tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post7597670420492951744..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: A Tough CallPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger192125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-87562277072851826572012-02-24T02:23:44.848-10:002012-02-24T02:23:44.848-10:00Okay, update's posted, let's continue disc...Okay, update's posted, let's continue discussion over there. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-4438816513344952162012-02-24T02:20:03.550-10:002012-02-24T02:20:03.550-10:00the gap line, 60 to 62, i am not enjoying the timi...the gap line, 60 to 62, i am not enjoying the timing element here, should have started by now, careful, 67.75 should limit any up move, above than and dunnokatzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-44190707839236337512012-02-24T02:19:11.758-10:002012-02-24T02:19:11.758-10:00I saw that indicator firing off.I saw that indicator firing off.jbg1911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-75090197081201261892012-02-24T01:35:52.120-10:002012-02-24T01:35:52.120-10:00katzo, do you have a target for expected decline? ...katzo, do you have a target for expected decline? Thanks!Randallhttp://profile.yahoo.com/S7GX374TOVPSSITDC5NK4WOCWYnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-16055867182845457432012-02-24T01:01:23.792-10:002012-02-24T01:01:23.792-10:00yup, and a timely post belowyup, and a timely post belowkatzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-11894366853696230622012-02-24T00:49:05.002-10:002012-02-24T00:49:05.002-10:00Funny you mention Earl -- I did an IT chart tonigh...Funny you mention Earl -- I did an IT chart tonight for tomorrow's article, which suggests a correction is due.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-59687484917407630752012-02-24T00:43:28.468-10:002012-02-24T00:43:28.468-10:00short es 67short es 67katzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-72842068351834692662012-02-24T00:27:37.628-10:002012-02-24T00:27:37.628-10:00Oil should be at a top now, at least a IT top. VIX...Oil should be at a top now, at least a IT top. VIX and Dollar should have bottomed.katzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-42064881825983155722012-02-24T00:06:00.611-10:002012-02-24T00:06:00.611-10:00ES 1369 is my tgt for shorting.ES 1369 is my tgt for shorting.katzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-377206681272353732012-02-23T23:51:37.631-10:002012-02-23T23:51:37.631-10:00AAPL powers up in o/n action. Needs to break the T...AAPL powers up in o/n action. Needs to break the TL before is is a viable short, my short yesterday was too early. Shoulda followed my own advise on AAPL, but have a small loss on it did not let it get too far. Those ghose spikes to 509 are now gone, vanished.<br /><br />http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/0c612266-e9e8-4bcd-a963-1bb9d0d672e9<br /><br />The mrkt jumped my upper TL of my channel set at 136o ES at the beginning of Globex and kept on going, but the candle structure looks very weak at this top. When mrkt does stuff I don't understand I go looking for a megaphone and found it on the 6o. Also on the 6o, this is an EW4 at the twin pipes and now we are forming the EW5. I will short soon but want to watch it a bit more.katzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-22486849528933164632012-02-23T22:05:52.893-10:002012-02-23T22:05:52.893-10:00Well, I agree it's certainly hard to believe t...Well, I agree it's certainly hard to believe this market will correct ever again -- but even these types of moves eventually require some degree of mean revision. I don't know if it will happen here; this market hasn't behaved right at all, so who TF knows. But this is a good spot for it to do so... so *if* it's going to happen, now's a good time. Otherwise, bears will be beaten back again and have to wait for the next reasonable defense level.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-35569384215456781902012-02-23T22:00:56.282-10:002012-02-23T22:00:56.282-10:00I'm taking a crach at some shorts here at ES 1...I'm taking a crach at some shorts here at ES 1366.50. Stop's are pretty straightforward, and the alternate count isn't dead -- so WTF. Good risk/reward equation.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-55613379391992061642012-02-23T21:30:42.916-10:002012-02-23T21:30:42.916-10:00ty for checking re: Stockchartsty for checking re: StockchartsPretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-58233063618412287862012-02-23T21:28:24.781-10:002012-02-23T21:28:24.781-10:00Sorry, brian, I was afk. Stockcharts will only gi...Sorry, brian, I was afk. Stockcharts will only give 60 minute data (for intraday) going back past the last few months. No 5-minute data -- I wish they did.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-60490346397800091612012-02-23T21:18:37.944-10:002012-02-23T21:18:37.944-10:00I asked Zim about that as well. StockCharts can&#...I asked Zim about that as well. StockCharts can't do it. Zimmer did that himself somehow. He's got some pretty darned good skills with his own "display" tools but I don't know how he does it. As far as I know he's still learning... experimenting might be a better word. <br /><br />As far as I know Zim doesn't really try to predict so much as just post a chart (like many of like to do from time to time), where a nice trend line or two might point to one potential target... that type of thing. jbg1911 asked about posting Zimmer's "animated" chart here. I don't know what you think of that either Pretzel, so I didn't post the link either. It's very cool though. But I know Zim fairly well and he's a real easy going dude, so if 'you' wanted to grab it and post it just to let your viewers see a real interesting animated chart, I'd say go right ahead.Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-42523092645426347852012-02-23T19:16:21.701-10:002012-02-23T19:16:21.701-10:00I think since this bull run has been illogical for...I think since this bull run has been illogical for the most part, no correction to speak of, the ending might be the same. I expect some crazy news event but that is too easy. As you say the bulls are doing as they please so I don't see a slow gradual drop. SOmething crazy will happen but when??????? Maybe something along the lines of what happened to gold today.<br />After hours market tonight, BORING!!!!!RockRhttp://profile.yahoo.com/_SJ7XMQ7LYOTRCGGZOG222ITZIMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-69729577752728406472012-02-23T18:35:08.752-10:002012-02-23T18:35:08.752-10:00Everyone keeps talking about the final top of wave...Everyone keeps talking about the final top of wave five being right around the corner. Ending diagonals, the conclusion of wave 5, a correction is due, etc. <br /><br />I'm not arguing against it, but we are in an era of unprecedented artificial liquidity injections. Which would blow up<br />what the 'normal' cycle might otherwise be. With another unlimited LRTO coming in just a few days, it just doesn't seem particularly likely that the liquidity part of the equation for this run up has reached exhaustion. <br /><br />Today we just saw what an effortless 10 point instant run up AGAIN. Buyers seem to just blow through any resistance when they feel like it. Then very tellingly hold a three point range for the rest of the day. At no point were sellers allowed an even<br />three point move for the last six hours of trading. <br /><br />I just don't see any evidence that those on the bid side of this market aren't in complete control of where we are going.brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-55468190851069247752012-02-23T18:30:44.701-10:002012-02-23T18:30:44.701-10:00 I was doing that at first for two reasons. One is... I was doing that at first for two reasons. One is that I'm a serial obsessive and I learn through immersion. The other is that I had only the vaguest idea how to plan a trade -- still do for that matter, but I dare hope I'm beginning to see some faint outlines emerging through the fog. <br /><br />There are three problems with that approach as I see it though. One is that unless you're trading from a 100k+ account, the <br />amount of money you can hope to make from a single trade doesn't pay you<br /> very well for that kind of investment in time. Doing inverse or leveraged long ETFs you're looking at staying in a trade anywhere from a couple of days to a couple of weeks. They're much too blunt an instrument for day trading and that's a long time to spend watching the ticker for a few hundred bucks if you're lucky.<br /><br />Another is, let's face it, that's addictive behavior and one wants to be vigilant about that. But most importantly I think, the people I've been studying who've been successful in this business -- and it is a business and should be treated as such -- are pretty universally in saying that managing risk is more important than being right. You gotta play the odds and the odds say you're going to be wrong some of the time, maybe a lot of the time.<br /><br />So to me the first and most important decision you make when entering a trade is how much money you're willing to lose on it. I back out a position size from there and set my stop the minute I enter an order, then I walk away. From there I'll trail the market and move it tighter if things go my way, but never looser. I check the price action a couple of times a day but I do have a day job, so I can't possibly watch the charts closely enough not to have a stop order set and I've finally gotten over obsessing about it to the point that I think I have to anyway. If I don't win a trade, there will be another along soon enough. The trick is to stay in the game long enough to win a few.CalDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-69932026205178338172012-02-23T18:25:59.778-10:002012-02-23T18:25:59.778-10:00Hey Pretz, quick question: will Stockcharts.com g...Hey Pretz, quick question: will Stockcharts.com give me intraday historical charts going back the past couple years? Specifically the five minute charts for each trading day? I'd like to be able to look at the intraday price action of previous market run ups as well<br />as the big waterfall decline days. <br /><br />Thanks in advance.brianhutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-11566692243459685692012-02-23T17:45:08.222-10:002012-02-23T17:45:08.222-10:00NDX ST chart sure looks like an ass-ending triangl...NDX ST chart sure looks like an ass-ending triangle. Usually bullish.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-2329110737949585422012-02-23T17:35:01.569-10:002012-02-23T17:35:01.569-10:00lol -- that's why they pay me the big bucks. ...lol -- that's why they pay me the big bucks. Or They should, anyway. Anybody have Their number? :D<br /><br />I do wish, though, that I could figure out how to get Stockcharts to overlay two different time frames like that. There's times I've wanted to do that.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-54534500342158980452012-02-23T17:33:42.739-10:002012-02-23T17:33:42.739-10:00That would be a riot, J.B-G!That would be a riot, J.B-G!Dust Devilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-76348172412332662022012-02-23T17:17:15.271-10:002012-02-23T17:17:15.271-10:00 I'll save it for the other newbs. It'll i... I'll save it for the other newbs. It'll impress them lol...I'm having flashbacks to when I was 16..."But Daaaad...ya gotta check out this cool car...Its got like headlights that kinda work, and an engine, and everything.jbg1911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-92107006425500491502012-02-23T17:11:10.890-10:002012-02-23T17:11:10.890-10:00The correlation to the 1-minute/60 minute complete...The correlation to the 1-minute/60 minute completely fell apart with today's action, though -- so while the chart looked cool, it wasn't very predictive. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-88462608824531704582012-02-23T17:10:15.695-10:002012-02-23T17:10:15.695-10:00 Okey Dokey....Here's Zim's chart posted o... Okey Dokey....Here's Zim's chart posted on AR's blog...Freaky fractal alert...<br /><br />http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/02/spxanalog022212.pngjbg1911noreply@blogger.com