tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post4593870726591429777..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX and NDX Update: A Disturbing Look at Fundamentals, and the Rally ExplainedPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger157125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-16855929574199714222011-11-01T18:43:07.425-10:002011-11-01T18:43:07.425-10:00Hi John, I sent you an email.Hi John, I sent you an email.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-26685928730951933522011-11-01T16:58:18.354-10:002011-11-01T16:58:18.354-10:00Global Economic Intersection would like to cross-p...Global Economic Intersection would like to cross-post this article with full attribution and links to your site. Please respond to jlounsbury59athotmaildotcom.<br /><br />http://www.econintersect.com/index.htmJohn Lounsburyhttp://www.econintersect.com/index.htmnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-90566635449582877792011-11-01T02:07:07.964-10:002011-11-01T02:07:07.964-10:00mav-
Thanks! But I posted the update just the sa...mav-<br /><br />Thanks! But I posted the update just the same. :)<br /><br />TJ- <br /><br />Man, you're relentless! I actually put my shorts back on last night after looking at the wave structure and the futures action, and realizing this could be a minuette 3rd wave unfolding. After analysis, it looked like a good risk/reward. I'm short from 1243.75, basis ES futures.<br /><br />Jaco-<br /><br />I don't use 20% or anthing similar to define a bear market. I use wave counts and confirming indicators like daily RSI and MACD. I've been saying we're in a bear market since August. :)<br /><br />Let's move all future discussion/replies to the new thread.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-43484882138423054242011-10-31T22:46:41.293-10:002011-10-31T22:46:41.293-10:00Ont market advice, I'm in the same boat. Have ...Ont market advice, I'm in the same boat. Have lost my playing capital twice already. (Only way to learn it seems, hope I have ;-)<br /><br />The most important lesson I suppose had been that the market could remain "wrong" a lot longer than I could remain solvent!<br /><br />I'm currently very much short and have been throughout the huge rally. Luckily yesterday and today had been lind to me so I'm back in the green on 2 of my 6 stocks already and the rest are getting close.<br /><br />I also tried shorting at resistence levels of a downtrend and still almost got shaken out. Now it is not over yet, but is this is really a bear market than that had been my saving grace.<br /><br />In Feb 09 I went long in a falling bear market and eventually wiped out 70% of my playing capital as I got bumped out at the lows. (And in those days my playing had been 5 times as large as what I'm prepared to risk now!)<br /><br />Btw, according to the talking heads we are not in a bear market yet as the decline had not yet been 20% from the highs. What is your definition for entering a "bear" market?<br /><br />From Sunny South Africa where the market is currently down -1.74% In fact everything is down, stocks, gold, oil, etc and not surprisingly - our currency too against the dollar!<br /><br />Jacojacostrausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02542311353896984645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-81117766583544837022011-10-31T22:44:16.198-10:002011-10-31T22:44:16.198-10:00Pretzel and CTP
If cash market opens at where fut...Pretzel and CTP <br />If cash market opens at where futures' trading at now (around 1230) I will be v interested to see where you will go short, and if you still think we will get a strong wave up sometime today or tomorrow.<br /><br />as for poker, i thought sites like PS still accept US?TJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-37302123972973779542011-10-31T21:01:42.840-10:002011-10-31T21:01:42.840-10:00No worries if you can't bud, not going to lose...No worries if you can't bud, not going to lose my support. This is the best blog out there.<br /><br />-mavmavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-30123079755171928572011-10-31T20:41:46.392-10:002011-10-31T20:41:46.392-10:00Mav,
I'll try to get something put together.....Mav,<br /><br />I'll try to get something put together... might be posted late (or early, depending on how you look at it) though.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-59517111637111550262011-10-31T19:45:36.640-10:002011-10-31T19:45:36.640-10:00im guessing no update today?im guessing no update today?mavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-28460942025580628422011-10-31T19:05:29.177-10:002011-10-31T19:05:29.177-10:00no worries pretzel! enjoy Halloween with your kids...no worries pretzel! enjoy Halloween with your kids!mavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-10678839164543804232011-10-31T18:42:38.900-10:002011-10-31T18:42:38.900-10:00mav, whoops, your comment was lost in the ether......mav, whoops, your comment was lost in the ether... okay off with the kids now.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-33683204544299024082011-10-31T18:33:22.888-10:002011-10-31T18:33:22.888-10:00so basically i said that the market should peak on...so basically i said that the market should peak on 11/4 and then turn then lol?mavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-68508934898233187172011-10-31T18:29:41.982-10:002011-10-31T18:29:41.982-10:00Just a couple quick Fed related stats and then it&...Just a couple quick Fed related stats and then it's bedtime for me.<br /><br />Bernanke started his press conferences this year and so far has done 2 of them. One the day before each of press conference (tomorrow) the SPX has been up +0.9% and +1.4% so far. Small sample size so take it with a grain of salt.<br /><br />One more thing I looked at 2-day Fed meetings in the Bernanke Era and performance of market in day 1 of the 2 day meeting. I was interested in time the market sold off ahead of the meeting so I filtered by 2-day RSI < 30. Of the 7 instances 5 closed higher on day 1 (71% win rate). Average winner was +2.6% but this was skewed by one huge gainer so if I throw that outlier out the average winner was still a respectable +0.6% while of the 2 losers the average loss was -0.4%.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-18596536097184263382011-10-31T18:04:33.207-10:002011-10-31T18:04:33.207-10:00POTUS said (edited): Pretz i was giving 5:1 on Fr...POTUS said (edited): Pretz i was giving 5:1 on Friday for the next move lower while you were snoozing :$. This market has been tough..sorry Rocky. My best guess is that a straight shot lower from here is too easy for what this market has been serving. We had a huge overthrow last Thursday which got all of the bears to recount and start thinking hard about the last leg up. Now we get the move below the all important H&S battleground ..too easy for shorts to pile in and make money. We drop into the 10:30 am suckers hour then we start our climb higher to backtest. Feels like backtest should culminate with Fed speak and then a kiss goodbye on the sell the G20 meeting when the US does not allow China a seat at the big boy's IMF table so China walks from the Euro Spiv.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-87198634231996285362011-10-31T18:03:48.802-10:002011-10-31T18:03:48.802-10:00Unfortunately, I do have to delete all posts sugge...Unfortunately, I do have to delete all posts suggesting the Subject Which Cannot Be Named, so POTUS and others, if you see a post you've written has gone missing, that's why.<br /><br />Gotta take the kids trick or treating... be back later.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-83782370462860954362011-10-31T17:39:42.529-10:002011-10-31T17:39:42.529-10:00lolzlolzmavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-88678106490716272342011-10-31T17:12:35.080-10:002011-10-31T17:12:35.080-10:00TJN,
No not $50 blinds, I was referring to $50 Si...TJN,<br /><br />No not $50 blinds, I was referring to $50 Sit N' Go (single table) tournaments. $50 was the tourney entry fee. Not playing online anymore after I got burned by having my bankroll seized when DOJ shut down Full Tilt. Hoping some day they will make it legal and I can start playing online again.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-62878882035421075142011-10-31T17:03:39.682-10:002011-10-31T17:03:39.682-10:00CTP
you mean small blind $50? Then we are not on ...CTP<br />you mean small blind $50? Then we are not on the same level as I only do $10 max (even then 3/6 is still comfort zone). any sites you are playing on now?TJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-5413859444924201782011-10-31T16:53:23.025-10:002011-10-31T16:53:23.025-10:00TJN,
Yes my poker style is tight and VERY aggress...TJN,<br /><br />Yes my poker style is tight and VERY aggressive ;-) ...<br /><br />That would be fun. Love playing Hold 'Em. Used to play online quite a bit before they shut down all the big poker sites to US players. Played $50 Sit N' Go's primarily and had 46% ROI. Lost a few thousand of my bankroll though when Full Tilt got seized in April and now that money is gone with the wind >:-(CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-81586209797245087942011-10-31T16:51:46.515-10:002011-10-31T16:51:46.515-10:00TJ-
That's how I play, tight, but aggressive....TJ-<br /><br />That's how I play, tight, but aggressive. Although, every now and then I'll throw in a weird hand to show at the showdown and keep everyone off balance. ;)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-44358033934624768162011-10-31T16:50:25.696-10:002011-10-31T16:50:25.696-10:00CTP-
EIGHTY percent? I've always maintained ...CTP-<br /><br />EIGHTY percent? I've always maintained that the stock market bubble started in 1995, roughly around the time of Greenspan's "irrational exuberance." In a way, their findings prove it. The Greenspan/Bernanke Put is still a force to be reckon with. At some point, when enough faith is lost in the system, that may cease to be the case.<br /><br />Mav,<br /><br />wot due ewe meen, MY speling? My speling is exelent! Eye wil have ewe no, eye am verry gud at speling, at leest MOWST of teh tyme! Sumtymes eye mite tipe a tipo hear or their, butt tha'ts yousually ITT! So THEY'RE!PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-61878714256970290962011-10-31T16:42:07.675-10:002011-10-31T16:42:07.675-10:00Pretzel and CTP, you both play Texas? We are in di...Pretzel and CTP, you both play Texas? We are in different parts of the world, but it would be great to have a game with you one day. CTP sounds like the tight aggressive type that I usually want to avoid :)TJNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-61225575086220863092011-10-31T16:38:37.953-10:002011-10-31T16:38:37.953-10:00from what I understand Greek vote does not occur u...from what I understand Greek vote does not occur until January.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-33553919314612174392011-10-31T16:31:13.049-10:002011-10-31T16:31:13.049-10:00event* gosh. my spelling is almost as bad as your ...event* gosh. my spelling is almost as bad as your pretzel ;) lolmavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-86278654768857280842011-10-31T16:30:37.587-10:002011-10-31T16:30:37.587-10:00Greece veto-ing the EU solution would be a black s...Greece veto-ing the EU solution would be a black swan even IMOmavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-50475400523676890552011-10-31T16:29:30.864-10:002011-10-31T16:29:30.864-10:00mavrich,
If you are looking for a "fundament...mavrich,<br /><br />If you are looking for a "fundamental" reason for a bounce next 2 days here it is ;-)<br /><br />http://historysquared.com/2011/09/17/stock-returns-rise-into-federal-reserve-meetings-suggests-fed-research/CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.com