tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post6020993055647821259..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX and Crude Oil Update: Rally Ready to Roll Over for Good?PretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger192125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-51132525225461249152011-11-10T00:38:34.883-10:002011-11-10T00:38:34.883-10:00Hahaha, I just read that the JSE is green because ...Hahaha, I just read that the JSE is green because the ruling party in SA suspended its youth leader for 5 years this morning, subject to an appeal.<br /><br />Wonder what they'll say this afternoon when we turn red LOL. No doubt "risk aversion" and "European jitters"jacostrausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02542311353896984645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-65254642734116515212011-11-10T00:09:33.130-10:002011-11-10T00:09:33.130-10:00Would love a little move up at the open from "...Would love a little move up at the open from "bargain hunters" to load some extra ammo in the short gun ;)GordonGekkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04663077811792784833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-48651898798074139722011-11-09T23:42:26.232-10:002011-11-09T23:42:26.232-10:00Judging by SA's JSE be up 0.74% at the mo, thi...Judging by SA's JSE be up 0.74% at the mo, this Bull might be providing many decent entry points on the way down....jacostrausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02542311353896984645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-46600502213703062242011-11-09T21:44:18.854-10:002011-11-09T21:44:18.854-10:00btw, AAII sentiment came out for the week ending 1...btw, AAII sentiment came out for the week ending 11/9:<br /><br />Bullish<br /> <br />44.7%<br />up 4.6 <br /><br />Neutral<br /> <br />30.7%<br />up 0.5<br /> <br />Bearish<br /> <br />24.6%<br />down 5.1PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-56453016471039798552011-11-09T20:44:19.133-10:002011-11-09T20:44:19.133-10:00Correct.Correct.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-14092851504885487042011-11-09T20:30:14.966-10:002011-11-09T20:30:14.966-10:00So black 1 of minor (3) should undercut oct4 low c...So black 1 of minor (3) should undercut oct4 low correct?Franknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-64040958867134997902011-11-09T20:20:47.788-10:002011-11-09T20:20:47.788-10:00Essentially, yep. :)
Basically, on that chart, we...Essentially, yep. :)<br /><br />Basically, on that chart, we would be just under the blue (2) of 2008, now in the early stages of black 1 of wave (3).PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-60487987957289128432011-11-09T20:09:36.458-10:002011-11-09T20:09:36.458-10:00Sorry Pretzel I forgot the long term spx picture. ...Sorry Pretzel I forgot the long term spx picture. Stupid me. So we are at the start of wave 3 of (3), with wave (3) eventually undercutting the 3/09 low, correct?Franknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-3190163753849840692011-11-09T19:56:30.578-10:002011-11-09T19:56:30.578-10:00Well, my long term count chart shows how 2008 unfo...Well, my long term count chart shows how 2008 unfolded, and what each wave did. Click the "big picture" link in the above article. Beyond that, don't have much time to go into detail on 2008 right now. Let me know if that's what you were looking for.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-85940163306355434802011-11-09T19:53:27.954-10:002011-11-09T19:53:27.954-10:00Hi Pretzel,
Any chance you can post the ew analys...Hi Pretzel,<br /><br />Any chance you can post the ew analysis for the 2007-2008 bear market for educational purpose? Thanks.Franknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-83726328637705986902011-11-09T19:52:53.910-10:002011-11-09T19:52:53.910-10:00Frank,
As always, nothing on this site is to be t...Frank,<br /><br />As always, nothing on this site is to be taken as trading advice!<br /><br />No guarantees yet, bully still has a few areas from which to produce a last minute stick-save. I'll try to zero in on those with tomorrow's update. <br /><br />As far as a setup goes, though, while nothing is ever guaranteed (as I said), THIS IS AS GOOD AS IT GETS. <br /><br />Hypothetically, theoretically, etc. Talk to your broker, he probably knows way more than I do. ;)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-15951180015554521952011-11-09T19:41:49.069-10:002011-11-09T19:41:49.069-10:00Pretzel,
Since you are so confident about your co...Pretzel,<br /><br />Since you are so confident about your count, I feel like I am too chicken because I only put out a dingy little position. I should load up on shorts bravely :-)Franknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-16973750177105451542011-11-09T19:40:08.375-10:002011-11-09T19:40:08.375-10:00Rock,
FWIW
Gotta tell you, everything is lining ...Rock,<br /><br />FWIW<br /><br />Gotta tell you, everything is lining up for a big decline across multiple TA spectrums. Elliott is in agreement with Hurst is in agreement with MA disciplines, etc.. Everything is lining up perfectly, and it is literally screaming "Wave 3!" to me.<br /><br />Obviously, do what makes you comfortable, though. Not offering you trading advice! Just my humble, purely theoretical, opinion.<br /><br />I'll go into more detail w/ tomorrow's update, along with some key levels.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-9253742768254808552011-11-09T19:26:58.568-10:002011-11-09T19:26:58.568-10:00or the bullish case...this is a C of 2. chances ar...or the bullish case...this is a C of 2. chances are just enough to keep me considering it.RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-20282342293009575642011-11-09T18:51:31.392-10:002011-11-09T18:51:31.392-10:00Pretz,
If it's affirming to you at all: I fo...Pretz,<br /><br />If it's affirming to you at all: I follow a subscription-based gold and currency blog so that I can keep up on those markets. <br /><br />It will remain unnamed, but the blog author / host routinely offers the opinion that E Wave theory and most TA analysis are 'worthless', which I take to mean: He's not able to employ either with any effectiveness and has blamed the tools themselves.<br /><br />His overall approach is no-nonsense, sound and very conservative. It works and produces sound and dependable returns. <br /><br />Yesterday though, his update offered that new highs for equities were likely, which he apparently deduced from simply looking at the trend channel that had formed on the daily S&P. <br /><br />His opinion (and I am not making this up) was that as long as we don't fall out of that trend channel, the S&P would rise for the next week or two. <br /><br />I found this to be wholly negligent and overly-simplified to the point of thinking: is this what your patronage is paying you for?<br /><br />I was kind of in disbelief. And of course it didn't change my own investment thesis nor question your counts.<br /><br />Anyway, apparently this individual might do well to check into your site from time to time to do some additional research and cross-checking of his conclusions.<br /><br />I'll be curious to read what his explanation for his call was last night, though I'm pretty sure it will be as simple as: The Italians did it.brianhuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13919393156588909718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-36539310508310608372011-11-09T17:58:28.988-10:002011-11-09T17:58:28.988-10:00No problem! Your work is worth about 1000 times t...No problem! Your work is worth about 1000 times the amount in the donation or at least it was to me today :) for others thinking about donating, it is ridiculously easy and quick. <br /><br />I'm new to EW and now I have a couple of EW books heading my way too. I've been using TA for about 8 years but I've always steered clear of EW... Not sure what changed this week for me but I guess I just woke up curious on Tuesday. I love learning new tools.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-65554183796807539312011-11-09T17:40:14.825-10:002011-11-09T17:40:14.825-10:00A quick shout-out to Jaymie for the donation: Tha...A quick shout-out to Jaymie for the donation: Thanks, Jaymie, very much appreciated! :)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74624467687903712712011-11-09T17:15:02.029-10:002011-11-09T17:15:02.029-10:00Also, thanks to everyone for the encouragement! G...Also, thanks to everyone for the encouragement! Good to hear after several challenging days of charting, that's fer sure. :)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-90642024520279867012011-11-09T17:05:45.628-10:002011-11-09T17:05:45.628-10:00Re: News. I've said it many times before:
NE...Re: News. I've said it many times before:<br /><br />NEWS IS NOISE<br /><br />All news does is give a quick snapshot of market sentiment. That's it. As someone observed (Vulture?), the media can take the exact same event and spin it positive or negative. The only exception to this rule is black swan events.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-25056470960785209472011-11-09T15:26:18.536-10:002011-11-09T15:26:18.536-10:00Frank, you did great! I'm promoting you from ...Frank, you did great! I'm promoting you from "Disgruntled Bull" to "Bear Cub."<br /><br />I haven't read through everyone's comments yet, I'll get there in a minute... just looking at charts. Check out the Apple chart from the weekend article. The green alternate count nailed the top within 25 CENTS. That's .0063%! Amazes me sometimes. This is the stuff I want to show people who say Elliott Wave is all nonsense. Dunno what the statistical probability of nailing a top within a few thousandths of a percentage point is, but seems like they would be astronomically low.<br /><br />I haven't updated the chart at all, other than the price action is filled in now: <br /><br />http://www.screencast.com/t/aHeZkBOtnk6LPretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-84839069219025270142011-11-09T15:13:16.762-10:002011-11-09T15:13:16.762-10:00Pretz, how glad I am to have had your charts to ke...Pretz, how glad I am to have had your charts to keep me strong over the past week. Don't let the unloving attention from the fans and the ladies outside Home Depot get to you. You just keep doing what you're amazing at=)<br /><br />Always your fan!DanCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-85671615558738377962011-11-09T15:05:56.545-10:002011-11-09T15:05:56.545-10:00Pretzel,
What about me? They say the bulls make ...Pretzel,<br /><br />What about me? They say the bulls make the best bears... I have been bullish all along until this morning and am making a perfect bear now :-)Franknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-26080648068861309672011-11-09T15:02:16.276-10:002011-11-09T15:02:16.276-10:00BTB, ty for the donation! Much appreciated. :)
A...BTB, ty for the donation! Much appreciated. :)<br /><br />And, Brian, definitely appreciate the plug. ;)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-25230263277002336922011-11-09T14:59:13.305-10:002011-11-09T14:59:13.305-10:00Ahh...
You guys did much better fighting off bull...Ahh...<br /><br />You guys did much better fighting off bully in my absense today! Jaco, I'm promoting you to Private First Class. :)<br /><br />Remember last week when I said it took the bears 2 days to move x number of points and it took the bulls 5 days to get 62% of that back? It just took the bears ONE day to blow through 5 days of bully's firepower here. Not a good sign for the market.<br /><br />Haven't really looked at charts much, but this definitely looks, and feels, like the start of the move we've been waiting for. This is how a 3rd wave feels... relentless grinding lower, and virtually nothing in the way of bounces. <br /><br />Another day like this, and watch how many people start to jump on the "top's in" bandwagon, just like after the 27th... eventually, that'll be the cue for the market to confuse them all again, like it did last week.<br /><br />Man, it feels good to have been on the right side of this. Gets hard when you guys are all "counting" on me, and clearly in pain. One day, I'm bound to mess it up (even if I don't, it's not an exact science to begin with!)... so I hope you'll forgive me when that happens. :)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-37199441114917303062011-11-09T14:42:56.834-10:002011-11-09T14:42:56.834-10:00Wrapping up a few things at Toulouse, a few though...Wrapping up a few things at Toulouse, a few thoughts that have run through my mind since the market close. <br /><br />Would be curious to hear other's impressions. And I am particularly excited to see Pretz's updated counts. <br /><br />I thought today was extremely encouraging for the case that price discovery will head toward below 1,200 soon.<br /><br />Today's stop in the waterfall move at 1,230 was particularly well-timed.<br /><br />If I am a sentient entity called 'the market' and I am dastardly and scheming want to take the market down well below the 50 dma and then so, I would do that by forceful steps that in excruciating succession breaks the will and confidence of those holding long.<br /><br />First stop was 1,240. Broke through that like a hot knife through butter after landing hard jabs and body blows to all meaningful bull attempts prior to 1 pm. <br /><br />And when the push through 1,240 came it was OBVIOUS to all participants that there is no trying to stop it. <br /><br />Next is 1,220 and then the 50 dma just below 1,200.<br /><br />By stopping just below 1,230 today, bears have kept their firepower saved for when the 1,220 and 1,200 tests will come. Barring some bull miracle, everyone knows those tests are coming.<br /><br />And by slowing the downward advance today, the bears get to paint nice big red successive candlesticks on the daily chart.<br /><br />Stopping today at 1,230 also allows those holding long to get scared overnight, see their margin calls, pick what to sell. And for the tension to successively build. <br /><br />And when the break of 1,220 and then 1,200 comes, it tells longs that Mr. Bear is for real (this time) and there is no use standing in his way. <br /><br />The long reds candlestick breaking through resistance on the daily and sixty minute chart can pile up and paint an undeniable picture.<br /><br />I don't want to feel over-confident, but it's now REALLY hard to imagine a set of circumstances or some news event that stops this. <br /><br />The Italy bond story has the feeling of being a back breaker for the equity markets. It's worse than Greece, insofar as it starkly exposes the entire Euro edifice for being an unsustainable arrangement. It cannot possibly be maintained in it's current form.<br /><br />And we haven't even heard from Spain, Portugal and Ireland yet. And whatever other sovereign debts will need to be written down. Which if that happens in Euros, you can probably kiss the entire currency goodbye. Or it will necessitate a break up. <br /><br />Either way for equity markets, none of this is good. At all. And crashing investor sentiment seems certain to follow.<br /><br />My thesis could be wrong, but this seems a particularly good start for the wave three bears here have been waiting for.brianhuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13919393156588909718noreply@blogger.com