tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post7335740109676159692..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: A Discussion of Trading Strategy, and the Rally's PotentialPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger180125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-82210210466429729912011-12-22T03:00:13.530-10:002011-12-22T03:00:13.530-10:00Update's posted, let's continue discussion...Update's posted, let's continue discussion on that thread.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-52933685198496985432011-12-22T02:36:24.309-10:002011-12-22T02:36:24.309-10:00This evening or tomorrow morning I will have a mor...This evening or tomorrow morning I will have a more clear ideaPaolohttp://trend-borsa.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-22509794696657725342011-12-22T02:00:50.165-10:002011-12-22T02:00:50.165-10:00Only if the bullish count is playing out. Other i...Only if the bullish count is playing out. Other indicators suggest a top might form today around 1250-55Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-89306333730392963192011-12-22T01:56:11.245-10:002011-12-22T01:56:11.245-10:00..but is it right that you expect another move to .....but is it right that you expect another move to 1270 now? and then probably the top..Rivertradenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-48366335206084518272011-12-22T01:51:02.239-10:002011-12-22T01:51:02.239-10:00There's a lot of stuff arguing we're close...There's a lot of stuff arguing we're close to a top here. Maybe not quite there, but the things I'm looking at are suggesting very soon. There's just a ridiculous amount of variables to try and process right now...Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-5047544199115630962011-12-22T01:48:43.192-10:002011-12-22T01:48:43.192-10:00@PL: that means..new high for y..and then adios am...@PL: that means..new high for y..and then adios amigo? :)Rivertradenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-62185541895158037332011-12-22T01:48:34.550-10:002011-12-22T01:48:34.550-10:00Thanks, Rolf. I hope so too. Not looking promisi...Thanks, Rolf. I hope so too. Not looking promising tonight, though. Got off to a late start, due to attempting to have a life outside of this blog today... not helping that the charts are a mess right now. Going back and forth over 15 different charts and time frames right now... ugh. Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-6544370133033672412011-12-22T01:45:42.250-10:002011-12-22T01:45:42.250-10:00PL, with the market hours you keep, you'd be b...PL, with the market hours you keep, you'd be better in a European time zone. Not quite the allure of Hawaii but at least Santa arrives here a few hours earlier :)<br /><br />I hope you manage to score some good Zzzzzz's over the holiday.RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-52537208340416121632011-12-22T01:17:20.848-10:002011-12-22T01:17:20.848-10:00B should be (x)B should be (x)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-62689913919223511202011-12-22T00:48:34.976-10:002011-12-22T00:48:34.976-10:00Covered at 1242. Covered at 1242. Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-14211231470541040782011-12-21T23:51:52.349-10:002011-12-21T23:51:52.349-10:00Just went short at 1243 ES.Just went short at 1243 ES.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-47771822524707841802011-12-21T23:39:26.333-10:002011-12-21T23:39:26.333-10:00Futures up right now -- but overall, the things I&...Futures up right now -- but overall, the things I'm looking at are suggesting the bulls will be running out of gas soon.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-30953683376414542092011-12-21T22:27:15.954-10:002011-12-21T22:27:15.954-10:00what would be an example of a put/call spread, i&#...what would be an example of a put/call spread, i've used vertical spreads before (buy call/sell call), also in the money of out of the money options, and how long before expiration do you decide to rolloverMnykn9noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-27165072084922647772011-12-21T21:30:01.163-10:002011-12-21T21:30:01.163-10:00A quick shout out to Ronald for his donation!
Man...A quick shout out to Ronald for his donation!<br /><br />Many thanks, Ronald. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-42958418762807350362011-12-21T21:29:09.283-10:002011-12-21T21:29:09.283-10:00I am behind the eight ball tonight. I've been...I am behind the eight ball tonight. I've been dealing w/ personal stuff literally *non-stop* all day. <br /><br />The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-83583459440482623452011-12-21T19:07:27.026-10:002011-12-21T19:07:27.026-10:00Yesterday my beloved Oracle has disturbed Santa Ra...Yesterday my beloved Oracle has disturbed Santa Rally and now my Selling Indicator is saying: "please let's exit the market" It agrees with brianthurt, regardsPaolohttp://trend-borsa.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-26653496936069263412011-12-21T18:42:58.995-10:002011-12-21T18:42:58.995-10:00I'm gonna owe you :-)I'm gonna owe you :-)DustCloudnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-32511927795481357352011-12-21T18:39:44.129-10:002011-12-21T18:39:44.129-10:00Another 'Who's Who' list of hedge fund...Another 'Who's Who' list of hedge fund faves topping the WS Selling on Strength list. And with the SPY at the very top. <br /><br />Confirming what I've been thinking about the 'rally'. This is all about selling off inventory heading into 2012. <br /><br />I suspect we therefore get a HARD run down right after X-mas and just before the calendar turns over to 1/1. The Street doesn't want to START the New Year up here. It wants to sell out the year here, and then start the year from lower. <br /><br />http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.htmlbrianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-83383915914557562202011-12-21T17:10:44.983-10:002011-12-21T17:10:44.983-10:00The overall sector has been making a run this mont...The overall sector has been making a run this month.... Given the ratio's, about 65% of a stocks performance comes from its sector.BenedictArnoldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-60978967606208575302011-12-21T16:57:30.679-10:002011-12-21T16:57:30.679-10:00Interesting exercise.
Sector rotation out of Nasd...Interesting exercise.<br /><br />Sector rotation out of Nasdaq bespeaks an unhealthy market, but why can't it be a sector rotation into other parts of the SP500 and overall, still take the broader index higher for a little while?<br /><br />I'm also unconvinced that the minor wave 3 (in either the bearish or bullish chart) is necessarily complete today. I believe you're thinking the 123 completes Blue 2 in the bearish, and Blue d in the bullish count.<br /><br />Also, what about it being a 5-wave minor structure instead of a 3-wave minor structure, with more upside yet? Granted, if today completed the minor 3, that leaves very little room for a wave 4, so unlikely. But what if the 3 isn't complete?DustCloudnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-82046975728095991742011-12-21T15:15:55.089-10:002011-12-21T15:15:55.089-10:00Well, will risk showing amateurism in EW with this...Well, will risk showing amateurism in EW with this comment. I'll dare to predict the essence of PL's chart update tomorrow. What we saw today does not rule out any of the 2 counts. For the bearish count we saw and a-b-c pattern with to complete blue 2. Next target is for 3 below 1202.37 (1195?). For the alternate bulling count, today we completed d with tomorrow/friday action taking us to e at around 1210-1202. That is the are to lookout and take profits for either count and re-enter shorts if trading falls below 1200. NDX fell below resistance today which would rule out the alternate bullish count for now.<br /><br />Ok, let's see how much this comment gets butchered by the master.<br />For me I'm 1/2 of my shorts overnight (went in at 1238 and 1242). Got out of my Treasuries shorts today.BigOnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-31411478123138008922011-12-21T11:53:42.568-10:002011-12-21T11:53:42.568-10:00Agreed. Today's trading was a lot like many o...Agreed. Today's trading was a lot like many of the sessions leading up to the October 27th high at 1,292. <br /><br />There were multiple days of waterfall declines in the morning session, only to see buyers erase the downward move and end the day flat or slightly higher. Meaning the morning declines were giant bear traps followed by wrenching short squeezes. Which served to clear out all shorts on the ride up. <br /><br />I remember it clearly now: just when the morning session would make you think, alright, this is it. The top is near and we're going to reverse here, the afternoon session would come along and ratchet higher and take out all stops with it. Which only fueled the afternoon rally.<br /><br />I remember it being a very difficult time to get into a short position and feel like you could hold it. Because it WAS. <br /><br />Very much topping type market action. Lots of 'hanging man' and 'hammer' candlesticks on the daily chart at that time.<br /><br />The final blow off island top came about a week later, I'm pretty sure. brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-35670007297513996832011-12-21T11:36:12.731-10:002011-12-21T11:36:12.731-10:00Well, if the emerging pattern is to follow the sha...Well, if the emerging pattern is to follow the shape of 11/30 - 12/08, then expect another climb to tag the 200 DMA, then at least one big down day from there. So we should get a chance to short with good risk/reward shortly. And if it bounces back the next day like 12/09, then yet another chance to short.DustCloudnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-35840247094070930882011-12-21T11:19:17.153-10:002011-12-21T11:19:17.153-10:00It bounced off its 50 DMA and never looked back. L...It bounced off its 50 DMA and never looked back. Looks like the bulls wanted to move the pig to its 200 DMA. Looks like the shorts were squeezed from noon till close.<br /><br />In a day like this, with ORCL and housing, the price action was a total surprise to me. <br /><br />It pays to be agnostic.AFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-71609075456984293692011-12-21T11:09:11.845-10:002011-12-21T11:09:11.845-10:00It's quite the obvious upward channel that has...It's quite the obvious upward channel that has formed off the LOD at 1,230. Should be easy to trade tomorrow if the trend holds. brianhutnoreply@blogger.com