tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post4874695519574684302..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: A Bit More Rally Still to Come?PretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger210125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-72130918316966413952011-12-01T03:23:50.601-10:002011-12-01T03:23:50.601-10:00Update's posted, so let's continue future ...Update's posted, so let's continue future discussion on that thread. :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-63031356250022210442011-12-01T02:44:36.827-10:002011-12-01T02:44:36.827-10:00I like you, Ray. You know your stuff! :)I like you, Ray. You know your stuff! :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-15208179864139154792011-12-01T02:41:07.355-10:002011-12-01T02:41:07.355-10:00PL,
Please correct me if I am wrong. In your S...PL, <br /> <br />Please correct me if I am wrong. In your SPX chart, Iam thinking of blue iii extension instead of blue v extension, so<br />the Wave blue 2 target may be different. For a zigzag blue 2 position, the maximum distance it usually travel is to the end of blue i. This current SPX close level is clustered with this target, fib 61.8% level, wave c of blue 2 target level (1.382 of wave a of blue 2), so it is very likely that the end of blue 2 is reached or near. I think right now is the silence period before the bear storm.Raynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-64785902052610088412011-12-01T01:12:59.374-10:002011-12-01T01:12:59.374-10:00*count*countMatteo Delpantanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-62956221710667922432011-12-01T01:12:38.868-10:002011-12-01T01:12:38.868-10:00anon20.. as I try to keep my writing a little more...anon20.. as I try to keep my writing a little more concise than yours at least do your best to read it properly.. I am long term bearish and expect this bear market rally to go until 1300-1330... I made my call on Friday morning before the markets satarted soaring... <br /><br />as i recall you failed to see the rally starting in october 4... so in all honesty anon20, your opinion and insults dont coult for much...Matteo Delpantanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-44581609641435302932011-12-01T00:25:48.452-10:002011-12-01T00:25:48.452-10:00Where's Colorado? (Oh, that's right, it&#...Where's Colorado? (Oh, that's right, it's between New Mexico and Wyoming.)<br /><br />Colorado, here's what jumps right out at me when I look at AUD/USD (see chart)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-12426715049230414112011-12-01T00:21:37.654-10:002011-12-01T00:21:37.654-10:00lol, it's gonna tempt me to jump right back in...lol, it's gonna tempt me to jump right back in here...<br /><br />Looked like an abc off the highs, which is why I covered. We'll see what happens over the next hour or two...PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-68521290875926414002011-12-01T00:16:21.268-10:002011-12-01T00:16:21.268-10:00True enough. My 'stand' is more IT. With...True enough. My 'stand' is more IT. With the belief that the larger mess that the world finds itself in today will overwhelm the a payroll or PMI report that will be forgotten by the start of next week.<br /><br />And that the 'sugar rush' of yesterday produces an eventual hang over. The Street may milk this for what they can get out of it, but they also know it doesn't really change anything.<br /><br />Even on perpetually bullish CNBC, they are talking openly how the CB move doesn't really solve the problem. Euro and European indexes are rallying right now on a 'successful' Spanish bond auction. That kind of news worries me far more for how any short position might fare.brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-55878767209491623352011-12-01T00:10:43.982-10:002011-12-01T00:10:43.982-10:00btw, I just covered my handful of ES shorts for a ...btw, I just covered my handful of ES shorts for a small to middlin' loss at 1237. I'm happy to either get stopped into a trade if the market cracks, or short again from higher levels. <br /><br />I'm content to wait this one out for a bit -- there's always money to be made tomorrow. PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-2777220230459676942011-11-30T23:56:27.220-10:002011-11-30T23:56:27.220-10:00The problem with all these correlated markets is t...The problem with all these correlated markets is that sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. For example AUD/USD rallied into mid 2008, which US equities were already "bearin' it up."PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-29708743692611414652011-11-30T23:56:13.999-10:002011-11-30T23:56:13.999-10:00You'd be braver than me to stake a stand again...You'd be braver than me to stake a stand against yesterday's very positive US non farm payroll and Chicago PMI data , both way ahead of forecasts. Until other data points decisively contradict that, I think this gives free reign to those of the "decoupling" persuasion.RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-48090784625732256132011-11-30T23:51:01.674-10:002011-11-30T23:51:01.674-10:00The other point yesterday was the very positive US...The other point yesterday was the very positive US non farm payroll and Chicago PMI data, both way ahead of forecasts. I suggest that meant short covering morphed into long positions being taken.RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-22033857344597766072011-11-30T23:43:36.250-10:002011-11-30T23:43:36.250-10:00Looks like the equities rally in Europe is already...Looks like the equities rally in Europe is already over. <br /><br />Decliners outpacing gainers by seven to three. And most indexes off by around a half a percent. <br /><br />Reality should set back in soon enough. China just reported very weak PMI numbers.<br /><br />A couple more bad bond auctions out of Europe, and we should be back to reality.brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-44118082479073561902011-11-30T23:40:17.090-10:002011-11-30T23:40:17.090-10:00That does make sense.
I think in the this particu...That does make sense.<br /><br />I think in the this particular case, what was going on in the equities markets had pretty much nothing to do with the central banks' intervention. <br />The credit market 'dislocation' and impending freeze up in inter-bank lending was enough by itself to make the CB's make their dramatic announcement.brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-63130286854814548882011-11-30T23:34:26.395-10:002011-11-30T23:34:26.395-10:00Alright, alright. I'll go look at aussie doll...Alright, alright. I'll go look at aussie dollar right now. :)<br /><br />I do watch copper fairly closely, as well as oil.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-29818031171666973432011-11-30T23:13:03.717-10:002011-11-30T23:13:03.717-10:00Head up friend, your doing great. All will be grea...Head up friend, your doing great. All will be great, I hear that Zimbabwe is going to bail out Italy. I hear they're flush with cash. ;)<br />Seriously, I know your sick of hearing me say it but the key lies with Ad because it measures the fear of risk and also with crude because it shows the true state of global activity plus global instability. Global instability is at elevated levels and still cl has rallied very weakly over the past few days and is as I write this loosing ground. These two may not be the glory markets but they hold a lot more information than most realize. Copper too, more so than the precious metals or the Dollar or the Bonds. Just saying that as long as the Ad has strength the markets will find it hard to have a significant break down.<br />Beaides that i hear we are supposed to get bitter cold and snow here, so take in some fresh tropcal breese and chuckle about how crazy some of us really are. ;PColoradonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-59062624431597482262011-11-30T23:01:24.392-10:002011-11-30T23:01:24.392-10:00The disconnect could have been resolved the other ...The disconnect could have been resolved the other way - by equities tanking to bring them in line - if it hadn't been for those pesky central bankers...<br /><br />Another day!RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-83829372046492521162011-11-30T22:51:44.958-10:002011-11-30T22:51:44.958-10:00Good post. That makes sense.Good post. That makes sense.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-86358089284386477962011-11-30T22:47:32.028-10:002011-11-30T22:47:32.028-10:00Amidst the equity market falls last week, we comm...Amidst the equity market falls last week, we commented on here of the likelihood of imminent central bank policy response to the credit situation emanating from the Euro Zone (EZ).<br /><br />The difficulty has been the degree of disconnect there's been between equity and credit. While credit markets were flashing DEFCON1, equity, despite the falls, was much more sanguine relatively. After equity rallied from the 1150 area, this disconnect became greater: EZ credit market strains showed no signs of easing.<br /><br />Hence, looking solely at equity markets, it would have appeared that the strong likelihood of a central bank response had diminished (since they like to act at extremes of negative sentiment in order to garner the greatest bang for their buck).<br /><br />It seems that, despite the equity rally from the 1150 lows, EZ credit markets were close to a dislocation point, with the systemic risk that would have entailed. Seen in that light, it's easier to view the timing of the central bank policy response.RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-78304911491788006652011-11-30T22:37:35.001-10:002011-11-30T22:37:35.001-10:00Awesome dudeAwesome dudeColoradonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-12078039908644310112011-11-30T22:25:29.149-10:002011-11-30T22:25:29.149-10:00Moreso than most days, a lot of people today felt ...Moreso than most days, a lot of people today felt that these weren't their crayons. I find this completely understandable. :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-66140988983363840802011-11-30T21:46:42.861-10:002011-11-30T21:46:42.861-10:00I'm around... just working. I think most ever...I'm around... just working. I think most everyone else went to bed. :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-8302742444824281082011-11-30T21:14:13.621-10:002011-11-30T21:14:13.621-10:00WOW what an impressive rally/dead cat/whatever. Lu...WOW what an impressive rally/dead cat/whatever. Luckily I closed most of my shorts at profits Monday and Wednesday. And I even decided to go long in a security (NPN - Naspers) before the fireworks started and NPN was still more than -1.5% down. It closed the day over 3% up. Unfortunately my gold and oil shorts took me down more than that gain, but it did lesson the blow somewhat!<br /><br />I'm still up over 100% over the last 3 months, however, so still enjoying this roller coaster....jacostrausshttp://www.strauss.za.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74598379906505026332011-11-30T21:10:49.784-10:002011-11-30T21:10:49.784-10:00I think the shorts are out getting drunk to kill ...I think the shorts are out getting drunk to kill the pain.HTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-37786452466062938582011-11-30T20:53:29.081-10:002011-11-30T20:53:29.081-10:00Wow, this place has gone quiet. I think that there...Wow, this place has gone quiet. I think that there are a lot of discouraged people out there. Really friends, take heart. The next big move is around the corner and this will all be swept away into euphoria. You will triumph if you don't become feint of heart. One thing I pulled away from Livingston ( I read it many, many years ago) was that no matter what happened he always got up and tried again. So put on your rally caps or crash helmets because one way or another we are in for a great ride. Happy trading!Coloradonoreply@blogger.com