tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post7769155586847948899..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX, RUT, Apple, and Beard Updates: Why I'm Not in the Same Camp as Most Wavers Right NowPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger254125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-67716989870724998122012-04-16T23:46:53.877-10:002012-04-16T23:46:53.877-10:00Update's posted.Update's posted.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-23231981686007849502012-04-16T23:08:08.093-10:002012-04-16T23:08:08.093-10:00 AAPL continues it decent, tgts 576, then maybe 53... AAPL continues it decent, tgts 576, then maybe 536. Short off the top doing well.<br /><br />http://screencast.com/t/x46LyySOz55S<br /><br />ES a bit of a conundrum. It seems to like testing the 71-2 area.katzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-53539514725004900872012-04-16T22:56:39.665-10:002012-04-16T22:56:39.665-10:00 Yes, I wish it was that easy but it is not. Yes, I wish it was that easy but it is not.katzo7noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-12515382436872011442012-04-16T21:53:16.585-10:002012-04-16T21:53:16.585-10:00Max, you'll just have to compare it to my coun...Max, you'll just have to compare it to my count for tomorrow's article. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-86151056870657846092012-04-16T21:48:28.160-10:002012-04-16T21:48:28.160-10:00Hi, Arnie, thanks for that. :)Hi, Arnie, thanks for that. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-72365242566285855602012-04-16T21:46:49.147-10:002012-04-16T21:46:49.147-10:00Hi Aaron, welcome! I tend to favor the idea that ...Hi Aaron, welcome! I tend to favor the idea that 1422 was a more significant top, though I'm still a bit undecided until I see some key levels broken by da bears. In either case, I do still favor the view that the market needs to make a new low to complete this wave. Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-21659582679038178862012-04-16T21:44:10.992-10:002012-04-16T21:44:10.992-10:00Dollar's flirting with completing a head and s...Dollar's flirting with completing a head and shoulders pattern, btw. Gonna see how it does with the previous low at .670, but might short it again.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-62676517254399018202012-04-16T21:42:19.872-10:002012-04-16T21:42:19.872-10:00Covered DX shorts from .920 at .720. :)Covered DX shorts from .920 at .720. :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-75701005823183302502012-04-16T21:06:33.308-10:002012-04-16T21:06:33.308-10:00So far, 950 contained it, and it's backtesting...So far, 950 contained it, and it's backtesting the old downtrend line. If that fails, it might have trouble.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-35792095172113717362012-04-16T21:05:12.999-10:002012-04-16T21:05:12.999-10:00No, I meant .950ish. I think it was trading aroun...No, I meant .950ish. I think it was trading around .870 when I mentioned it, but I fully expected it would test that 950ish level. I suppose "now" was a bit misleading -- "soon" probably would have been better.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-56312163886459947732012-04-16T20:02:17.713-10:002012-04-16T20:02:17.713-10:00Time for kip. DX is up, EUR is down, ES is flat (...Time for kip. DX is up, EUR is down, ES is flat (all since markets closed). Hopefully we'll get a gap down. My count below makes me uneasy about holding my puts for too much longer. Maybe Jason's update will change my mind?Max Mallanhttp://twitter.com/MadMaxMallannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-58556640325034020602012-04-16T19:45:04.594-10:002012-04-16T19:45:04.594-10:00Referring to DX? It hasn't been near that for...Referring to DX? It hasn't been near that for 12 hours...Max Mallanhttp://twitter.com/MadMaxMallannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-71448438522577065212012-04-16T19:05:24.961-10:002012-04-16T19:05:24.961-10:00I know just enough about music to appreciate this:...I know just enough about music to appreciate this:<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdxkVQy7QLM Max Mallanhttp://twitter.com/MadMaxMallannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-40966076720491550102012-04-16T18:49:01.297-10:002012-04-16T18:49:01.297-10:00FYI Jason has the 1422 top as a C wave, and the de...FYI Jason has the 1422 top as a C wave, and the decline as (so far) an impulsive. Meaning no new highs for quite some time.Max Mallanhttp://twitter.com/MadMaxMallannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-14668682024863257622012-04-16T18:47:36.390-10:002012-04-16T18:47:36.390-10:00Hi PL new to your site, but I am learning wave cou...Hi PL new to your site, but I am learning wave counts. Bigger picture: Major Wave 3 ended as and extended wave to 1422. We are now in Major 4 which tends to retrace to the area of the previous 4th subwave. This means the 1340 area. A 0.382 retracement of the move from 1202 to 1422 would give around 1337-1338. Fib retracements of the other moves (October low 1070 to 1422) and November 1159 to 1422) line up in the 1340 area.<br />I agree with your blue count above.. I think we agree that a move below 1357 has to happen before a meaningful move to the upside can happen (i.e. start of Major 5th wave). This should come near the 1340 level.<br /><br />A break of the declining trend line would probably usher in the next upwave.<br /><br />Any thoughts?<br /><br />Aaronstemphosnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-81739330438491892192012-04-16T18:46:33.868-10:002012-04-16T18:46:33.868-10:00Ugh - hopefully this will work betterUgh - hopefully this will work betterMax Mallanhttp://twitter.com/MadMaxMallannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-1571444729357440592012-04-16T18:34:06.139-10:002012-04-16T18:34:06.139-10:00I refuse to place any money on Apple, short or lon...I refuse to place any money on Apple, short or long, so take this with a grain of salt:<br /><br />I'm not much of a fundamentals guy, but p/e alone doesn't mean much to me. Just because it has the lowest P/E doesn't mean it is the best fundamentals. IMO, of all the ones you listed it is the least likely to have large growth and the most likely to be effected by an economic cyclical down turn.Google has leaps and bounds of market share it can make up in mobile devices and tablets, Apple pretty much can't do any better. People are always going to watch movies at home, though I have Netflix and I keep asking myself why I am still paying for it... Amazon will of course face cyclical stresses, but not everything it sells is ungodly expensive (I'd guess its much better position to ride out the storm), and from what I understand they're doing pretty well with this whole cloud computing nonsense.What does Apple have? iPad Gen4x? iPhone 5Z? Eventually people are going to get tired of spending ungodly amounts of money to have the newest Apple products. I think investors realized that. If investors truly thought Apple was worth a PE of 20, with Google, it would BE THERE, not climbing... and climbing... and climbing...I could be wrong, but what I suspect is that Apple's stock price is just a trend, like it's smartphone market share. Smart traders are simply looking to ride the wave and flip.Max Mallanhttp://twitter.com/MadMaxMallannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-50075314481702613112012-04-16T18:33:05.369-10:002012-04-16T18:33:05.369-10:00Don't believe you really missed much FB and ha...Don't believe you really missed much FB and having cultural deficits can be a good thing ; )KB03noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-40603242778103033932012-04-16T18:23:18.451-10:002012-04-16T18:23:18.451-10:00PL, sorry haven't been much around here, excep...PL, sorry haven't been much around here, except for the occasional post, due to busy (family) life as well some shift in focus to individual stocks with some easier recognizable EWT/trading patterns (ok, I admit I am taking the path of least resistance ;-) lol), but of course always reading your awesome daily updates.<br /><br />That said, I just finished reading the EWT principle book by F and P, and must say I am awestruck by the pure beauty of EWT, as well as severely confused by all the different patterns, which in turn make me appreciate your level of detail and knowledge of EWT even more. Ok, enough feathers up your ass ;-) One thing of the book that struck me as "holy peeeep, that's soooo what we are experiencing now, lets pull up one of PL's big-count charts and... hell yeah, he's got this whole run up of the october low's labeled as a B-wave too".<br /><br />Why is that B-wave "thingy" so important, others may ask!? Well, on page 81 (Chapter 2) the "wave personality" of each wave is explained and on this page, the B wave is described: "the are phonies, sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expression of dump institutional complacency (or both). Often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, often unconfirmed by other averages, rarely technically strong, give the technical analyst a "there is something wrong with this market" feeling. X-waves (and D-waves) have the same feeling." <br /><br />F and P the continue to quote Robert Rhea who describes (in 1934! yes my friends 19 f-ing 34!!!) the emotional climate of the upward correction of 1930 within the 1929-1932 A-B-C zigazg: <br /><br /> .... many observers took it to be a bull market signal. I can remember having shorted stocks early in December, 1929, after having completed a satisfactory short position in October. When the slow but steady advance of January and Febraury [1930] carried above the previous high, I became panicky and covered for a considerable loss. ....I forgot that the rally might normally be expected to retrace possibly 66 percent or more of the 1929 downswing. Nearly everyone was proclaiming a new bull market. Services were extremely bullish, and the upside volume was running higher than at the peak in 1929.<br /><br />Moral of my grown-out-of-proportion post:<br /><br />1) PL has this run up as a B-wave.<br />2) given the uncanny accurate description by F and P of the B-wave's feeling; I'd say this is indeed a B-wave<br /> a) lots of complacency (just look at the put-call ratio, which is still rather bullish IMHO)<br /> b) AAPL, AAPL, AAPL. one stock focused market<br /> c) Breadth of market is best described as so, so (e.g. DJT was already lagging when SPX etc was still rallying, same goes for several other markets... e.g. "rotten core"<br /> d) run-up purely liquidity driven: this is wroooong, no real sound fundamentals<br />3) Rhea's description, and even timeframe/timeline is exactly (i mean even month-to-month) what we're experiencing now! Deja vu all over??? Histroy has a tendency to repeat it self, and investors of today are psychologically exactly the same as those in the '30s. We may have more technical tools to our disposal, but greed and fear are still 100% the same. So the outcomes will be the same (or otherwise EWT would have been invalidated a long time ago).<br /><br />I am sure, you and many others agree that this run-up looks like a B, smells like a B, tastes like a B! right!? Not saying that's all she ever wrote, we may indeed still experience wave IV with V to come. We'll see.soulsurferusanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-42975549905995646472012-04-16T18:20:57.949-10:002012-04-16T18:20:57.949-10:00This is my evenings work. First chart is just for...This is my evenings work. First chart is just for context. Second is the past two days.<br />Blue I-V is highest degree<br />Red 1-5, A-C is middle<br />Black lowest where I thought clarity was needed.<br /><br />I broke all fractals down to the black level. Bad news for bears: the lowest wave V is 1362.67. Good news: I am usually wrong.Max Mallanhttp://twitter.com/MadMaxMallannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-32679994835276034682012-04-16T18:16:27.358-10:002012-04-16T18:16:27.358-10:00This is my evenings work. First chart is just for...This is my evenings work. First chart is just for context. Second is the past two days.<br />Blue I-V is highest degree<br />Red 1-5, A-C is middle<br />Black lowest where I thought clarity was needed.<br /><br />I broke all fractals down to the black level. Bad news for bears: the lowest wave V is 1362.67. Good news: I am usually wrong.Max Mallanhttp://twitter.com/MadMaxMallannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-16397606796375318902012-04-16T18:14:43.424-10:002012-04-16T18:14:43.424-10:00great, looking forward to your view PL. thanks aga...great, looking forward to your view PL. thanks again for all the hard work.<br /><br /> still don't think i get the nested 1-2 thing that well. if anyone has a reference, let me know. we look like we might be getting them, but the wave overlaps bother me. guess its not really overlap because they are of different degree. but for a newbie like me, looks like wave 4 overlapping 1. but its really just a wave ii of a smaller degree retracing into the area of the larger degree first wave. sorry for the rambling, just trying to figure out this wave structure as it seems like it might be extremely pertinent right now. if they can overlap, it makes ew even more confusing than i thought! seems impossible to differentiat between nested 1-2's and a corrective wave structure.smileguy1noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-15083485958315739562012-04-16T18:08:20.953-10:002012-04-16T18:08:20.953-10:00Always kinda liked that song. Never saw the video...Always kinda liked that song. Never saw the video before -- just like the song says, in the 80's there was "music still on MTV." I boycotted MTV when "the Real World" came out in, what -- '89? Haven't watched it since -- which is why I've never seen the video, lol.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-65531517775084832842012-04-16T18:02:16.635-10:002012-04-16T18:02:16.635-10:00As much as AAPL looks parabolic, Apple is fundamen...As much as AAPL looks parabolic, Apple is fundamentally strong with a huge cash flow and PE ratio of 16.5. Compared to GOOG with PE of 20.3, NFLX with PE of 24 and AMZN with PE of 135. AAPL may be in a bubble--but the only one that is supported by strong fundamentals!<br /><br />I was long AAPL up until last Monday, and went short on Friday/today. Now I'm looking to go long again if it drops to the 50MA, around 568-575, at least for a quick bounce into earnings. Imho, AAPL is well positioned to beat earnings expectation, and most likely AAPL will test recent high of 644.t_winnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-40293542660798880652012-04-16T17:53:30.850-10:002012-04-16T17:53:30.850-10:00This is the moment of truth for the dollar now. I...This is the moment of truth for the dollar now. If it can't break out above 79.950ish, then it's probably on its way to a retest of the lows or worse. I counted that last wave as an extended fifth, and the rally made it back up to the assumed (2) of that fifth -- so now we'll find out if that was the final wave down or not.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.com