tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post5308302803295431146..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: Crash Wave Ready; Confirmation Still PendingPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger178125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-2283696032161312772011-11-13T13:43:05.770-10:002011-11-13T13:43:05.770-10:00Other Anon,
ty :)
Regarding LT targets, I would...Other Anon,<br /><br />ty :)<br /><br />Regarding LT targets, I would guess late 2012ish; maybe early 2013. Some of that is going to depend on what happens right here.<br /><br />I'll try to take a look at the chart you mentioned when I have some time.<br /><br /><br /><br />btw, everyone, Monday's update is posted, let's continue the discussion on that thread.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-1340643507338786342011-11-13T13:39:54.209-10:002011-11-13T13:39:54.209-10:00Anon20,
I am referring to more of a waterfall cra...Anon20,<br /><br />I am referring to more of a waterfall crash at this stage. The big crash you are referring to would be a bit down the line, in 3 of (3). This would be a prelude... more of a mini-crash to set up the big crash.<br /><br />As I said in the articles, I would look for the first trip to take us down toward 1000 over the next few weeks (assuming we can ever take out support here!), then a small bounce, THEN the big crash. Sorry for any confusion, but the body of the articles have described this.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-60205189571707085882011-11-13T06:54:34.819-10:002011-11-13T06:54:34.819-10:00ANON20,thanks for sharing your experiences of the ...ANON20,thanks for sharing your experiences of the 87 crash. Quite interesting, and timely to the current discussion. I was in college and not watching the market back then.SpikerJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18395405581766207065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-11611834501986892162011-11-13T05:50:52.673-10:002011-11-13T05:50:52.673-10:00Pretzel, I have been following your blog for a whi...Pretzel, I have been following your blog for a while and am very impressed by your analysis. As a (fundamental) sell-side analyst myself I don't know much about T. But I do know how important it is to stick to your view if its backed by good analysis even if its not consensual. Well done!<br /><br />I had 2 questions/requests, if possible. <br /><br />1) You talk about mid-term target for the S&P of as low as 400. What is your rough timeframe here - 3 months, 6m or 12m? Also any other bearish (but not quite so) targets for next year (ie testing the 2009 trough)?<br /><br />2) I know you have a lot on your plate - but given your spot-on analysis of Apple. In Europe there is another stock where the chart looks pretty similar. ARM Holdings. Have a look at the chart of the UK listing in GBP. Its breathtaking. Was wondering what EW says about where its headed?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-29240997326473174832011-11-13T03:45:09.628-10:002011-11-13T03:45:09.628-10:00So you believe then, that even my spx 70 point, 6%...So you believe then, that even my spx 70 point, 6% drop in 1-day "crash" scenario above, is even too much a drop, as a potential fall for next week? <br /><br />So then, when you decided your title for your last 2 posts, that a "Crash Wave" was soon forthcoming, you did not literally mean a 1-day major event, but a series of days of mini-crashes, is that correct?<br /><br />You see, I lived through oct. 19, 1987 crash (and that was a 22.5% drop in only 1 day). Thus, to me, that day is what I measure the word "crash" by. (Additionally, the entire week prior to the Oct.19 crash Monday, the market was falling several percentage points nearly each day; thus, by the weekend, there was extreme panic in the newspapers, TV, etc., setting up the huge percentage fall on Monday). <br /><br />I remember now that I placed several stock buy orders in the premarket that day, at literally HALF the price of each stock I selected (just to see what would happen), and believe it or not, I got almost every order filled at HALF the friday-price of the stock; and the few that were not filled, happened solely because of broker error, since the volume was stratospheric that day, it was sheer mass pandemonium, and seller had to place just market orders, since if they didnt, it would not be filled. <br /><br />Probably the most extraordinary worldwide mass panic day I have witnessed. (BTW, I sold all I had bought the very next day, and for a handsome profit of a few thou, becaue even I didn't trust in that market to hold on to the shares even at half price, yrt I knew there'd be at least be a 1 day bounce, I could sell into. Besides, I had bought them mostly on margin).<br /><br />Therefore, whenever I read the word "crash" in an article title, I am looking for something really big (percentagewise) and longterm meaningful; and not just some small 3% fall, like the spx had last week. So I'd say at least a double of that, say 6%, ergo my call above for a dro next week to less than 1215, above 1190. Tell me if that makes sense to you.<br /><br />I am looking for what you ew techs call "the point of recognition". Or is that point still much further down the road, do you think.<br /><br />ANON20<br /><br />btw, took a look at the gold chart now, looks like it's zigzagging up abc style like the spx, have you looked at gold lately.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-89383466178540608332011-11-13T02:09:20.782-10:002011-11-13T02:09:20.782-10:00Anon20-
TY for the link.
I would be shocked if ...Anon20-<br /><br />TY for the link. <br /><br />I would be shocked if the market took out the 1190 support in one day.<br /><br />Also, if you look at 2008, the biggest one day drop during any portion of 1 of (3) was "only" roughly about 40 points.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-80378968205529052792011-11-13T01:29:03.811-10:002011-11-13T01:29:03.811-10:00here's are the charts and analysis--
http://w...here's are the charts and analysis--<br /><br />http://www.etfguide.com/research/705/8/The-Chart-That<br /><br />ANON20Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-72718591095447141402011-11-13T01:26:49.442-10:002011-11-13T01:26:49.442-10:00PL, you might find these 2008/2011 chart compariso...PL, you might find these 2008/2011 chart comparisons interesting. This guy from ETF Guide does not use ew, but he nevertheless comes to similar longterm conclusions as yourself. <br /><br />However, he is not a daily timer, so his work is of no assistance regarding next week, except to note that the bottom of the large 2011 h&s neckline should contain whatever feeble seasonal rally there may still be left to continue attempting to struggle upward; yet it's only simply delaying the large longterm downtrend similar to 2008, and not changing it.<br /><br />As for my own view, it's only a matter of trading hours, and not days, before the spx drops hard; and the longer it takes, the worse the drop will be. Have you made any fibonacci projections, as to what the first stop, of a 1-day drop, could be? Down to 1190, or 1215? Probably in-between appears technically correct. Psychologically, just above 1200 spx. That would be about a 70 point drop from these levels, or 6%, doubling the 3% 1-day drop from last week. I think that would be the top potential for a 1-day drop from where spx is now. Do you agree, or do you see as possible a 1-day break of the strong support at 1190?<br /><br />ANON20Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-52062361960275762332011-11-13T00:10:31.235-10:002011-11-13T00:10:31.235-10:00After studying the charts this weekend, while it&#...After studying the charts this weekend, while it's always possible we roll over right at the open on Monday, I think it's far more likely we'll get some more upside Monday and roll either later in the day or Tuesday/Wednesday.<br /><br />I've just about got the weekend update ready and will post it Sunday sometime.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-34036357687295336502011-11-12T23:06:46.330-10:002011-11-12T23:06:46.330-10:00Hoookey dokey, posted some charts of the Shanghai ...Hoookey dokey, posted some charts of the Shanghai Composite.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-48772035254792468462011-11-12T14:13:06.577-10:002011-11-12T14:13:06.577-10:00Pretz,
Cool, I look forward to seeing your countPretz,<br /><br />Cool, I look forward to seeing your countCTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-27712184387536674652011-11-12T11:42:53.746-10:002011-11-12T11:42:53.746-10:00CTP I have a count for ssec, I'll try to get i...CTP I have a count for ssec, I'll try to get it posted later.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-29110536864444721432011-11-12T11:29:41.464-10:002011-11-12T11:29:41.464-10:00The most important chart for next week...
http://...The most important chart for next week...<br /><br />http://ctptrader.blogspot.com/2011/11/most-important-chart-for-next-week.html<br /><br />maybe Pretzel can do a wave count on $SSECCTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-80540608376184245802011-11-12T11:03:04.989-10:002011-11-12T11:03:04.989-10:00Anon LS,
I appreciate *everything* you mentioned ...Anon LS,<br /><br />I appreciate *everything* you mentioned very much! :)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-77837077431234457702011-11-12T11:01:40.006-10:002011-11-12T11:01:40.006-10:00Arnie,
Just based on the waveforms in the charts...Arnie, <br /><br />Just based on the waveforms in the charts, a little rally extension appears somewhat likely... but not guaranteed. <br /><br /><br />CTP,<br /><br />I should pay more attention to myself sometimes. Remember back on Nov. 2 we were discussing whether the decline was an extended fifth, and what we could expect... and I said:<br /><br />"PretzelLogic said... <br />CTP:<br /><br />Yes. Also the retracement after an extended fifth is often a complex, double retracement. So that could generate the confusion I'm expecting. <br /><br />November 2, 2011 2:15 AM"<br /><br />How prescient does that sound now? :o I think at some point I allowed myself to become convinced it wasn't an extended fifth and stopped giving weight to the double retracement.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-32571296240748671902011-11-12T10:08:21.459-10:002011-11-12T10:08:21.459-10:00wow you can sense the animosity towards the ERCI g...wow you can sense the animosity towards the ERCI guy. he definitely stood his ground thoughmavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-85692779343680689662011-11-12T09:13:41.619-10:002011-11-12T09:13:41.619-10:00smells like a bear market rally... :
http://www.f...smells like a bear market rally... :<br /><br />http://www.firstpost.com/investing/smells-like-a-bear-market-rally-its-time-to-wait-watch-129430.htmlArniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05540101332450928069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-55629880772359068142011-11-12T08:39:21.458-10:002011-11-12T08:39:21.458-10:00Over at my blog a new post with some contingency p...Over at my blog a new post with some contingency planning just in case we don't see a reversal lower early next week...<br /><br />http://ctptrader.blogspot.com/2011/11/just-in-case.htmlCTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-23988752554495446162011-11-12T07:41:06.410-10:002011-11-12T07:41:06.410-10:00CTPtrader,
Thanks for the link. It is very refres...CTPtrader,<br /><br />Thanks for the link. It is very refreshing.<br /><br />RayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-14038142565093984032011-11-12T06:57:03.127-10:002011-11-12T06:57:03.127-10:00Pretz, I think Monday will see a temporary extend ...Pretz, I think Monday will see a temporary extend of Friday's rally (aka memory effect) and then it will start to go down to end ~LOD. Why? Looking at the 30min chart <br />1) BB's have become extremely narrow: will be followed by rapid widening (see for example Oct 24-25, or Oct 28-31)<br />2) MACD is at a top and flattened out (though not crossing)<br />3) RSI is at 85 (over bought is >70, and not much more room to grow to 95+)<br />4)SSTO is at 88,89 and been topping all friday (not much room to grow to 95+)<br />5) CCI topped early Friday morning and has been steadily decreasing all day. Check 0ct 24, 27. Nov 4 etc for similar pattern and what happened the day after...<br /><br />IMHO there might be a little room to grow right into the upper end of your wave ii target zone and from there on it's going down!Arniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05540101332450928069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-24930048868012446882011-11-12T06:42:42.592-10:002011-11-12T06:42:42.592-10:00Ray,
Good point about ECRI, also notice how hosti...Ray,<br /><br />Good point about ECRI, also notice how hostile the CNBC anchors were towards the ECRI guy when they had him on Monday. It was practically a lynch mob, they just didn't want to hear anything negative and were desperate to discredit his analysis...<br /><br />http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000055854<br /><br />Reminds me alot of the Mark Haines interview of Peter Schiff at the the 3:08 mark of the video linked below... <br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0YTY5TWtmUCTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-65313516555724436072011-11-12T06:21:16.344-10:002011-11-12T06:21:16.344-10:00ECRI (Economical Cycle Research Institute) have a ...ECRI (Economical Cycle Research Institute) have a US recession call since September, so combining this business cycle forcast and PL Elliott wave analysis, I believe the bear will<br />prevail.<br /><br />RayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-70770235980791860342011-11-11T19:04:18.879-10:002011-11-11T19:04:18.879-10:00Anon, thanks. It is excruciating, so hopefully it...Anon, thanks. It is excruciating, so hopefully it hasn't all been in vain this time around.<br /><br /><br />Here are the clues:<br /><br />It would be odd for this to be the smaller second wave at this point; it's unusual to get two retracements this deep in a row. I would be more inclined (at this moment) to think it is actually the c-wave of the a-b-c shown in the chart I posted Thursday. In other words, this is still part of red wave (ii). <br /><br />So if that's correct, Monday could see some continued rally before a reversal.<br /><br />I wish I had some more concrete answers for everyone at the moment. It was just one of those days that raises more questions than it answers. :(PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-36372468645043500522011-11-11T18:55:47.327-10:002011-11-11T18:55:47.327-10:00Interestingly, the dollar got the tag of the 77 le...Interestingly, the dollar got the tag of the 77 level I suggested the other night:<br /><br />PretzelLogic said... <br /><br />Hmm. Not liking the action in the dollar right now. Looks like it's forming a triangle; possibly a B-wave, which could lead prices down toward the 77 level over the ST. <br /><br />November 10, 2011 7:47 PM <br /><br /><br /><br />It now looks like it might want to make a *slighly* lower low, so we might get a continued stock bounce on Monday morning. The dollar should hold 76.675 if the bull case there and bear case in equities is correct.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-52529062497693197832011-11-11T18:37:20.455-10:002011-11-11T18:37:20.455-10:00PL
You have done some excruciating work! I, for ...PL<br /><br />You have done some excruciating work! I, for one, am grateful for your efforts. As you suggest, the market can mirror a Magic 8 ball with answers equally opaque. I hope you are able to get some rest this weekend and I look forward to your insight after you have had some time to digest this week's activity.<br /><br />CheersAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com