tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post3468560654308664954..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX and NDX Updates: Last Call for Bears!PretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger163125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-54172650315350636282011-10-28T02:19:57.547-10:002011-10-28T02:19:57.547-10:00Ah... update finally done. Can relax for 26 secon...Ah... update finally done. Can relax for 26 seconds.<br /><br />Jammer-<br /><br />For some reason, your comment went into the spam box.<br /><br />To answer your question, the only way the government can interfere in the market is by generating liquidity, either by printing money, or lowering interest rates. Interest rates are about as low as they can go. And I don't think they'll print right now. QE/QE2 did nothing for the real economy, except send commodity prices skyrocketing.<br /><br />High oil prices are very detrimental to the economy and to consumers.<br /><br />Personally, I think the Fed has shot all its bullets. That's another reason why I think the crash is inevitable.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-36350798105555075982011-10-28T01:29:08.610-10:002011-10-28T01:29:08.610-10:00Am I crazy or can someone explain this to me? How...Am I crazy or can someone explain this to me? How can the S&P futures be negative (-4.5) this AM and the SPY is trading up .75? I'm confused and can't ever recall seeing such a vast divergenceblackjaknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-54281865518742955282011-10-28T01:20:17.294-10:002011-10-28T01:20:17.294-10:00RockTop - I like your last take. Friday will see ...RockTop - I like your last take. Friday will see some profits taken and I can see an upward move to the Fed meeting where Bernake says there has been a slight improvement of conditions and that thwarts QE3 talk for now. With that there really isn't much left to propel upward. The charts listed in the article look fine for shape, just some of the top numbers were a little light, but the form looks goodGordonGekkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04663077811792784833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-52705154769453485102011-10-27T23:52:55.157-10:002011-10-27T23:52:55.157-10:00Ah, no, sorry. Got ahead of myself... maybe not q...Ah, no, sorry. Got ahead of myself... maybe not quite as exciting as I thought initially. I think I need to take a quick break and eat something, lol. You guys are slave-drivers! ;)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-24469053646749210672011-10-27T23:01:25.849-10:002011-10-27T23:01:25.849-10:00Oh... you guys are going to love me after tonight&...Oh... you guys are going to love me after tonight's update. :) <br /><br />It all just came together. Almost everybody has it all wrong, except maybe for CTP. ;)<br /><br />I've figured it out... I THINK... I'm so friggin' excited, I'm probably posting this before I should; I haven't yet checked all my numbers twice and made a list to find out who's naughty and nice, and all that crap. <br /><br />So let me take all that away... preliminary indications are for a holy crap eureka moment. <br /><br />BACK TO WORKPretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-72244842534915326522011-10-27T21:26:34.591-10:002011-10-27T21:26:34.591-10:00For fwiw, I went long around two weeks too early i...For fwiw, I went long around two weeks too early in March '09 and kept adding to my positions. In the end I got bumped out, forced to cover on the last massive down day (opposite of what we saw yesterday) and mostly at prices lower than the lowest closing prices.<br /><br />This time round I'm not prepared to make the same mistake, so I won't cover even if I were to lose my entire (current) playing capital in the process. Even though I'm 100% short, I play with only around 5% of my "venture" capital, so I will ultimately survive in order to come back and fight another day. <br /><br />So if I blow it this time I'll simply sit back, wait for the market to settle and then start afresh.<br /><br />They say Bears make money, Bulls make money, but Pigs get slaughtered. In March '09 I ended as a slaughtered Pig, hopefully I can ride this one out as a living Bear.<br /><br />By next week we will know!<br /><br />Jacojacostrausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02542311353896984645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74455952612634138662011-10-27T18:55:28.290-10:002011-10-27T18:55:28.290-10:00CTP - don't scare me like that and call a top ...CTP - don't scare me like that and call a top already, it flys in the face of my game plan ;)<br /><br />Seriously though, do you have a count that would make thursday's 1292 a top? I'm still favoring a 4 down first where I plan to get long. Pretzel's range of 1267-1270 sounds perfect. <br /><br />I suppose if we break the wave 1 monday high of 1256 I'd be on board with your top call here. Can't wait to see Pretzel's NDX game changer, sounds exciting.RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-84932259856741658732011-10-27T17:36:55.743-10:002011-10-27T17:36:55.743-10:00RAL,
Thanks. :)
Haven't gotten there yet o...RAL,<br /><br />Thanks. :) <br /><br />Haven't gotten there yet on ST targets. I'm still working on the larger wave forms and structure. Just a quick glance at the 10 minute chart and I would say 1267-1270 SPX is probably a fair target.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-61909256172216534692011-10-27T17:21:32.854-10:002011-10-27T17:21:32.854-10:00Pretzel, thank you so much for all the hard work a...Pretzel, thank you so much for all the hard work and analysis you put into this blog. I think it's very high quality, and you always make a strong case for your projections. And when your wrong, and your count is off, you acknowledge it and explain your rationale. In the past I've subscribed to other newsletters) and always felt they didn't provide nearly the detail they should for the money (I'm not going to say any names, but one starts with a P and ends in a R, and the other guy seems to obsess about some river trend?). Rarely, if ever, did they break down wave counts on an hourly chart, let alone a 10 or 1 minute chart. Nor did they ever incorporate other technical analysis. Anyway, thank you again; this is some really good stuff. <br /><br />What is your target for wave 4 tomorrow on the SPX, and RUT if you happen to have it?RALhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974238091439104695noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-85946488892008761602011-10-27T17:15:42.741-10:002011-10-27T17:15:42.741-10:00Speaking of the NDX...
Been re-drawing all charts...Speaking of the NDX...<br /><br />Been re-drawing all charts, and discovered a potential game changer in the NDX. It's potential good news for bears actually. It will be posted in tonight/tomorrow's update.<br /><br />Good stuff, btw, CTP. Thanks for your contributions here. :)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-6084705551050148192011-10-27T17:04:59.661-10:002011-10-27T17:04:59.661-10:00Watch the $SSEC it tested it's falling 50 day ...Watch the $SSEC it tested it's falling 50 day SMA at the open and was rejected. If $SSEC contines to fade here that would be another sign that today was THE top.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-87789013622448023072011-10-27T17:03:11.734-10:002011-10-27T17:03:11.734-10:00big downside reversal in Copper too... looks like ...big downside reversal in Copper too... looks like air may be leaking out of the balloon tonight.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-25677113119364024222011-10-27T17:01:35.850-10:002011-10-27T17:01:35.850-10:00persistent drip lower in the futures tonight.persistent drip lower in the futures tonight.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-50762533683921742642011-10-27T16:59:45.839-10:002011-10-27T16:59:45.839-10:00To start with, I really appreciate all of the hard...To start with, I really appreciate all of the hard work you have been doing. It's very informative and I've already learned alot by reading the analysis and comments.<br /><br />I've been keeping up with the information that all of you have provided for the last six or so weeks and have tried using it on occasion to adjust my strategy. But I have had a hard time attempting to reconcile EW analysis with my macro view in this environment.<br /><br />In another less chaotic period it seems that the analysis would provide very good entry and exit points, but this period feels and acts different to me. I feel that this market will continue to go higher because governments are forcing it to and the emotions of traders have less of an impact on the swings in between. Algorithms layered on top provide the volatility that we've experienced but those gyrations will trend the way the sovereign entities want it to.<br /><br />That being said can EW analysis or TA in general be predictive in this environment or is this really a buy and hold market until the FED, ECB, Chinese and the rest of the gang feel that things have stabilized and decide to stop interfering with it?<br /><br />Sorry for the long comment, but I haven't contributed to the discussion in the past and didn't want to piecemeal it.Jammernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-41517909428119279292011-10-27T16:47:22.383-10:002011-10-27T16:47:22.383-10:00NDX put in a high volume spinning top today. That ...NDX put in a high volume spinning top today. That is a bearish topping stick and would be confirmed by taking out the low of the stick tomorrow.<br /><br />"Candlesticks with a long upper shadow, long lower shadow and small real body are called spinning tops. One long shadow represents a reversal of sorts; spinning tops represent indecision. The small real body (whether hollow or filled) shows little movement from open to close, and the shadows indicate that both bulls and bears were active during the session. Even though the session opened and closed with little change, prices moved significantly higher and lower in the meantime. Neither buyers nor sellers could gain the upper hand and the result was a standoff. After a long advance or long white candlestick, a spinning top indicates weakness among the bulls and a potential change or interruption in trend."CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-15967543143196786492011-10-27T16:41:11.806-10:002011-10-27T16:41:11.806-10:00I'm keeping it simple here. It's all about...I'm keeping it simple here. It's all about Thursday's range. If we take out the highs then what I am counting as a 5th wave is extending and top would be next week around Fed day. If not then I have a completed top count in as of today and it will be confirmed by a drop below Thursday's low, in which case my 10/27 +/- 1 cycle nailed the top.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-51735655139835761292011-10-27T16:00:09.570-10:002011-10-27T16:00:09.570-10:00I like it POTUS...actually I like it more than min...I like it POTUS...actually I like it more than mine. A different timeline but the same bearish outcome 8)<br /><br />Wow, if this crash doesn't come, I'm going to be very dissapointed...am I getting too emotional?<br />Come on Rocky, Rein it in, stay objective.RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-59905241728583172882011-10-27T15:56:58.394-10:002011-10-27T15:56:58.394-10:00And thanks for the supportive sentiments everyone....And thanks for the supportive sentiments everyone.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-5034137827129997642011-10-27T15:56:21.320-10:002011-10-27T15:56:21.320-10:00POTUS:
Good analysis; I am inclined to agree with...POTUS:<br /><br />Good analysis; I am inclined to agree with you. Now that my preferred count has been eliminated, the A-B-C count becomes the most likely alternative.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74158006218448190262011-10-27T15:45:59.878-10:002011-10-27T15:45:59.878-10:00We head down tomorrow for a continuation of the 4t...We head down tomorrow for a continuation of the 4th wave as mentioned by Rocky I think citing Daneric work. This gets everyone to add to shorts going into weekend. This takes us to next week where the Fed gives us a full out inflation target of 3% and more QE3 talk and this is then followed up with some IMF and China involvement with the Euro spiv - this will be enough to take us up through 1300 by Thursday and finish wave 5 of C and that will have the most people in the elevator for the quick trip to the basement.POTUSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-11549986705604149372011-10-27T15:09:12.951-10:002011-10-27T15:09:12.951-10:00Yeah, the last hour of trade was the first time al...Yeah, the last hour of trade was the first time all day the 5 minute moving averages were violated...that was one helluva straight up rally.<br />Good to hear that we completed 5 waves yesterday. I'm game for selling from the outset. Unless Pretzel finds different support level, I'm eyeing today's low at 1265 to do a bit of covering.<br /><br />It would be ironic if the largest one month rally of a generation were followed by the largest one month drop of a generation, that would scare the crap out of mom and pop. But I tend to agree that when the drop does come, it will unfold a little slower at first. Maybe wave 1 down is subdued and wave 2 retraces close to 100%? a failure like that would definitely scare the bulls and give power to the 3 down. <br /><br />I bet after gyrating through 4 and 5, we're sitting at today's highs or near the fib suppport when we get the Fed announcement. With a 2.5% GDP print, no way Bernanke can get away with a QE3 right here. When he says no, we start wave 1 down. I bet jobs is lousy next week too and that's when we really start to back away from this TOP.RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-10381981341285625012011-10-27T14:29:53.060-10:002011-10-27T14:29:53.060-10:00On the bright side for bears is that we got a clea...On the bright side for bears is that we got a clear 5 wave impulse down on the intraday chart with that late day selling. But on the bull side that 5'er was almost too obvious and thus smells like a trap to me coming so late in the day.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-43551386334485302192011-10-27T14:24:12.421-10:002011-10-27T14:24:12.421-10:00OK,
Here's my 2 cents. Today's intraday h...OK,<br /><br />Here's my 2 cents. Today's intraday high becomes the line in the sand. Above that and this 5th wave rally is extending. <br /><br />Now as I think about it, maybe selling the news was just too obvious this morning. If the job of this rally is to purge all the bearishness then a gap and crap on the Euro news almost certainly would not have done it. On the other hand if the rally continues into next weeks Fed meeting AND the Fed does something to goose it further THEN we would really have a full scale rout on the bears. Sentiment measure like the AAII that Pretzel mentioned above are finally starting to get into the frothy zone, so another coupe days of rally and maybe sentiment hits the bullish redline.<br /><br />My original cycle read was for the 10/27 +/- 1 to be a low this week, but then this monring with such a hysterical rally I figured that HAD to be the end of it and that the 10/27 +/- 1 would be a top instead. It STILL may be as long as today's highs are not violated, but if they are then I would be on the lookout for possible continued melt-up into Fed day next week.<br /><br />Very tough market. Pretzel and I kept saying it wouldn't be easy and that there would be maximum confusion at the top. I guess we just didn't consider the fact that we too might be among the ranks of the confused ;-)<br /><br />Best.<br />CTPCTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-35546280609069366512011-10-27T14:16:43.811-10:002011-10-27T14:16:43.811-10:00Also... The rally that fools them all has to fool ...Also... The rally that fools them all has to fool Pretzel as well!Thalesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-67122324768345388412011-10-27T14:15:14.560-10:002011-10-27T14:15:14.560-10:00Keep up the good work Pretzel. No one blames you. ...Keep up the good work Pretzel. No one blames you. You're not my broker, financial advisor, or my preist. I follow you some, fade you some, and generally enjoy your commentary. See you on the Stool.Thalesnoreply@blogger.com