tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post4342388944649317271..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX and RUT Update: Are We There Yet?PretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger201125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-59219344793672353022012-01-01T23:31:15.279-10:002012-01-01T23:31:15.279-10:00The $ Chart looks like ready for a correction and ...The $ Chart looks like ready for a correction and the Euro is forming a bottom from where we may get a move. A Weak $ favors a Rally in the market at least till the Result season that starts with Alcoa later this week. How would you read the $ Charts ?Jose Koshynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-25113280626198440662011-12-30T00:48:20.332-10:002011-12-30T00:48:20.332-10:00Okay, update's posted, so let's continue d...Okay, update's posted, so let's continue discussions on that thread. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-7947016817091617632011-12-30T00:47:57.389-10:002011-12-30T00:47:57.389-10:00ty! I'll try to take a look at it over the we...ty! I'll try to take a look at it over the weekend. You might want to remind me on Saturday or so. Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-78282040678756934432011-12-29T20:15:35.061-10:002011-12-29T20:15:35.061-10:00Very interesting correlation!Very interesting correlation!dust_devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-72494776991587872712011-12-29T19:15:49.639-10:002011-12-29T19:15:49.639-10:00Solid work the past few days Pretz.
When you get ...Solid work the past few days Pretz.<br /><br />When you get a chance, which might be never and that's okay, curious what you see in silver. Last update I believe you had done was on 11/21. Great call on the $25-$27 range BTW as it touched down near $26 early today with a big bounce back near $28 as of this pm. I see a test of the low $20's but interested to see your take on it, as you did show a bounce higher from around here on your previous chartKBiiinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-56629758336971029662011-12-29T18:49:25.727-10:002011-12-29T18:49:25.727-10:00just saw your response- ironically this would coin...just saw your response- ironically this would coincide with the mayan calendar 'end of world' thingFirstfeaturenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-4605361108000875932011-12-29T16:08:39.222-10:002011-12-29T16:08:39.222-10:00Something along those lines. I would really have ...Something along those lines. I would really have to draw a chart for it to make more sense, I think. But the ABC is only the bullish count, and ignores the bearish potential.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-22974824552607794422011-12-29T16:05:47.648-10:002011-12-29T16:05:47.648-10:00LT average for AAII is 39% bulls, 30% bears. So i...LT average for AAII is 39% bulls, 30% bears. So it's about average right now, as opposed to extreme. However, it's not required that it be extreme at this point for a top to form. If the larger trend is down, then a slightly above average level of bulls is bad for longs.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-48121469140053986652011-12-29T15:54:33.804-10:002011-12-29T15:54:33.804-10:00PL, if PL, if soulsurferusanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-1025196646321164882011-12-29T15:53:16.591-10:002011-12-29T15:53:16.591-10:00I'm not complacent, FWIW. I'm still quite...I'm not complacent, FWIW. I'm still quite leary of a run toward 1310, however I do believe at least some further downside is due first. The market is in total limbo at this level, further highlighted by the inside compression day today.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-19879914400891066952011-12-29T15:48:54.421-10:002011-12-29T15:48:54.421-10:00Flat correction? what's that? another useless ...Flat correction? what's that? another useless sideways day? would be the perfect close for the year to sum the whole year up in one trading day; the last one. nobody wins, nobody losses, everybody frustrated. That's what you get when central banks start to tinker with the markets on a weekly basis to keep up appearances... <br /><br />Shoot, I completely forgot to check the NDX today; been sleeping at the wheel 'cause it was so boring. That one looks also ripe for the picking.soulsurferusanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-222044168142702042011-12-29T15:46:52.017-10:002011-12-29T15:46:52.017-10:00I have a feeling you're not asking a serious q...I have a feeling you're not asking a serious question, but more making a point... but I'll answer it as if it were a question. :)<br /><br />I always use "correction" in reference to the trend at the very next highest degree. So, in this case, a correction is against yesterday's move down, which I feel was, at its most bullish, the A leg down of an ABC. It's possible that today was a-up of the B leg of that correction and we still have B down and C up to come, but that could unfold as a trip back to yesterday's lows and then back to today's highs -- in other words, a "flat" correction.<br /><br />Or it's always possible that yesterday was something else entirely. When the market is "trendless" as you mention, it's sometimes much harder to get a read on what the wave is "supposed" to be.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-6429667173376053112011-12-29T15:43:41.824-10:002011-12-29T15:43:41.824-10:00PL, isn't 45+% extreme bullish sentiment readi...PL, isn't 45+% extreme bullish sentiment reading?soulsurferusanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-17030434913982383852011-12-29T15:36:03.833-10:002011-12-29T15:36:03.833-10:00financial collapse in Eu/Eu banks will neccesarily...financial collapse in Eu/Eu banks will neccesarily bring down US banking/financial system...they are tied at the hip...no way to decouple the! The derivatives domino collapse is just one part of the joint hips!Frednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-52792827400227184992011-12-29T15:13:25.658-10:002011-12-29T15:13:25.658-10:00I'm confused as to whether "correction&qu...I'm confused as to whether "correction" means a move up or down these days as its so trendlessGGekkonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-20976255958452744362011-12-29T15:11:05.679-10:002011-12-29T15:11:05.679-10:00Looks like we may have lured in enough bulls up he...Looks like we may have lured in enough bulls up here to mark a top eh?robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-56691125204343253372011-12-29T15:03:46.359-10:002011-12-29T15:03:46.359-10:00Latest AAII sentiment:
Bullish: 40.6%, up 6.9 po...Latest AAII sentiment:<br /><br /> Bullish: 40.6%, up 6.9 pointsNeutral: 28.6%, down 9.4 pointsBearish: 30.8%, up 2.6 pointsPretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-37929559055582293542011-12-29T14:54:27.454-10:002011-12-29T14:54:27.454-10:00Today was an inside compression bar, which implies...Today was an inside compression bar, which implies buyers will come in above yesterday's high, and sellers below yesterday's low. <br /><br />NDX looks like the weaker sister again. Could have been it for da snap-back rally... at the very least, we should see some lower prices than the close tomorrow. It looks like it could turn into a flat correction.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-40600934752574520382011-12-29T14:49:54.647-10:002011-12-29T14:49:54.647-10:00lmaolmaoPretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-23874931457456447342011-12-29T14:41:00.947-10:002011-12-29T14:41:00.947-10:00"Occupy Their Mom's Basement" classi..."Occupy Their Mom's Basement" classic. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-22003593902589555232011-12-29T14:38:53.151-10:002011-12-29T14:38:53.151-10:00BR, I agree. Why short at 1255 when you can at 126...BR, I agree. Why short at 1255 when you can at 1265! Added 10-point bonus. I placed some SPY Jan' 12 puts (23 days until expiration) at 126. Should be profitable.soulsurferusanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-81738984498816481312011-12-29T14:29:57.638-10:002011-12-29T14:29:57.638-10:00Great article, Arnie. My theory is that longs are...Great article, Arnie. My theory is that longs are about to get ruthlessly run over on a move back down to at least 1,225 in the very near future. There are no buyers up here. This light volume nonsense and slow motion up days wuth EOD runs of a couple points to print an HOD close is great for fakeout bull sentiment and to close out a dismal year. And for the Street to sell to the hopeful. <br /><br />But if anyone wants to see who can push around whom when there's a real move to make, you need look no further than yesterday's session. That was a preview. Today was necessry to clear out weak shorts and lull longs.<br /><br />Those same sellers that ran the market yesterday are still very much in play though. Just biding their time. And this market just doesn't have enough buyers left.brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-70004356746722154462011-12-29T14:17:33.604-10:002011-12-29T14:17:33.604-10:00Dave,
I agree that the US will eventually gain t...Dave, <br /><br />I agree that the US will eventually gain to benefit; but only after the Europe faces the actual financial collapse. Banks have been withdrawing from Europe already but they are in the midst of selling their non-core businesses to raise cash. They do not yet have resources and calm order to signficantly invest outside their core geographies and into the US to have any impact felt (by the US). Before the US benefits, the global markets will need to feel the pain of a European collapse. That means the S&P and global indexes will plummet first before they rise again.William Linoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-71371230368562651562011-12-29T13:58:15.289-10:002011-12-29T13:58:15.289-10:00The only thing I can't understand is gold. Oth...The only thing I can't understand is gold. Otherwise, his theory sounds right.dust_devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-8759535460598262552011-12-29T13:53:04.721-10:002011-12-29T13:53:04.721-10:00Ah, details details. We'll be OK. Consumer con...Ah, details details. We'll be OK. Consumer confidence is up!!<br /> <br />A Serious question for the group though. Was listening to a very interesting radio interview with an econ professor from Brown I think - can't remember his name - An Irish ex-pat. He actually had some very good insight into the problems we currently face as a global economy, and was of the mind that we face some real rough road ahead financially. Ugly actually. <br />He did have a somewhat different view as to what was going to be a "safe haven" though. His theory is that Europe will collapse financially, pressuring China greatly and all financial investors worldwide will run to the safety of the US dollar, pressuring our markets, however they will also run to US Stocks as a safe play, creating a rising Dollar and S&P500.<br /> <br />I'm just trying to wrap my head around the thought of European investments pulling from there and pouring intoour markets and the Dollar/Euro/S&P trade decoupling. In his scenerio US Dollars, US Stocks and I believe he mentioned US Treasuries rise.<br /> <br />Any thoughts?Davehttp://pulse.yahoo.com/_FPGSUHDKIZDV4BRJWIDQG56VCYnoreply@blogger.com