tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post3807895376973138654..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: 1344 Reversal Target Hit, Time for the Expected Relief RallyPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger339125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-29206894918693401982012-05-12T09:47:46.274-10:002012-05-12T09:47:46.274-10:00http://www.zazzle.com/caffeine_into_code_bumper_st...http://www.zazzle.com/caffeine_into_code_bumper_sticker-128109917792227951Dust Devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-62254484276896038122012-05-12T09:22:23.513-10:002012-05-12T09:22:23.513-10:00"Trading hours for dollars" never heard ..."Trading hours for dollars" never heard it put so succintly before. <br /><br />I can totally empathize wth you on the TZA. Made the same mistake and held almost as long. <br /><br />Hopefully, my book will help you!<br /><br />-Mark<br /><br />(j/k for those smart a** out there...you know who you are :D)Whip_sawednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-6812253129138758612012-05-12T08:08:27.207-10:002012-05-12T08:08:27.207-10:00Thanks for the reply Katzo and that is a pretty go...Thanks for the reply Katzo and that is a pretty good chart showing divergences and how big moves can happen without them as to not rely on them for confirmations.<br /><br />As for the OCD it's actually a lot worse than you think, I'm a self taught engineer that started programming before I was in kindergarden... like I said I am a nerd! Interestingly enough software architecture and development is also more art than science as you are always trying to find an elegant solution to complex problems.I do have an iphone but I also subscribe to stockcharts.com so I'll start looking back at single intra-day charts and start cataloging the various forms. As for the blue background, the candles are bright green, red, and white so there is more than enough contrast to see them. With being behind my 3 monitors 16+ hours a day (when the wife and kids don't yank me away) I try to avoid the retina burn of white backgrounds (I too am called a Borg/machine since I also only sleep about 4 hrs a night... I'll sleep plenty when I'm dead!)I don't look at 1 min charts anymore, typically 5 minute throughout the day and 3 min o/n since everything is so slow in those hours.<br /><br />Thanks again!Clayton233noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-29928945760723408532012-05-12T07:46:17.374-10:002012-05-12T07:46:17.374-10:00Goals are generally speculative to grow my capital...Goals are generally speculative to grow my capital and take advantage of what appears to be a big downward move coming in the market. Longer term I would like to get out of the business of exchanging hours for dollars, because even though I'm paid well as an independent consultant, my income potential is at a plateau and last time I checked the one thing the FED hasn't been able to inflate is the number of hours in a day :)<br /><br />Capital - without going into specifics, I've already torched half of the capital that I am able to lose by being on the far wrong side of the rally since Christmas. I've done some admittedly stupid things like being long TZA the whole time and didn't jump out when it was going the wrong way, going long and holding way out of the money options... <br /><br />Of course I don't want to lose it (I'd go to vegas or the Dominican Republic for that and have one hell of a time!) but I'm not counting on it either. There used to be more than enough capital to not have to worry about the pattern day trader rules... now not so much...<br /><br />Right now I'm still holding a modest position in TZA and long some SPY 142 June "pusts" :) The remainder is available for futures but only have enough buying power for one contract at a time (used to be 2 but recent piss poor trading has dropped it to one) I could go as far as 4 cars by liquidating the other positions. <br /><br />I'm constantly seeking knowledge and skills, so I read a lot of non fiction, right now I'm working on Mark Douglas's The disciplined trader, have already read F&P's elliot wave principle and getting ready to read it again, and have a beginner's guide to day trading online, and Trading for a Living will be here on Tuesday. Clayton233noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-91341135177288170792012-05-11T17:45:50.054-10:002012-05-11T17:45:50.054-10:00I watch and count RSI and MACD on the 3,5, 15,20,3...I watch and count RSI and MACD on the 3,5, 15,20,30,60, 240 timeframes. I use the following order, 3,15,60,240 and 5,20,60,240 timeframes. I find that the thing I watch for is the thrid divergence on the lower timeframes and the second divergence on the higher timeframes. I have no issues with non-confirmation with that approach.DirtnRockGuy62noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-13939961871423419252012-05-11T17:36:15.241-10:002012-05-11T17:36:15.241-10:00I like the 0.74 Delta trade myself, in IWM usually...I like the 0.74 Delta trade myself, in IWM usually good for about 0.85 a day or about 1.6 every other day. If the options are less than 600.00 ea I will trade then singly as a directional trade. More than that then debit spreads are the way I go.DirtnRockGuy62noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-84960797995635946102012-05-11T17:33:50.493-10:002012-05-11T17:33:50.493-10:00OK down to the beginnings of a system:
What are th...OK down to the beginnings of a system:<br />What are the goals and objectives of your trading account? How much capital can you risk, i.e. can you light this money on fire and watch it burn without losing anything at all? The answers to those two questions are important. You cannot hope to build a system that works without understanding what you want to accomplish and what you are able not willing but able to lose without causing problems.DirtnRockGuy62noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-43405007792337455492012-05-11T17:30:15.148-10:002012-05-11T17:30:15.148-10:00I am not trying to tell anybody how to trade. I p...I am not trying to tell anybody how to trade. I personally prefer to trade fewer trades with less at risk and make a greater percentage on capital. If I can't find a measured move that will produce a minimum 25 percent return on capital I will usually pass on the trade. Was looking at PCLN, just seemed a little to like AAPL near the end for my tastes so left it alone. HAve you run a filter on the ATR for the true range of RUT when VIX is above 18.50? I keep coming back to the point that RUT under those circumstances generally moves about 12 points a day so the BCS is a little scary for me on the risk reward side. Would rather take 5 IWM at 0.74 delta with an ATR of 1.3 and capture about 0.90 per day or about 1.6 every other day in a trending market. There are obviously periods when there is no trend in which case there is no trade.DirtnRockGuy62noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-70787425459887911522012-05-11T06:10:02.554-10:002012-05-11T06:10:02.554-10:00Thanks DRG for sharing valuable insight. on "...Thanks DRG for sharing valuable insight. on "check several time frames to confirm", would you elaborate a little, or what indicators do you watch? I use MACD, STO etc & they are hardly ever confirm one another in different timeframes, say daily, 60min, 15min, 5min, as the same indicators in bigger time frames tend to lag themselves in smaller time frames, and overbought in small frame can often be oversold in bigger frame.... thanks in advance.NJ268noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-91196991913176131602012-05-11T03:23:18.378-10:002012-05-11T03:23:18.378-10:00Hi CM, the simple theory behind an inside day is t...Hi CM, the simple theory behind an inside day is that buyers should show up above the previous day's high, and sellers' below the previous day's low.<br /><br />This site gives a lot more detail on the variations and saves me from having to type it all out. :)<br /><br />http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inside_day.asp#axzz1uZCodOJ0Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-78343313400903574732012-05-11T02:47:44.081-10:002012-05-11T02:47:44.081-10:00Very posssible. Parabolics do not end very well (B...Very posssible. Parabolics do not end very well (Berkank driven mrkt).katzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-36525026267722341792012-05-11T02:34:46.275-10:002012-05-11T02:34:46.275-10:00CM, in my humble opinion, the proper question is, ...CM, in my humble opinion, the proper question is, what is the mathematical criteria for exiting TVIX, so that possibly, one can re-enter later with some profit locked in. -DD ,,,,, http://screencast.com/t/zdAjnEGjDust Devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-14071241188948315322012-05-11T02:07:06.557-10:002012-05-11T02:07:06.557-10:00Maybe dog food is cheaper than cat food? -ddMaybe dog food is cheaper than cat food? -ddDust Devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-10885293783689033552012-05-11T01:57:01.588-10:002012-05-11T01:57:01.588-10:00 long es 51.50 long es 51.50katzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-30171837418842835002012-05-11T01:52:09.343-10:002012-05-11T01:52:09.343-10:00Update's posted, let's move the discussion...Update's posted, let's move the discussion to that thread. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-51880593542202270042012-05-11T01:45:13.489-10:002012-05-11T01:45:13.489-10:00 " Bought dip." way too funny.. . . " Bought dip." way too funny.. . .katzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-55161805010837549132012-05-11T01:44:45.220-10:002012-05-11T01:44:45.220-10:00LOL..."BTFD...it's the last bastion of ho...LOL..."BTFD...it's the last bastion of hope."...excellent S44 :)Nostradumassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-23729140022397394302012-05-11T01:40:56.541-10:002012-05-11T01:40:56.541-10:00ES/15 ~ mrkt is extremely dangerous at this point
...ES/15 ~ mrkt is extremely dangerous at this point<br /><br />http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/e12ebf2b-4f87-4841-a9c5-520a51f25712katzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-5588020664421116362012-05-11T01:35:32.957-10:002012-05-11T01:35:32.957-10:00good morning..:) now that the pro's are conf...good morning..:) now that the pro's are confused and TA wont work, here's a quote i just saw from another trader today... "China data hints continued slowdown, Spanish banks need intervention, <br />Greece needs coalition govt, rescue clarity, $JPM debacle. Bought dip." sandyone44noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-18156786650504864762012-05-11T01:31:58.923-10:002012-05-11T01:31:58.923-10:00Hi Katzo
Here is my view:
Bulls might form inver...Hi Katzo<br /><br />Here is my view:<br /><br />Bulls might form inverted hs pattern on ES futures with SPY 135 being right shoulder - that means we could rally up to 137.5 today ,, but in case we break the lows -- I think we could get a really ugly close for the week ,, so it all depends.<br /><br />Again my cycles telling me a "reversal" is to come by mid May ,, so will it be a LOW or a little high ? I think there is good chances we could plunge down into mid May ,, possible test 1290-1300 before a reversal up. So many think that we will bounce -- but we might not....Sqwiihttp://twitter.com/Sqwiinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74751763267430042812012-05-11T01:26:57.553-10:002012-05-11T01:26:57.553-10:00Yep, sorry. Don't know where I got Kass from ...Yep, sorry. Don't know where I got Kass from :\ Thanks mststery for the correction :DWhip_sawednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-81134306824432262912012-05-11T01:26:26.734-10:002012-05-11T01:26:26.734-10:00Pure conjecture alert...the run it down o/n, buy t...Pure conjecture alert...the run it down o/n, buy the dip, sell the afternoon rip M.O. may be back....only "they" know for sure. But I'm having deja vu all over again.Nostradumassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-8713200520232056812012-05-11T01:19:57.196-10:002012-05-11T01:19:57.196-10:00Yes...I have those...not kidding (feigned surprise...Yes...I have those...not kidding (feigned surprise by the crowd)....Reserved for Xmas day so the boy and me match...which reminds me that I gotta get something for the wife for Mutha's Day...or she's gonna beat me to death in my sleep with a Katzo.Nostradumassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-80241641082699745972012-05-11T01:19:55.048-10:002012-05-11T01:19:55.048-10:00out at 49, this is gettin way too strangeout at 49, this is gettin way too strangekatzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-45045714051890302952012-05-11T01:12:27.557-10:002012-05-11T01:12:27.557-10:00 I am changing my position here. We had the sell o... I am changing my position here. We had the sell off I was looking for (and called for yesterday RTH) in Globex with the JPM news, reached a low of 1345.25 ES. At that point (3 am) I said the Frankfort desk would either sell it off to 42 or buy it up, they bought it up, bringing it up to the 52 area. What I thought was a bear flag on the 120 ES chart is now turning into something really strange, therefore traditional TA is not gunna work correctly. It appears we will get one more plunge, I cannot get a level on it (45 again?) but will use my stochs to get out of my short, and then it appears we could go up. But that is a bit out there time wise, again, TA is not gunna work here.katzo7noreply@blogger.com