.202-10:002011-12-12T00:43:12.202-10:00Hope u feel right by atleast 5% ! ;) [no offence t...Hope u feel right by atleast 5% ! ;) [no offence to longs or calls-:( ]vinod vnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-54846145336457604972011-12-12T00:43:03.242-10:002011-12-12T00:43:03.242-10:00I have the same feeling. The italy bond yield is ...I have the same feeling. The italy bond yield is increasing too. I think the third wave down is starting from 1267.06 of SPX and we may not have santa rally but santa waterfall.Raynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-79298221231606186012011-12-12T00:27:36.525-10:002011-12-12T00:27:36.525-10:00Ok. So it's 2 am Seattle time. And I just che...Ok. So it's 2 am Seattle time. And I just checked out the futes down 98 Dow points and Europe is tanking too. I think this is larger than the Euro summit not delivering on expectations. This is the first time I've *felt* this way since the August waterfall. I KNOW this feeling. Why do I feel it now? <br /><br />And this has the feeling of something far more vicious and forceful.brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-65137206855095503092011-12-11T18:22:37.669-10:002011-12-11T18:22:37.669-10:00We are the retail investors. The market literally ...We are the retail investors. The market literally hates us.Redrumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-9115849226197039152011-12-11T17:14:58.483-10:002011-12-11T17:14:58.483-10:00China is down again today while the rest of Asia f...China is down again today while the rest of Asia follows our rally. It made a fresh 52 week low again, just under the critical 2300 level. Also USD up a little so was expecting the futures to drop but no luck yet. Looking forward to the update. Holding ES short and would love to hit 1230 before getting stopped out again.B.O.B.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-2651450037938749382011-12-11T17:09:41.170-10:002011-12-11T17:09:41.170-10:00Fantastic article on the eventual end game and out...Fantastic article on the eventual end game and outcome for Europe. And the 'irony' of their current meetings and 'solutions': it only guarantees that it all gets worse and crashes harder:<br /><br />http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/11/europe_digs_still_deeper_112364.htmlbrianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-40148942070978739772011-12-11T16:51:02.634-10:002011-12-11T16:51:02.634-10:00Also, as a little LOL -- my working title for the ...Also, as a little LOL -- my working title for the update is <br /><br />"SPX and NDX Update: The Market Hates You." <br /><br />I'm sure I'll change that before it's posted. :DPretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-60765942320193244892011-12-11T16:44:43.241-10:002011-12-11T16:44:43.241-10:00I'm not going to get this update posted for a ...I'm not going to get this update posted for a while yet. Doing research on US Trashuries right now (with the help of Lee at The Wall Street Examiner).<br /><br />For the record, even though futures are flat right now, I think we'll break the recent lows before we break the recent highs. I have a few personal things to take care of, so I'll have to come back andfinish the update, but it will definitely be posted before the open.<br /><br />Anyway, that's my call -- prices break 1231 before they break the recent highs, even if the bullish count is in play. The update will outline my reasoning. :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-56298798138251525482011-12-11T15:39:42.951-10:002011-12-11T15:39:42.951-10:00I agree with your recession logic, but equity mark...I agree with your recession logic, but equity markets have their heads in you konw what, and won't reaact to recession expectaion, but rather to resessionary coincident data which may not be forthcoming until some time in 1Q12. In the meantime, US $ goes down as the FED keeps printing in absence of EU printing , which could possibly fuel the US equity markets ...I know the equity markets are supposed to be forwad looking, but I haven't seen much forward looking action over the last seceral years, everything is geared to suck the fools in with FED support and when it all hits, well "nobody could predict it"Frednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-32655868792174436152011-12-11T15:27:07.333-10:002011-12-11T15:27:07.333-10:00It is possible. Honestly, over the very short ter...It is possible. Honestly, over the very short term, there are so many possibitilies it's ridiculous. The count I thought I unlocked the other night failed to confirm across markets.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-15241852217173807842011-12-11T15:20:57.945-10:002011-12-11T15:20:57.945-10:00Oh, well. It did post the chart but twice.Oh, well. It did post the chart but twice.Raynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-69737976289346730602011-12-11T15:19:14.798-10:002011-12-11T15:19:14.798-10:00 PL,
I am sorry I am unable to post a chart, but ... PL,<br /><br />I am sorry I am unable to post a chart, but I'll use the first chart (SPX) in your last post - Just Fax, Ma'am. Do you think the end of wave red (2) can be at 12/7 (1267.06)? If it is a possible count, what is its probability? Thanks.Raynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-59170538331390491082011-12-11T14:32:11.560-10:002011-12-11T14:32:11.560-10:00lol, it will show up at the top of the home page a...lol, it will show up at the top of the home page and I'll post it on this thread when it's up. Just spent about an hour annotating *one* chart, so it's getting there.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-69849695233512602662011-12-11T14:29:19.503-10:002011-12-11T14:29:19.503-10:00PL, am I correct assuming no update has been post...PL, am I correct assuming no update has been posted...just checking.Frednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-51224392119836544122011-12-11T14:20:45.481-10:002011-12-11T14:20:45.481-10:00Broncos win again!Broncos win again!Blahnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-69565567105800704182011-12-11T13:57:35.666-10:002011-12-11T13:57:35.666-10:00you nailed it pretzel.
I worked for borders at the...you nailed it pretzel.<br />I worked for borders at the corporate office (before the bankruptcy)<br />our final holiday season, we did massive black friday weekend promos...we proceeded to have our worst ever holiday sales becuase we "pulled" all demand forward. <br /><br />Just like the home buyer tax credit pulled demand forward and now we are in the middle of a housing double dip.RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-91035095924624599602011-12-11T13:48:45.823-10:002011-12-11T13:48:45.823-10:00In my opinion, the market price action comes first...In my opinion, the market price action comes first and fundamentals come next, which usually justify the market move. So as long as market price action is bullish next week, I will be assuming this scenario. Of course, market can decide to do exact opposite of what I am thinking.<br />In which case, we should see bearish price action next week and I will be willing to either short the market or wait it out. But as of today, based on the overall market technical/sentimental/vixconditions it looks like bullish action ahead and until we are told otherwise by price action, hang on to this opinion.Shyamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-56127988469619659412011-12-11T13:46:17.201-10:002011-12-11T13:46:17.201-10:00Did anyone pay attention to the Black Friday sales...Did anyone pay attention to the Black Friday sales this year? Many stores opened at midnight on Thanksgiving night and blew out inventory for zero profit. Pretty sure all they did was "pull" all the sales numbers forward, in essense robbing Peter to pay Paul -- so the numbers for December won't be as good as expected.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-89417133954492585092011-12-11T13:43:13.840-10:002011-12-11T13:43:13.840-10:00My money's on the second option...My money's on the second option...PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-14246585996242667752011-12-11T13:39:13.614-10:002011-12-11T13:39:13.614-10:00Actually, it was that comment combined with a comm...Actually, it was that comment combined with a comment you made sometime ago about "showing people what they really are" or some such thing.<br /><br />1. Lesson 1, you are doomed to a miserable existance with this attitude. <br />2. Lesson 2: <br />subcategory 1: I addressed you in another post, explaining that my leaning toward the bull leg had nothing to do with the news. <br />subcategory 2: This is actually smart, as I do the same thing, though your approach could use more than a bit of refinement.<br />subcategory 3: You bring on the insults with your cartoonish pompousity. You INVITE people to insult you. You make it almost impossible not to insult you. <br /><br />Bottom line, you bring on your own misery. ;)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-24613013939377341792011-12-11T13:26:11.461-10:002011-12-11T13:26:11.461-10:00If the market can stay under the 200dma until Janu...If the market can stay under the 200dma until January 1st...I think this thing collapses. IMO, the only thing keeping a collapse at bay is the threat of QE3 and the santa rally. Bernanke won't spend that bullet unless we DO get a collapse and the santa rally threat is gone on 1/1/12. Euro solutions are out the window at this point. This was the last chance for them IMO and they blew it. No money printing = euro recession.RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-52164371755623503842011-12-11T13:22:15.326-10:002011-12-11T13:22:15.326-10:00I'm sorry, but all of the economic data is sho...I'm sorry, but all of the economic data is showing contraction other than US consumer spending. That simply won't last and it simply won't drive world growth any longer. Last time we were above 1300, the world was in mega bull mode. With all of these risks and depreciating econ data do we really deserve to be above 1300? For crying out loud, 2 weeks ago european credit FROZE and it took an unprecedented Central Bank effort just to unfreeze credit...how can people think that problem goes away in 2 weeks? A rally above 1300 here just seems completely irrational, but the market is known for irrational movement so maybe a big rally is in order with that logic. Even if we don't get a mega crash, We have atleast got to test 1000 on the S&P.RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-89256417080504930912011-12-11T13:11:00.551-10:002011-12-11T13:11:00.551-10:00Only actually slept for about 8 1/2 hours -- which...Only actually slept for about 8 1/2 hours -- which is like "normal" I think. Was hoping to sleep for about 12! And I did bring back something from the Akashic Records: it was revealed unto me that Anon20 resides in Uraguay, in the greater Montevideo area. ;)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.com