tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post9094887513699055983..comments2024-03-18T14:37:21.899-10:00Comments on Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: SPX and Dow Update: Critical Week for the Short Term?PretzelLogichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11613859771824863784noreply@blogger.comBlogger272125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-59280327305345029652011-12-20T04:00:05.898-10:002011-12-20T04:00:05.898-10:00Okay, update's posted, let's continue disc...Okay, update's posted, let's continue discussion on the new thread.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-48587203634709728632011-12-20T03:52:48.396-10:002011-12-20T03:52:48.396-10:00I am also seeing an RSIdivergence - RSI bottomed o...I am also seeing an RSIdivergence - RSI bottomed on the SPX futures hourly chart on 12/14 @ 10 am and has made higher lows since even though price has trended lower. I am staying cautious and in cash. Looking for a higher price point to enter shortAswiderskinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-41831148068760196132011-12-20T03:17:15.444-10:002011-12-20T03:17:15.444-10:00This is also my understanding, in NDX we have a t...This is also my understanding, in NDX we have a tiangle in profressPaolohttp://trend-borsa.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-90295460189954116782011-12-20T02:31:43.756-10:002011-12-20T02:31:43.756-10:00Like I told you yesterday, gold is almost surely h...Like I told you yesterday, gold is almost surely heading higher for a few days, at least enough to relieve some of the current oversold condition, and more importantly, high bearish sentiment. <br /><br />However, on the other side of this coin, is there is some resistance in the $1630's area, and humongous resistance in the $1660's area; plus, even more importantly, gold has spent the last few days under its 200ma, something which it had not done since mid 2008, after which it then spent half a year deeply under it. <br /><br />So, even though I concur that gold is toast, however, the bearish sentiment is now so strong, I still strongly opine gold will try to rally above $1600's, for at least a fw days this week---and as such, because I have zero doubt that there is NO gold/spx decoupling, I continue to strongly opine that spx won't crash until both are ready to crash together. <br /><br />Therefore, I do not recommend further spx shorts, for at least 2 more days, because I feel spx will try to make one last charge, to try to take out the BEARWALL in 1250 area, which obviously, even though it won't succeed, another minirally for a couple of days at least, will bring back temporarily strengthen the bullish seasonal psychology, enough to clean up the current daily oversold rsi and macd conditions. However, this should be a very weak minirally, with very low volume, confirming yet again, that the man trend is DOWN.<br /><br />Btw, as I expected from yesterday, silver has already rallied today around 2 percent (currently at approx $29.30), and has the ability to go even higher over next 2 days also, easily into the upper $30 area, where it will start meeting some resistance, and any penetration into the $31 area, should be shortlived. But here also I see a minirally (min. 2 day) , to go along with gold, and the spx.ANON20noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-73663451431282386452011-12-20T01:09:21.096-10:002011-12-20T01:09:21.096-10:00Yeah, that's real helpful. Maybe time to swit...Yeah, that's real helpful. Maybe time to switch platforms -- could end up costing quite a bit not to.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-64833181310351849612011-12-20T01:08:13.734-10:002011-12-20T01:08:13.734-10:00It's possible. I'm reworking the count a b...It's possible. I'm reworking the count a bit with the new data. It's really a b*tch to nail down exactly what this structure is supposed to be... but there are less bearish alternatives which are apparent now. Still has the larger trend down, but maybe not as steep just yet.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-82998209700488145162011-12-20T00:57:18.610-10:002011-12-20T00:57:18.610-10:00Is it possible that we are near an overnight gap-d...Is it possible that we are near an overnight gap-down for a 3of3of3of3 and so on..? :) maybe tomorrow..Rivertradenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-16757531398289668732011-12-20T00:57:17.321-10:002011-12-20T00:57:17.321-10:00Thanks for that. I had issues with my trading plat...Thanks for that. I had issues with my trading platform last week meaning I've had to ditch it. I can see from what you've posted that the charts I'm looking at currently have a very slightly different x-axis/timescale; seems a small amount of the data at the start of the week is missing, meaning any trendliens drawn project differently. Just what you want!RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-26934628175456553252011-12-20T00:52:48.764-10:002011-12-20T00:52:48.764-10:00It's very close to my stop now... I'm char...It's very close to my stop now... I'm charting and have the trade on autopilot, so I may not update in real time if I get stopped, since I'm not watching.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-59806952281203573142011-12-20T00:34:51.637-10:002011-12-20T00:34:51.637-10:00Chart... if it comes up. I hate Disqus.Chart... if it comes up. I hate Disqus.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-19687864553285107342011-12-20T00:29:02.014-10:002011-12-20T00:29:02.014-10:00At 1211 it's testing the old trendline connect...At 1211 it's testing the old trendline connecting the 12/09 and 12/13 peaks. If you notice where it bounced, it bounced off an old trendline connecting 12/09 and 12/13 troughs, which has already been broken a number of times -- so my thinking is (for whatever reason) the market seems to be in tune w/ 12/09 & 12/13.<br /><br />If it breaks above, I'll stop and reshort.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-62667318705492168872011-12-20T00:15:28.932-10:002011-12-20T00:15:28.932-10:00PL, you're not waiting for it to test the 13/1...PL, you're not waiting for it to test the 13/16/19-Dec trendline on this ABC?RolfTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-31752486460308577892011-12-19T23:57:27.355-10:002011-12-19T23:57:27.355-10:00Pretty tight stops, btw.Pretty tight stops, btw.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-18530470079714261922011-12-19T23:56:41.349-10:002011-12-19T23:56:41.349-10:00Just went short at 1211 ES.Just went short at 1211 ES.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-72248485936082747332011-12-19T21:36:08.295-10:002011-12-19T21:36:08.295-10:00Thanks for reply, I have been using sds calls, out...Thanks for reply, I have been using sds calls, out of the money, did pretty good november but gave it all back dec, strike price too high, will look at tza, just starting not sure how to tell if premiums are expensive for out of the money options, in the money i can handleMnykn9noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-86005547356093506842011-12-19T20:27:14.160-10:002011-12-19T20:27:14.160-10:00Thanks much!Thanks much!Marc_crabnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-76240734156781251132011-12-19T20:24:09.169-10:002011-12-19T20:24:09.169-10:00Doing a few holiday activities w/ the kids right n...Doing a few holiday activities w/ the kids right now, so I'll bbl.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-21270952832617658932011-12-19T20:22:52.664-10:002011-12-19T20:22:52.664-10:00Many thanks to Rebel for his donation! :)Many thanks to Rebel for his donation! :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-17677692479334305982011-12-19T19:35:24.684-10:002011-12-19T19:35:24.684-10:00I have had the best luck buying deep in the money ...I have had the best luck buying deep in the money calls on TZA. Looking at VIX options now but not found any strikes I like or premiums are steep.Rebelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-13644621121094714112011-12-19T19:28:33.964-10:002011-12-19T19:28:33.964-10:00dude, that takes some skill indeed. though around ...dude, that takes some skill indeed. though around 1209 was (hint sight of mine) kinda to be expected considering previous low there, but 1215; i'd no clue. soulsurferusanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-55772192254025883962011-12-19T19:14:17.173-10:002011-12-19T19:14:17.173-10:00I've been trying to trade with options as well...I've been trying to trade with options as well with the help of PL's awesome insight, but not quite getting there either my strike price is off by a bit or I run out of time, trying to fine tune this and so far break even or in the red, just wondering how other people are doing with options Mnykn9noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-28202946478418332682011-12-19T18:52:23.673-10:002011-12-19T18:52:23.673-10:00Thanks! :)Thanks! :)Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-66501441894726655022011-12-19T18:51:23.026-10:002011-12-19T18:51:23.026-10:00Dunno if I'd say calling the turns at 1209 and...Dunno if I'd say calling the turns at 1209 and 1215 *before they happened* was "easy", lol -- but the morning top at least was very clear.Pretzel Logichttp://PretzelCharts.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-50002692842635410152011-12-19T18:40:06.710-10:002011-12-19T18:40:06.710-10:00PL, great calls. today was as easy as it gets'...PL, great calls. today was as easy as it gets' clear top in the morning, clear bottom, nice sideways action; 1215 was hit once, then not taken out at 3:05pm (1212) and boom, down we went. wish every day was like this!soulsurferusanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-947237681666122369.post-74448159204581148992011-12-19T18:34:46.727-10:002011-12-19T18:34:46.727-10:00Thanks. I have been following for a couple of mon...Thanks. I have been following for a couple of months and tried to join but I had issues with my IPad and Disqus. I could never get it to accept my registration and login so I am still a guest until I get it fixed. I have been net short for quite a while thanks to another EW guru, in his own mind, who said wave 3 was just around the corner months ago. Luckily it has just cost me time and some rebalancing on my ETFs. My wife actually found you earlier but didn't tell me. Your analysis is incredible and very helpful in my option trades, I know little about futures. I will be donating very soon. Thanks for all you do for us.Rebelnoreply@blogger.com