tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post8922991601104443649..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX and NDX Update: So Far, So Good... and What to Look for NextPretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger231125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-60843521807184165962011-11-03T03:13:16.362-10:002011-11-03T03:13:16.362-10:00CTP - your cycle should magically work out perfect...CTP - your cycle should magically work out perfecto. I was short into the close and staring at plummeting futures and woke up to see the opposite :(<br />I guess once the euphoria of the open subsides I think that completes WAVE 4 with wave 5 to start downGordonGekkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04663077811792784833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-3557103488831232672011-11-03T03:12:16.718-10:002011-11-03T03:12:16.718-10:00Man, too much work tonight. Update's posted, ...Man, too much work tonight. Update's posted, so let's move the discussion over there. :)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-82944818468731067952011-11-03T03:08:40.875-10:002011-11-03T03:08:40.875-10:00Wow... Total opposite scenario of what I had envis...Wow... Total opposite scenario of what I had envisioned. Fed was the goat and ECB the hero. Just goes to show that even if you have the cycle roadmap down perfectly (down into Tuesday then up into 11/4 +/- 1) you can still get fooled by the market action. Call me paranoid but I'll bet that Bernanke was so stingy for the sole purpose of luring bears into a trap so ECB could squeeze them with surprise rate cut.CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-91729583849135858882011-11-03T03:05:07.367-10:002011-11-03T03:05:07.367-10:00yep...gonna see our 1250 print on the open, time f...yep...gonna see our 1250 print on the open, time for the shorts to go on...This really should complete wave 2.RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-42939108348294251682011-11-03T02:09:02.311-10:002011-11-03T02:09:02.311-10:00What Hope ? That the Socialists are replaced by N...What Hope ? That the Socialists are replaced by New D who doesn't like the bailout and wants to renegotiate ? The problem is they want the money but don't like the austerity measures. They are so used to getting freebies they just want it the way it was. Sort of sounds like the NBA playersGordonGekkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04663077811792784833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-25068898958258249292011-11-03T01:59:33.651-10:002011-11-03T01:59:33.651-10:00The current WSJ main headline: "Greece Hopes ...The current WSJ main headline: "Greece Hopes lift Wall St"<br /><br />The headline seems to personify a "Slope of Hope" environment...jacostrausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02542311353896984645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-39332614947012730742011-11-03T00:10:09.402-10:002011-11-03T00:10:09.402-10:00Futures acting psychotic tonight. I got stopped o...Futures acting psychotic tonight. I got stopped out for an 11 point profit. Flat now and waiting.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-3217265694353137462011-11-02T20:17:33.909-10:002011-11-02T20:17:33.909-10:00Pretzel,
No problem man, hope that small bit helps...Pretzel,<br />No problem man, hope that small bit helps a at least a little bit. :)<br /><br />Tell your wife thanks for the hug!<br /><br />mavmavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-76007210685226953482011-11-02T19:49:11.579-10:002011-11-02T19:49:11.579-10:00Pretzel, move to Cape Town for a better timezone! ...Pretzel, move to Cape Town for a better timezone! It is now just before 8 a.m. Central European Time here. Our market open at 9 CET (same as European markets for 6 months and 1 hour earlier during their winter.<br /><br />Then we trade until 17h00 CET and can watch US market until their close at 22h00 CET. <br /><br />What a pleasure ;-)jacostrausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02542311353896984645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-15108868362480116902011-11-02T19:38:58.368-10:002011-11-02T19:38:58.368-10:00Ugh, just when I think I might be able to take a b...Ugh, just when I think I might be able to take a break...<br /><br />What bears do NOT want to see tomorrow is a 5-wave structure that fails to take out the 1197 low. That would actually lend more credence to the alternate count. (Of course, maybe bears DO want to see that to have the opportunity to get short from much higher levels... but that's actually a good reason it probably won't happen.)<br /><br />I'm still strongly favoring the Thursday top, though, because it took most people by surprise. That's what we need for a strong move down... that way sellers just keep showing up in the middle, because they were surprised by the sudden reversal top. Another leg up would let bears back in and bulls out.<br /><br />But, yeah, we may have finished wave ii already. Looks like I have more chart work tonight than I first thought... <br /><br />I like the wave ii idea here because, again, it didn't let many bears in. Everybody was waiting for a tag of obvious resistance. For a good third wave, we need accellerating momentum, which only comes when sellers start jumping in *while the wave is in progress*. If everybody got in or out at the top, there's nothing to accelerate the move.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-91659393567695355012011-11-02T17:40:59.382-10:002011-11-02T17:40:59.382-10:00Rock,
Working on the charts now... but what I'...Rock,<br /><br />Working on the charts now... but what I'll probably do is use a trailing buy stop, for 2 reasons:<br /><br />1) I'm going to NEED to get some sleep at some point<br /><br />2) The off chance that we just saw wave ii (!). We've got a big head and shoulders pattern now forming a potential right shoulder, and that could be a trigger for wave iii...<br /><br />Still working, but that's my preliminary plan.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-66035769045672065802011-11-02T17:32:54.552-10:002011-11-02T17:32:54.552-10:00yeah...220 at this point...is that a record commen...yeah...220 at this point...is that a record comment count for your blog?<br /><br />what are your plans for those shorts tomorrow? going to look for a price target or for price action that suggests a bounce?RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-62784650273845378942011-11-02T16:57:44.590-10:002011-11-02T16:57:44.590-10:00POTUS -- yeah, in the ballpark for sure. I haven&...POTUS -- yeah, in the ballpark for sure. I haven't done any hard math yet, but that sounds about right. 950 might be a tad aggressive... but we should, theoretically, take out 1074 on this wave 1 of Minor (3).<br /><br />Also, I'm right there with you on the comments... couldn't find an option to change it. Looking through the blog help forums now for an answer. <br /><br />Eventually, I may need to look into a better comments forum in general; one where we can post pictures and quote other posters and such.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-38530315839844086462011-11-02T16:51:47.482-10:002011-11-02T16:51:47.482-10:00Thanks, mav!
My wife sends a big hug and a thank ...Thanks, mav!<br /><br />My wife sends a big hug and a thank you. :)<br /><br />She thought that was very cool, btw.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-60218182451541615082011-11-02T16:28:58.906-10:002011-11-02T16:28:58.906-10:00Pretz - any way to change blog settings so newest ...Pretz - any way to change blog settings so newest posts are at the top? So many posts..my finger gets tired scrolling down on my ipad. Don't have access to graphs tonight but quick back of envelope as 5 unfolds.. This wave should take us to about 1192 give or take? (makes my math easy) Wave 2 retraces 38% of wave 1 move - so we go back to 1238 (where we battled it out today). Then we get good ole wave 3 which gives us 162% of wave 1 or 162 points down from 1238 which takes us to wouldn't you know it....1076. A nice revist of our good friend mister bottom... Wave 4 then gives everyone who hasn't taken up hars drugs a little breather and we go back to roughly 1140 before wave 5 takes us down the elevator to 950 area. I am new to the EW stuff but conceptually am i in the ballpark?POTUSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-65569462750681961252011-11-02T16:25:21.981-10:002011-11-02T16:25:21.981-10:00LOL, Mav!
Yeah, I'll let her know it's fo...LOL, Mav!<br /><br />Yeah, I'll let her know it's for her. :)PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-57681566552128707132011-11-02T16:24:15.838-10:002011-11-02T16:24:15.838-10:00lol agreed. Awesome call. I want to make a donatio...lol agreed. Awesome call. I want to make a donation to your wife for not stabbing you. Can I make that happen?mavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-4952685252333024192011-11-02T16:21:19.637-10:002011-11-02T16:21:19.637-10:00I love days that play out so well I don't even...I love days that play out so well I don't even have to adjust the charts for the next article:<br /><br />http://www.screencast.com/t/aCPiddgrSmlPretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-63700675075916864722011-11-02T16:11:49.158-10:002011-11-02T16:11:49.158-10:00*"computure" being, of course, Lithuania...*"computure" being, of course, Lithuanian for "computer." Or a typo, one of the two.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-13035930296682859212011-11-02T16:08:34.512-10:002011-11-02T16:08:34.512-10:00TY Rock. Really felt like today was wave 4, and w...TY Rock. Really felt like today was wave 4, and when I got that low-risk entry, I had to take it.<br /><br />For those who've asked why I like futures, now you know. I can take a position like that and rest easy (even when I fall asleep at my computure, lol) knowing I don't have to fear a gap up in the cash market.<br /><br />Starting to look like the wave 4 preferred count was correct. Perfect head and shoulders on the 1-minute chart. Expect we'll back-test the neckline tonight, then head down toward 1200.<br /><br />I agree w/ William on not under-estimating EU's ability to disappoint here... anyone know what time that happens?<br /><br />Be interesting to see if we head down until then, then form the 5th wave bottom on the announcement.<br /><br />Here's a quick chart and sloppy chart of the head and shoulders:<br /><br />http://www.screencast.com/t/mnacPRFqPretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-9978262142896743022011-11-02T15:37:41.735-10:002011-11-02T15:37:41.735-10:00yeah, great call pretzel.yeah, great call pretzel.RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-23702510109246442592011-11-02T15:30:12.499-10:002011-11-02T15:30:12.499-10:00looks like wave 5 of 1 is about to start tonight.....looks like wave 5 of 1 is about to start tonight...pretzel's shorts are probably going to pay off for him. I bet we find 1194 tomorrow, and bounce back to the 1260 area to backfill gaps on friday or monday to align with CTP's cycles, maybe the jobs report offers some hope for the bulls...that would complete wave 2. Then next week wave 3 of 3 destroys this market and we find the next low around CTP's cycle date of 11/11. I'm covering shorts at tomorrow's low...likely occuring in the AM.RockyTopnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-68433537743738511952011-11-02T15:29:02.560-10:002011-11-02T15:29:02.560-10:00ugh...
I literally passed out at my computer... j...ugh...<br /><br />I literally passed out at my computer... just woke up when one of the kids came down the hall yelling. Kudos to my wife for letting me sleep this whole time and not trying to stab me (yet). <br /><br />There has got to be a better time zone for this, and I've got to find a way to manage these hours better. Next week, the market opens at 2:30 a.m. HST.<br /><br />Looks like my ES shorts are killin' it right now. 15 pts in the black. Surprised they didn't try and run the stops, at least on the futures anyway... such an obvious short there. Or maybe there just wasn't any firepower.<br /><br />Anyway, I've got to go try to wake up. :/<br /><br />Be back in a bit.PretzelLogichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-30876845952438900252011-11-02T15:20:20.850-10:002011-11-02T15:20:20.850-10:00tomorrows futures look ugly.tomorrows futures look ugly.mavrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06374468068467353995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-17380267093882170912011-11-02T14:52:09.514-10:002011-11-02T14:52:09.514-10:00good summary...
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/201...good summary...<br /><br />http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/11/03/greece-is-probably-a-goner-time-to-worry-about-italy-spain/CTPtraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532997363033021227noreply@blogger.com