tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post5657519325304124177..comments2024-03-25T08:04:19.119-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: Sell the BouncePretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger173125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-34274259383918135642011-11-30T11:13:23.064-10:002011-11-30T11:13:23.064-10:00That's about the biggest rout to the upside th...That's about the biggest rout to the upside that I can remember. vulture711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-13344806011144349002011-11-30T01:37:48.717-10:002011-11-30T01:37:48.717-10:00I think it was Rolf's news -- although, it'...I think it was Rolf's news -- although, it's really what I was seeing in the charts all night, just had a hard time believing it, especially with all the "peer pressure," lol. <br /><br />But early on, I was talking about an ABC for the dollar, and a complex correction that tests the bottom line of the trend channel, etc.. Then I talked myself out of it. :)<br /><br />Who knows, still 3 hours til the open, things could change again... but I doubt it. Usually my first impression is the correct one.<br /><br />New update's posted, let's continue discussion on that thread. :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-13025877306767730422011-11-30T01:21:42.900-10:002011-11-30T01:21:42.900-10:00Wow add an instant 100 pts to the Ad and 50 to the...Wow add an instant 100 pts to the Ad and 50 to the Euro and stir briskly! What the heck happened?Coloradonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-3140023078966140442011-11-30T01:20:30.129-10:002011-11-30T01:20:30.129-10:00Looks like my first impression of the charts was t...Looks like my first impression of the charts was the correct one. Dollar looks like an a-b-c up now, and ES just went ballistic.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-54031529173552244652011-11-30T01:17:03.259-10:002011-11-30T01:17:03.259-10:00China just cut rates (reserve requirement ratio). ...China just cut rates (reserve requirement ratio). Shanghai Composite had tanked today, and was testing lows of the year, so a response of some kind is not entirely unexpected.RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-77880057741806316022011-11-30T00:10:54.725-10:002011-11-30T00:10:54.725-10:00Euro backtest held, ES still screwing around at th...Euro backtest held, ES still screwing around at the breakdown.<br /><br />Interesting article here, TY to Lugnut for calling my attention to it:<br /><br />"China's Exports to Europe 'Falling Off a Cliff'"<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-29/china-s-exports-to-europe-falling-off-cliff-chart-of-the-day.htmlPretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-29749656486321191232011-11-29T23:12:30.469-10:002011-11-29T23:12:30.469-10:00Euro now backtesting the breakdown, as is ES.Euro now backtesting the breakdown, as is ES.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-4008931968082688982011-11-29T22:09:33.481-10:002011-11-29T22:09:33.481-10:00 The top formation on the Euro targets roughly 1.... The top formation on the Euro targets roughly 1.315 -- if they can hold 1.332 on backtest, next stop should be 1.315.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-76663372581468155962011-11-29T22:04:05.903-10:002011-11-29T22:04:05.903-10:00Dollar chart's real messy. What bothered me w...Dollar chart's real messy. What bothered me was the 3-wave rally earlier (well, yesterday for you guys) in the dollar. I think that was probably a B-wave, though. Like I said earlier, the equity rally *could* count complete. <br /><br />One way or another, I'm sure we'll break the recent lows -- but it's a little tricky over the very ST... some things are simply beyond anyone's power to predict, such as *exactly* how a correction will play out. Still have a lot of work to do, chart-wise. PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-32177866403570689692011-11-29T21:51:52.792-10:002011-11-29T21:51:52.792-10:00The dollar moving down never made any sense to me....The dollar moving down never made any sense to me. What you just posted sounds a lot more fitting with what one should expect.brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-60798336164030552832011-11-29T21:48:49.351-10:002011-11-29T21:48:49.351-10:00Just looked at the futes. Not surprising
Dollar ...Just looked at the futes. Not surprising<br /><br />Dollar breaking out and Euro dropping too, huh?Back down we go in the cash market tomorrow. Where it stops . . . only Pretz knows. Ha, ha. ;)brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-75792874683189471342011-11-29T21:48:03.075-10:002011-11-29T21:48:03.075-10:00Nice! My shorts shall be happy! Still think we are...Nice! My shorts shall be happy! Still think we are going to retest 1220-1230? Given the intense selling upon strength today as well, and the minimum ABC (C=0.382A) correction requirement fulfilled for 2 of 3 down of 1 of 3 down, I feel like we are headed south again. Just my two cents. Can't wait for your opinion in your next post.HTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-15344684338130757942011-11-29T21:44:32.848-10:002011-11-29T21:44:32.848-10:00Ooooh... I think I see what the dollar was doing....Ooooh... I think I see what the dollar was doing. Dollar looks headed right back to 80. If they can tack on a fifth wave, then that triangle will be part of a nested 1-2. Looks like it's targeting 80 either way. Then we shall see.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-87259422370932052512011-11-29T21:17:36.489-10:002011-11-29T21:17:36.489-10:00eur/usd being hammered . 1.33200 to 1.32675 in 15 ...eur/usd being hammered . 1.33200 to 1.32675 in 15 minutes flat.vinod vnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-5201883128859516872011-11-29T21:16:55.380-10:002011-11-29T21:16:55.380-10:00lol- there goes the neighborhood. Dollar staging ...lol- there goes the neighborhood. Dollar staging strong breakout, as suggested. ES down 13. Euro 1.327.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-47804826623776999912011-11-29T20:54:44.471-10:002011-11-29T20:54:44.471-10:00You gonna post it? :)You gonna post it? :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-27964458959415881562011-11-29T20:46:19.680-10:002011-11-29T20:46:19.680-10:00I have it all fixed up, and man do I feel pumped! ...I have it all fixed up, and man do I feel pumped! Thanks PLColoradonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-62725811420756528692011-11-29T20:22:59.455-10:002011-11-29T20:22:59.455-10:00Zigzag is two 5's separated by a 3. Double zi...Zigzag is two 5's separated by a 3. Double zigzag is two of those on top of each other, separated by a larger 3 (the x wave)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-24509426756945419372011-11-29T20:20:21.234-10:002011-11-29T20:20:21.234-10:00Cool. At the top I change it up about 30 times as ...Cool. At the top I change it up about 30 times as it was developing. I also originally had it as a double zig zag but didn't know whether you could have a 5 wave count for each of the legs and it seemed cleaner with the 5 count legs. Thanks for the critique. <br /><br />I also did some big picture work but got a little tied up on some counts. When you do it one day I will be definitely be interested.Coloradonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-49639339658014378242011-11-29T20:08:45.911-10:002011-11-29T20:08:45.911-10:00It's a good rookie effort. :)
The last wave ...It's a good rookie effort. :)<br /><br />The last wave of the structure doesn't reconcile, though. Waves 1 and 4 cannot cross the same price territory except in an ending diagonal. Depending on the larger count would depend on how I labeled that final wave. Just looking at it without a larger frame of reference, I would be tempted to label it as either: <br /><br />an expanded flat: abc (as you have) for A, then a (where you have (1)), b where you have (2), and c where you have (5) for B, then the current wave would be C down. The red 1 would be 3 of C, the 2 would be 4 of C.<br /><br />If you were to try and label it impulsively, it's a little more challenging. This is why I'd need to look at the larger count. I'd be more inclined to label the entire rally as a double zigzag correction at first glance. <br /><br />It's almost impossible to do accurate counts without big-picture context, though. Looking at the chart is a bit like turning to page 200 of the latest bestselling novel, and trying to figure out the whole story from that one page. :) PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-83028127781876397042011-11-29T19:47:57.105-10:002011-11-29T19:47:57.105-10:00I am also noticing some divergence in market actio...I am also noticing some divergence in market action between AD and Euro over the last few hours. For the last 3 days AD would advance even when the Euro stalled but now AD is at the bottom of its range, while the Euro is rising a bit. May be nothing, but just an observation.Coloradonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-66206817278817560812011-11-29T19:33:10.547-10:002011-11-29T19:33:10.547-10:00Here is my AD count. I am a beginner so have mercy...Here is my AD count. I am a beginner so have mercy ;). I know that my nomenclature is probably totally wrong, but heck you can't learn if you don't try, right.Coloradonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-87602315034657301852011-11-29T19:09:01.470-10:002011-11-29T19:09:01.470-10:00So far, the dollar has almost perfectly followed m...So far, the dollar has almost perfectly followed my scratch-paper path drawing.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-37159254582815143872011-11-29T17:53:21.467-10:002011-11-29T17:53:21.467-10:00Apparently they spent their last hard assets on an...Apparently they spent their last hard assets on another round of Jaeger shots as the eur is dropping hard and es going lower. But it's many hours until us markets open, tomorrow should be telling.williamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-41244381704320985662011-11-29T17:31:17.707-10:002011-11-29T17:31:17.707-10:00I really hope you are right, that come tomorrow mo...I really hope you are right, that come tomorrow morning the elevator doors open but carriage isn't there.Coloradonoreply@blogger.com