tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post7990000947542793989..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX Update: Will the Waterfall Crash Continue?PretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger125125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-59215720554689861182011-11-23T02:46:47.523-10:002011-11-23T02:46:47.523-10:00Yeah, and it took out a critical support level. I...Yeah, and it took out a critical support level. I'm amazed they've kept ES from crashing. Update's posted, so let's move future discussion to that thread. :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-88304965891986745322011-11-23T02:38:32.570-10:002011-11-23T02:38:32.570-10:00Morning, Eur at 1.3376, down almost 1%, that'...Morning, Eur at 1.3376, down almost 1%, that's a huge move!williamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-59575285014144335342011-11-23T02:32:36.752-10:002011-11-23T02:32:36.752-10:00I'm amazed "the they" have kept ES a...I'm amazed "the they" have kept ES as elevated as it is, with the EUR/USD knocking out critical support. PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-83543029719172708562011-11-23T00:54:26.852-10:002011-11-23T00:54:26.852-10:00And a quick shout-out to BTB for his second donati...And a quick shout-out to BTB for his second donation; many thanks! :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-51936035839908791232011-11-23T00:52:38.035-10:002011-11-23T00:52:38.035-10:00DanC- I can't find your comment about Disqus ...DanC- I can't find your comment about Disqus anywhere on the thread, but I received it in my email, so I assume you were having some kind of trouble w/ it. Seems to be working fine here.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-20853713011581072832011-11-23T00:51:28.802-10:002011-11-23T00:51:28.802-10:00Euro/dollar took out an important support level. ...Euro/dollar took out an important support level. ES back-tested the yellow trendchannel I posted and failed. <br /><br />So far, tonight's looking like a good night for bears.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-49100299307443776852011-11-22T23:54:51.174-10:002011-11-22T23:54:51.174-10:00ty, Rolf, appreciate the vote of confidence. :)
...ty, Rolf, appreciate the vote of confidence. :) <br /><br />And congrats to you for "knowing better." PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-39499824347947638932011-11-22T23:20:43.730-10:002011-11-22T23:20:43.730-10:00When I saw you were going to post something on &qu...When I saw you were going to post something on "money on the sidelines", I *knew* you'd write the exact opposite of the normal nonsense that's trotted out by the regular suspects. Good stuff, PL.RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-23556262208251869202011-11-22T23:03:09.964-10:002011-11-22T23:03:09.964-10:00ty- I was typing mine while you posted this, lol. ...ty- I was typing mine while you posted this, lol. Mine's a lot simpler, but the argument is the same.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-42089238990788260122011-11-22T22:57:37.877-10:002011-11-22T22:57:37.877-10:00Regarding "cash on the sidelines" (since...Regarding "cash on the sidelines" (since I've heard several readers mention it recently): <br /><br />This topic will become increasingly popular for undereducated analysts to talk and write about as the decline wears on. There is no such thing as "cash on the sidelines." Here's why:<br /><br />Let's imagine some fund manager is sitting on $200 million "cash on the sidelines." He decides to buy stocks with *every single cent* of that money. <br /><br />So is that money now "invested in the market"? <br /><br />Nope. Obviously, it went to the people he bought the stock from -- and now THEY have $200 million in "cash on the sidelines." There is always cash on the sidelines, and there always will be. It's a zero sum game.<br /><br />I heard this argument parrotted time and again by people *the whole way down* in 2008. It's a myth, and if you hear some analyst start talking about it, change the channel, 'cause they don't know enough to keep their jobs. You'd have think they'd have figured it out after '08.<br /><br />You'll also hear about corporate cash "on the sidelines." However, if you look at corporate balance sheets, their total cash after liabilites is a *negative* number. Mish, (who is apparently a blog reader, btw, since he posted one of my charts and an article blurb yesterday -- which I thought was cool since I've been reading him for years), put together a great tool to understand this graphically:<br /><br />http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/10/cash-cow-who-has-cash-who-has-debt-by.htmlPretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-76741886415780391912011-11-22T22:50:25.863-10:002011-11-22T22:50:25.863-10:00One of several Hussman comments on "money on ...One of several Hussman comments on "money on the sidelines":-<br /><br />"<br />The second fact is that as a result of more than a trillion dollars <br />of new issuance of Treasury securities with relatively short durations, <br />it is a tautology that there is a mountain of what is <br />mistakenly viewed as “cash on the sidelines” invested in these <br />securities. This mountain of “sideline cash” exists and must <br />continue to exist as long as these additional government securities <br />remain outstanding. It is an error to view outstanding debt securities <br />as if they are “liquidity” poised to “flow back into the stock market.” <br />The faith in that myth may very well spur some speculation in stocks, <br />but it is a belief that is utterly detached from reality. The mountain <br />of outstanding money market securities is the result of government debt <br />issuance that must be held by somebody until those securities <br />are retired. It is not spendable “liquidity” – it is a pile of IOUs <br />printed up as evidence of money that has already been <br />squandered. The analysts and financial news reporters who observe this <br />enormous swamp of short-term money market securities, and talk about <br />“cash on the sidelines” as if it is spendable in aggregate immediately reveal themselves to be unaware of the concept of equilibrium and of the nature of secondary markets (where there must be a buyer for every security sold, and a seller for every security bought).<br /><br />If<br /> you sell your stocks or bonds or money market securities, they don't <br />cease to exist. Somebody else has to purchase them. Somebody else has to<br /> hold them. As I've said numerous times, if Ricky wants to sell his <br />money market funds and buy stocks, then his money market fund has to <br />sell money market securities to Nicky, whose cash goes to Ricky, who <br />uses the cash to buy stocks from Mickey. In the end, the cash that was <br />held by Nicky is now held by Mickey. The money market securities that <br />were previously held by Ricky are now held by Nicky. And the stocks that<br /> were once held by Mickey are now held by Ricky. There is exactly as <br />much “money on the sidelines” after these transactions as there was <br />before. Money doesn't go into or out of the stock market – it goes <br />through it. Prices don't move because supply exceeds demand or demand <br />exceeds supply. In equilibrium, the two are identical because that's <br />exactly what a trade is. Prices move because the buyer is more eager than the seller, or vice versa."RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-31736248898316060222011-11-22T22:30:45.134-10:002011-11-22T22:30:45.134-10:00That would be the bullish alternate count. I'...That would be the bullish alternate count. I'll post an update of it with tomorrow's update -- but I'm still only giving it 15% odds. I'm going to say a bit about "money on the sidelines" but I'll post it at the top.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-68723836142070606932011-11-22T21:57:14.806-10:002011-11-22T21:57:14.806-10:00Hey Pretz did you just throw Disqus out the window...Hey Pretz did you just throw Disqus out the window?=DDanCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-3731721819797123642011-11-22T21:46:29.260-10:002011-11-22T21:46:29.260-10:00Hey PL,
Do you reckon the timing is right for som...Hey PL, <br />Do you reckon the timing is right for some kind of post-Thanksgiving rally? Just pondering what those sidelined desperate fund managers have up to their sleeves right now... DanCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-34346072480083727772011-11-22T21:44:46.618-10:002011-11-22T21:44:46.618-10:00The thesis of so-called US and China "de-coup...The thesis of so-called US and China "de-coupling" is looking shakier after y'days Q3 GDP revision down and now this China PMI.<br /><br />The "decoupling" proponents might cast their minds back to late-2007/early-2008 when "EM decoupling" was all the rage, and look where it got them then.RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-90601401184821413732011-11-22T20:57:27.839-10:002011-11-22T20:57:27.839-10:00great work! seems like today is the day.great work! seems like today is the day.vinod vnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-12944393283245996832011-11-22T19:21:35.978-10:002011-11-22T19:21:35.978-10:00Rock, this is NOT TRADING ADVICE,
but one of the ...Rock, this is NOT TRADING ADVICE,<br /><br />but one of the things I do during third wave declines is pick an entry point to get stopped INTO the trade. If I can watch the market, I'll protect that with a super-tight stop (out) at first -- and if I get whipsawed a couple times for a point or so each time (ES), and have to keep reentering, that's fine. <br /><br />When third waves get cooking, price points that are normally retested in a "usual" market don't get retested, the market just keeps dropping... so my tight stop, who-cares-about-whipsaws approach has always served me well in the past during 3rd waves, if I needed it (usually needed it because I got too fancy trying to pick bottoms, lol). When you finally get that "right" entry, it makes up for all the little whipsaws, 'cause the market drops 20,30,40 points from there and doesn't look back.<br /><br />And if you're wrong, you only take a tiny loss. You're not entering it as a swing trade, you're entering it to chase, so you have to be super careful not to let the trade get out of hand -- on the off chance that you just entered short 3 points from the bottom. <br /><br />Not advice of course, just one of the strategies I've used if I needed to.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-70018493301219720742011-11-22T18:58:38.078-10:002011-11-22T18:58:38.078-10:00ES trend channel breakdown in effect right now (se...ES trend channel breakdown in effect right now (see chart). If bulls can't rally back up into the channel, there's Big Trouble in Little Bullyville.<br /><br />Green- "INTERNET YELLING" made me laugh out loud.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-42945811774338005392011-11-22T18:46:35.696-10:002011-11-22T18:46:35.696-10:00Thanks, Rock, CO --
Sticking with that top call p...Thanks, Rock, CO --<br /><br />Sticking with that top call probably ranks as one of the three hardest calls I've ever made... between the "bullish triangle continuation" everyone else was calling for, and all the "amazing fixes!" to Europe's problems, and the sheer vagueness of the waveforms, and the fact that it just seemed like no other analyst was on the same page as me... feels good now to have put in all the many hours of work, and to keep coming out on the right side. <br /><br />Hopefully you guys will remember the good calls and forgive me when I get a few wrong eventually. :)PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-67012917117862540692011-11-22T17:44:55.464-10:002011-11-22T17:44:55.464-10:00PL
I have traded a long, long time, with many diff...PL<br />I have traded a long, long time, with many different pros, but I have seldom seen someone nail the market as well as you. Congrats, man. You are in a real roll.Coloradonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-73547932292438023442011-11-22T17:35:34.972-10:002011-11-22T17:35:34.972-10:00china PMI, lowest since march 2009...the last leg ...china PMI, lowest since march 2009...the last leg holding this market up is coming down.<br />Great calls Pretzel. I'm short now, but question at this point is do I chase with my remaining cash or wait for a bounce of some kind. hmm..... RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-40225062266244183682011-11-22T17:00:33.795-10:002011-11-22T17:00:33.795-10:00No worries. I thought that things were getting com...No worries. I thought that things were getting complex.Coloradonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-35085127995426427292011-11-22T16:27:23.724-10:002011-11-22T16:27:23.724-10:00Hey Pretz,
So I'm trying to determine if you&#...Hey Pretz,<br />So I'm trying to determine if you're asking whether the waterfall waterfall will continue, or whether the crash crash will continue. Personally I say the crash crash will continue. :p<br />That's five consecutive sessions closing lower!<br /><br />As for you problem child, that character cracks me up too sometimes, only I suspect for different reasons than you. For me it's the comical hypocrisy. All of the childish name calling - INTERNET YELLING, internet insults and the failure to realize how childish and self descriptive those are as he hurls them. <br /><br />I haven't been around much yesterday or today, but he was throwing a temper tantrum like a 2 yr old on Monday "threatening" lol that he would come back and talk so much filth that it would make you cringe. Maybe he did and that's why you banned his IP. Which led to another laugher "I have a roaming worldwide IP, that resets when I reboot." Talk about pretentious and dumb, that's DHCP LMAO!! I have that as well btw. <br /><br />Its hilarious to me that this character really acts as though he believes that his internet insults and name calling are hurtful or effective, so I laugh when he talks about his 'fury'. I could care less if any of that is ever hurled at me, I would laugh even more and expect that sooner or later it would be regardless of this post. I've participated in forums that are very caustic and profane, and I've been to plenty of hell holes around the world, possibly even the hell hole he came from, so it doesn't faze me one bit.<br /><br />I know that isn't the type of community you want here and it doesn't belong here, so I am not saying any of this for the sake of instigating but face it Pretzel, characters such as that are all over the internet and if IP banning didn't work you may not have many other options besides deleting. That is unless you actually believe that someone so who claims repeatedly that they will leave would actually do so. <br /><br />OK, most of that wasn't about the markets or your charting, but couldn't exactly ignore the elephant in the room,but I'm not going to dwell on it much either. <br /><br /><br /> Greennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-37194256735016838392011-11-22T16:05:30.131-10:002011-11-22T16:05:30.131-10:00lol, TY POTUS. We'll see if the bears can pus...lol, TY POTUS. We'll see if the bears can push through 'til morning.PretzelLogicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-70474362315527995352011-11-22T15:49:48.654-10:002011-11-22T15:49:48.654-10:00Pretzel - looks like your pref count is the bomb.....Pretzel - looks like your pref count is the bomb.... Futures just touched 1170- you're like the magic 8 ball but you actually have answers. Seems like market sentiment has everyone waiting for little rally to reload shorts or offload longs and the market is just not obliging.POTUSnoreply@blogger.com