tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post7399481151014588526..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX, RUT, INDU Updates: No Material Change -- but Some New Discussion for BearsPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger308125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-15534981028788732102012-04-01T18:15:56.833-10:002012-04-01T18:15:56.833-10:00Thanks PL. I'd just like to respectfully emph...Thanks PL. I'd just like to respectfully emphasize on selling Calls that are far out of the money. Even if it is not a a black swan event, if you get a VIX spike that is big enough in one day and you sold Calls that are close to the strike price just right before the big spike, you could be Margin-called to the point of a forced liquidation that same day. This is even if it were not on expiration day. William Linoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-5569267871487944362012-04-01T18:06:32.739-10:002012-04-01T18:06:32.739-10:00Thanks DRG. Sorry for the delayed response. I ju...Thanks DRG. Sorry for the delayed response. I just saw your comment now. Yes, I am aware that VIX options is traded in the European Style. To me, it is one of the main advantages to trading VIX options.William Linoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-7207449822526586962012-04-01T18:02:19.423-10:002012-04-01T18:02:19.423-10:00Hi NJ268,
To handle a black swan event, I am sure...Hi NJ268,<br /><br />To handle a black swan event, I am sure there are many others on this board that can answer this question better than I can. How does anyone handle a black swan event...?<br /><br />I tried to write up some answers for you but I have deleted them three times already because you can never do enough to mitigate risks. I think the key is to know what you are trading, and do not be greedy by trading more than you can afford. Only make trades that will not leave you shirtless; or if you do, be ready to accept the risk.William Linoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-3299962421971170052012-04-01T17:56:12.547-10:002012-04-01T17:56:12.547-10:00Vix options are European style - so they can only ...Vix options are European style - so they can only be exercised on expiration, not before. Basically, you just have to hope VIX isn't spiking right on the expiry date. ________________________________Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-72715787016363384712012-04-01T16:12:09.380-10:002012-04-01T16:12:09.380-10:00Hi William
Thanks for sharing, I'm intrigued ...Hi William<br /><br />Thanks for sharing, I'm intrigued by your strategy, however, selling VIX calls naked can be very dangerous - I wonder how you'd handle those occasional spikes?NJ268noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-44258609334655945002012-03-29T17:26:29.812-10:002012-03-29T17:26:29.812-10:00WL are you familiar with what the term european st...WL are you familiar with what the term european style options means? All cash settled options in US markets are styled as european which means the contract can never be assigned early only on expiration and the front month short cannot be covered by a long back month position as you cannot call the front month until expiration. Be careful thinking you can cover a short by being long the futher out month.DirtnRockGuy62noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-9518212672646356702012-03-29T17:23:16.716-10:002012-03-29T17:23:16.716-10:00I run the short butterfly on a monthly basis, marg...I run the short butterfly on a monthly basis, margin requirements for the number of contracts I put on is about 900 to 1200, trade pays typically 3 to 400 per month or about a 30 percent return.DirtnRockGuy62noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-34507017531327348152012-03-29T17:21:23.912-10:002012-03-29T17:21:23.912-10:00Put an update to my 60 min RUT chart up in respons...Put an update to my 60 min RUT chart up in response to some others discussing the same issue. Bought it on the dip again today, so long at bottom of the 3 down and the 5 down of the decline, looking for a .68 retrace from bottom of 5 down and will exit at that point or the top of the channel if it looks strong and Macro news is decent.DirtnRockGuy62noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-86436717308736666722012-03-29T03:58:18.019-10:002012-03-29T03:58:18.019-10:00It is about $36k. Keep in mind that the margin ch...It is about $36k. Keep in mind that the margin changes depending on how close the VIX quote comes to your Contract's strike.William Linoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-50496583266041524592012-03-29T03:27:58.857-10:002012-03-29T03:27:58.857-10:00Yeah sorry, I got confused. I provided a Gann tool...Yeah sorry, I got confused. I provided a Gann tool link. You asked for an EWave tool link.Dust Devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-38584166741422891802012-03-29T03:04:32.544-10:002012-03-29T03:04:32.544-10:00Now that's entertainment...............NICE, V...Now that's entertainment...............NICE, VERY NICE. I think I need to immerse myself within the Ichi Moku school prognostication. Much obliged...very revealing graph.Bob_Enoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-87285588986242318452012-03-29T03:01:40.608-10:002012-03-29T03:01:40.608-10:00 Thank you PL, Dust (will look that link, thx) I t... Thank you PL, Dust (will look that link, thx) I thought so.. well student then for now, will try post less, not to disturb too much *back to the frontraw of the class room watching :-)Yogi69noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74258090466042531262012-03-29T03:00:02.916-10:002012-03-29T03:00:02.916-10:00PL...did some surface scratching last night and ca...PL...did some surface scratching last night and came up with the following on CVX. If those toothpicks can keep them lids open awhile longer...can you cast your eyes over the numbers?Bob_Enoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-70307055480761895032012-03-29T02:55:45.803-10:002012-03-29T02:55:45.803-10:00From the appearance of that chart....you are a roc...From the appearance of that chart....you are a rocket scientist (Werhner Von Braun) using the cover of a family physician. Does Ichi Moku offer you projections of price or time, or is it more a trend following/trend changing indicator?Bob_Enoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-37536127484377514772012-03-29T02:46:35.726-10:002012-03-29T02:46:35.726-10:00Hi Yogi, Somebody here provided a link to this too...Hi Yogi, Somebody here provided a link to this tool a couple of weeks ago. I haven't tried it. Take a look and let us know. http://www.gannalyst.com/Gannalyst_Professional/Gannalyst_SquareTools_SO9S.shtmlDust Devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-78635759141403898112012-03-29T02:44:00.064-10:002012-03-29T02:44:00.064-10:00Hi Yogi -- EW is faaaaaar too complicated for a co...Hi Yogi -- EW is faaaaaar too complicated for a computer to manage. There are several charting programs that will try, such as katzo's software and another called "Motive Wave" -- but quite frankly, the programs suck at getting the labels right most of the time.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-47318788224727570902012-03-29T02:37:42.760-10:002012-03-29T02:37:42.760-10:00Can somebody help me out to confirm if there are a...Can somebody help me out to confirm if there are any tools to indicate EW's? Or all of you are doing them by hand? No, dont get my question wrong. I respect there is a lot of knowlage inside and PL and posting comunity is proofing it on a daily base. I already ordered some books, to progress deeper.<br /><br />I am using freestockcharts.com and forexpros recently but fail to find anything apart from Elliott Wave Oscillator, but there is no counter or is it?<br />Thank you for a hint.Yogi69noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-30981758310455959982012-03-29T02:33:33.742-10:002012-03-29T02:33:33.742-10:00That is an excellent trade, William. If you can d...That is an excellent trade, William. If you can do this every day, that would be an excellent living. I agree 100% with taking the 55% return in 1 day, vs the risk of holding for another 30 days to make the other 45%. <br /><br />Thank you for your detailed reply. I really appreciate it.Authentic1noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-81809575984851150082012-03-29T02:32:50.494-10:002012-03-29T02:32:50.494-10:00Yes, on these types of pivots, the closes are more...Yes, on these types of pivots, the closes are more important. Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-88532735730428913292012-03-29T02:31:25.537-10:002012-03-29T02:31:25.537-10:00Hi Arnie, glad to see ya! Nice post. :)Hi Arnie, glad to see ya! Nice post. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-24464327964281583252012-03-29T02:30:19.796-10:002012-03-29T02:30:19.796-10:00Okay, update's posted, so let's continue d...Okay, update's posted, so let's continue discussion over there. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-89498992716201058042012-03-29T02:23:01.405-10:002012-03-29T02:23:01.405-10:00Barry has done everything the Bankers wanted, Mitt...Barry has done everything the Bankers wanted, Mitt will do everything they want...liabilities will be socialized and assets (and profits) will be privatized...the transfer of public assets and wealth to private hands will continue until we are buying our "everything" from a multinational...It doesn't really matter who "wins", cuz it isn't us, and it isn't our children. I'm pretty sure that members of Congress and their patrons will be alright though...Nostradumassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-38154862000477139032012-03-29T02:11:56.166-10:002012-03-29T02:11:56.166-10:00It is excellent that you read GS talk perfectly.It is excellent that you read GS talk perfectly.Ray_1noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-20749810639948451452012-03-29T01:57:09.299-10:002012-03-29T01:57:09.299-10:00I was aware that gas prices were heavily taxed in ...I was aware that gas prices were heavily taxed in the EU, but I didn't realize how high...<br />(from various sources)<br />France: ~70%<br />...the rest (too many to list) roughly 50 to 65%.Nostradumassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74262279504708272842012-03-29T01:56:42.819-10:002012-03-29T01:56:42.819-10:00Silver in 1h/chart forming a Bullish Gravestone Do...Silver in 1h/chart forming a Bullish Gravestone Doji fals signal? Dont know how this wave now would be counted in EW. Waiting for confirmation to go long - short term.Yogi69noreply@blogger.com