SPX, INDU, RUT, TRAN, COMPQ -- 1904 SPX as Red-Line Critical Support

The more charts I look at, the more I'm worried for the bull case.  I still wouldn't characterize myself as "bearish," but I would be very bearish below 1904 SPX.

I spent too much time on charts tonight, and didn't leave myself much time for words, so we're going to get right to it.  Hopefully the annotations will lay out my thoughts in enough detail.

First, let's look at some of the charts that are making me worried for the bull case.  We'll start with BKX.  This shows the "mild" bear case:

Next, TRAN -- this is a little more of a hardcore bear case, because the count implies a third wave (the longest and strongest wave) decline below 7959.

Bouncing over to COMPQ, we see the overlap at 4413 rules out the rally as a fourth wave (waves 1 and 4 cannot overlap) -- therefore, any decline below the recent swing lows should be treated as a third wave.  In other words, any breakdowns should be approached as the precursor to a potential waterfall decline.

Next is RUT, which is flashing more warning signals for bulls.  Remember Monday's little "or 2?" annotation?  That's where the rally stalled.  Again, there's third wave decline potential here.  If bulls can sustain a breakout over 1149, it would help relieve some of the bearish potential energy that's coiling in this chart, and could trigger a larger rally.

Another look at INDU's long term chart below.  INDU has so far failed to reclaim the broken red trend line, which is a key pivot zone.  Most of the time, trend lines like that don't count.  This one does.

Also note that on Monday, the only "official" personal target I gave for the rally was in INDU, and my target was 16,660 +/-, which was effectively reached at 16628 (32 points in INDU is the equivalent of about 3-4 points in SPX).

Let's look at SPX.  Given what I'm seeing in other markets, I think we have to consider 1904 as a critical support zone for the time being.

Incidentally, a reader asked me why the decline was corrective, but showed as five-waves off the all-time high.  Please note the all-time high is being counted as wave B of an expanded flat.  For anyone who missed it, I explained this pattern in detail on August 4.

SPX 15-minute.  The rally stalled at the black (3) on this chart (Monday), but it looks to me like (4) and (5) may have compressed.  It's entirely possible the rally is essentially over.

To the north, bears probably want to step aside if SPX is trading above 1944, at least until a resistance zone is hit and/or a clearer picture emerges.

In conclusion, the more charts I study, the more I'm nervous for the bulls.  In fact, if the market hadn't found support directly where it "should" have for a larger fourth wave (big blue (4) on the 30-minute SPX chart), I would probably actually favor the bear count at this juncture.  As it sits, I can't quite bring myself to do that just yet -- and SPX would maintain a bullish bias above 1944.  But if SPX sustains trade south of 1904, then I would be very inclined to treat that as the start of a large third wave decline.  Trade safe.

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SPX, INDU, RUT: Market Rallies after Maui Survives Hurricane

On Thursday, while the big island (of Hawaii) and parts of Maui were busy being flooded by The Tropical Storm Formerly Known as Hurricane Iselle, SPX and INDU were busy capturing my target zones.  On Friday, the storm broke up and moved on.  And the market rallied, as Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief that Maui had survived. 

What, you think it was something else?  Makes as much sense as any of the "let's try to explain why the market did what it did today" news headlines you see on CNBC.  (Long-time readers know I believe that, outside of huge events, news is noise.)

So here we are.  We got the additional fifth waves lower I was looking for; SPX captured my 1899-1907 target (low 1904.78); INDU captured the green target zone and then rallied from the confluence of support that I'd noted.  Easy, right?  Time to mortgage the house and buy calls! 

Well... not so fast.

Frankly, I hate when the market does exactly what I expect it to do.  Well, I don't hate it (it makes me, and hopefully you, money) -- but it always makes me rethink everything.  I don't believe anyone's supposed to be "allowed" to anticipate the market perfectly, so when everything goes perfectly, then I start challenging whatever my next expectation is/was.

Part of this comes about from my prior experiences.  Back in the 2000-2002 bear market, I had (finally) really started making Elliott Wave work for my trading -- and I managed to hit a bunch of turns in a row.  I grew my account by about 700% in only a few months, and began to feel invincible.  Every turn kept going according to plan.  I felt like Russ in Vegas Vacation ("I put a dollar in, won a car!  I put a dollar in, won a car!"), so I decided I had everything right.  I had "cracked the code," and it was time to swing for the fences on my next trade.  So I not only took a huge position, but I leveraged myself to Kingdom Come. 

It would be the trade to end all trades -- the trade that would allow me to quit trading forever!  After that trade, I would move to Maui and live out my days getting sunburns, dodging hurricanes, and sipping Starbucks Frappucinos on the beach. 

That was the plan, anyway.  But, of course, that was the trade that went sour.  In a big way. 

My arrogance, and my resultant complete lack of risk management, devastated my account (it was 7 more years before I'd be able to recover... and move to Maui -- though with less sunburns, and more Frappacinos, than I had originally planned).

And ever since then, I rigorously consider the other side of the trade.

So even though everything went according to plan, we're also going to spend some time talking about the other side of the trade (the bear side).  Let's start off with the big picture INDU chart.  INDU found support where I suspected it would.  The chart notes a couple resistance zones and signals, which may help gauge strength heading forward.

A closer view of INDU helps reveal that bulls aren't entirely out of the woods yet.  Considering how deep this decline was, a one-day rally in itself isn't exactly an all-clear signal that means we're headed straight to new all-time-highs.

RUT is one of the markets that really casts the intermediate bull case into shadow.  RUT looks like a pretty clear 3-wave structure into the lows, and that implies there could an expanded flat upwards correction underway -- though, if so, it would be expected to break the red line, which is still fairly bullish for the near-term.

The 30-minute SPX chart reveals the capture of Target 3, and notes the expanded flat potential:

Finally, the 15-minute chart below is not normally something I'd publish.  This is one of my "behind the scenes" charts, wherein I'm simply trying to figure out if a wave can be reconciled as complete, so I know what to consider and what I can rule out.  In this case, I can't rule out either option:  the downward correction may be entirely complete, or there may still be another wave down yet to come.

But nothing bearish happens while the market is still inside the red melt-up channel, and the very first correction from that channel is likely to be bought to at least a minor new high.

At this point, the best longs were the ones taken in the target zone -- and (for any shorts that held through the target) at the minimum, shorts should have been covered after the breakout and successful back-test of the blue trend line (that was the trend-following exit zone).  INDU and SPX both reached their target zones, so despite RUT (and a few other things), that has to be respected.

We're going to need a bit more info from the market to determine if wave C is indeed entirely complete at 1904.  I maintained a bearish stance since the day SPX reached 1990, but as of this exact moment, I am no longer bearish and would not be inclined to short this market arbitrarily.  While I am not entirely sold on the bull case just yet, that's a whole different animal than "being bearish," and the picture looks bullish for at least the near-term.  The next few sessions will help sort the bulls from the bears.  Trade safe.

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Hurricane Update

Word out here in Maui is that we may be facing one or possibly two (yes, two) hurricanes (and/or tropical storms), which are due to make landfall sometime tomorrow.

So, depending how that goes, there may not be another update until next week, since I may or may not have the following things after the storm hits:

1.  Internet.
2.  Power.
3.  Use of my limbs.

It's also possible that I'll have all of those things, but will be stuck cleaning up masses of debris and floodwater.  Last I heard, we're supposed to get 8-10 inches of rain; and rain is one of the main causes of these islands eroding into the sea (and eventually disappearing completely) over time.  So massive rain storms tend to damage our infrastructure.

Anyway, wish us luck!

And good luck out there in the market.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Market Approaching an Inflection Zone

Last update expected a fourth wave bounce, followed by new lows, and that's exactly what's happened since.  The market is now approaching an inflection zone, and things get more complex and become less predictable inside inflection zones.  Major turns can happen in inflection zones, or accelerations of trend can happen if inflection zones fail.  The one thing that's almost always guaranteed inside an inflection zone is that the market will try to confuse and veil its next move.

Let's start with the long-term INDU chart.  INDU has reached my next target zone, but still appears pointed lower, at least for the near-term.

A closer look below:

 
This is where things can be a little dangerous for novice traders.  Choose your battles very carefully here.  Instead of trying to find a new way to say the same thing, I'm just going to refer back to a few things I wrote on Monday:

"...waterfall declines do not lend themselves to the anticipation or projection of bounces -- they lend themselves to trend following.  C-waves are third waves -- and being early on third waves is not unlike trying to snag pennies off a railroad track in front of a speeding freight train...

Longer-term, I currently expect this decline is likely to resolve with new highs.  But part of the value of Elliott Wave comes not just from anticipation, but from understanding the market's position in the wave structure, and thus knowing when not to attempt anticipation.  Since I know we're in a third wave decline, and I know third waves are powerful waves that crush traders who jump in on the wrong side too early, I'll be watching for signs of base-building as the signal to flip long."

That, of course, doesn't mean I won't take a stab at trying to anticipate a bottom -- but I will choose my battles very carefully, and I will honor my stops.  And I will remember that I can't be both long and short at the same time -- so every attempt at a long that gets stopped represents not only money lost, but money I could have earned had I stayed short and followed the trend.

So, with caveats in place, the two-hour SPX chart: 

 And the 30-minute SPX chart:

In conclusion, things are now as complex as they've been in a while:  We have enough waves in place for a complete C-wave decline, yet we have no signs that the trend is over. 

In a perfect world, over the near-term, I would like to see at least two more new lows (micro fourth and fifth wave unwinds).  So near-term, the waves still look pointed downwards, which means I have no confirmation to call an end to Wave C yet -- and for all I know, the wave could extend.  In other words, if it reaches the next target zone, that doesn't necessarily mean it's over. 

This is a session-by-session market right now, which means that the results of only one session could turn everything either very bullish, or even more bearish.  The good news is that we will most likely recognize that moment when it comes.  Trade safe.

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SPX, NYA, RUT: Bulls Still in the Backseat, Asking: Are We There Yet?

Last update here at Minyanville (July 18) had us watching for new lows one way or another.  The alternate count in that update was for an expanded flat in the S&P 500 (SPX), and for a traditional ABC in the NYSE Composite (NYA).  I do feel the need to apologize to Minyanville readers in that I did not know that Minyanville would be on hiatus during the two weeks after that update, and so I did not go into any detail on the rules of the SPX alternate count of an expanded flat.  I just marked the charts with the "alt." labels, and figured I'd be able to address the wave rules on Monday, if the market dictated that it was appropriate to do so.

Had I known there would be no Monday update, then I'd have gone into greater detail on Friday, July 18.

I read back over that update yesterday evening, and I cringed a bit for Minyanville readers, because the rules I had labeled on the chart were for the preferred count (a traditional zigzag ABC), and not for an expanded flat.  I did mark the charts with the alternate labels placed where I thought the waves might end -- I had SPX labeled to top at 1990, and  NYA at 11,050 (the final highs ended up being 1991.39 in SPX and 11,058.96 in NYA).  I also mentioned that the alternate count would "provide a stellar short opportunity" if realized.  But I gave nothing by way of further explanation -- again, I figured I could go into further detail in Monday's update.  I didn't learn there would be no Monday update until a couple days later. 

In any case, my apologies for not detailing everything that very day.  The recent peak was the most well-telegraphed move of the year (as far as I'm concerned), and as close as I've ever seen to the market "ringing a bell" at the top.  The subsequent waterfall decline was even telegraphed in advance, after wave 1 of C bottomed at 1967.  Folks well-versed in Elliott Wave Theory probably needed no further explanation than the labels shown in the update of July 18, but for folks who are not well-versed, let's get caught up.

In Elliott Wave Theory, one form a correction can take is called a "zigzag" -- in that form, the start of wave A marks the price high, then wave B retraces part of wave A, but does not exceed the high of wave-A (in fact, a zigzag structure is invalidated if wave-B exceeds the start of the A-wave).  Wave-C then makes a new low.  That was the preferred count as of pre-market on July 18. 

Another corrective structure is called a flat, which can take several forms.  One possible form is called an "expanded flat."  Expanded flats behave much differently than zigzags; in an expanded flat, the B-wave high actually exceeds the start of wave-A.  In other words, in a bull market, the B-wave of an expanded flat makes a new all-time high.  That was the alternate count as of pre-market on July 18, and, as I wrote then:  "This chart also reveals a glimpse at an alternate count that, if realized, would almost certainly be an excellent shorting opportunity."

This 5-year bull market has seen several expanded flats; the most memorable of them culminated with wave-C becoming the 2011 mini-crash.

I believe SPX is currently in the C-wave of an expanded flat, though I believe it is at a smaller wave degree than 2011, and -- while I can't completely rule the following out -- I believe it is unlikely to be of the magnitude of 2011.  The main challenge at the moment is that the decline has already met and exceeded all my initial targets.  It has also met some of the adjusted targets, as of Friday's session.  And it doesn't look done yet.

Let's take a look at the 30-minute SPX chart to get our bearings.  We can see based on the wave count, and based on RSI, that it's unlikely wave-C is entirely complete.  More likely we are completing wave (3) of C, though it's not even entirely clear if wave (3) is finished.  Based on the Russell 2000 (RUT), wave (3) may still have room to run (RUT chart to follow shortly).

Before coming back to SPX, let's take a look at RUT.  Unless bulls sustain trade north of 1133, new lows appear quite likely for RUT.  We can see that red wave C is still a ways from its standard targets, which leads me to wonder as noted above on SPX.

RUT's near-term pattern seems to fit and confirm the idea that wave C isn't complete in SPX.
 
And now back to SPX for a broader view.  On the big picture SPX chart, the current expectation is two-fold:

1.  The decline isn't finished yet for the near-term.
2.  The final high isn't in yet for the long-term.

Looking at the above chart, one can almost hear bears saying, "No way there will be new highs!  Not after that decline!"  My only reply is:  Remember 2011.  Everyone said the same thing then. 

But -- is it possible that 1991 SPX is "it" for the bull market?  Or at least "it" for a long time?  Sure it is.  But here's the beauty of the whole thing:  we don't need to guess.  Right now, the pattern still points lower, so we don't have to get hung-up arguing about long-term charts.  Bears can stay bearish for the moment, as far as I can tell.

But the pattern on SPX looks like a clear expanded flat, so after the market completes five waves down, then we'll start looking for new highs to follow.  And the wonderful thing is that the same market that told us to short any rallies (back on July 18) should also warn us if we should start thinking bigger correction.

NYA is in a slightly different wave structure than SPX, and I believe it will give us fair warning if this decline is only the beginning (instead of the end).

On the NYA chart below, we can see a very clear three-wave ABC is forming.  If NYA completes that, and then goes on to form a fourth wave rally and a fifth wave decline (which would be labeled as red 4 and 5 -- not shown), then we will have an impulsive decline in NYA.  And we would thus know to forget about new all-time highs for the foreseeable future, because an impulsive decline would suggest a much larger correction was unfolding.

So, in conclusion, I feel the patterns are more clear than they've been all year, and I believe the charts are continuing to provide us an excellent road map that has very clear signposts.  And those signposts should give us advance warning about the market's next moves.

Presently, I do not believe the charts are suggesting a final low in place, but it's possible that a fourth wave bounce may be due.  How high that fourth wave will stretch is highly debatable, since waterfall declines do not lend themselves to the anticipation or projection of bounces -- they lend themselves to trend following.  C-waves are third waves -- and being early on third waves is not unlike trying to snag pennies off a railroad track in front of a speeding freight train.  Maybe you'll even get away with a few, but does the risk/reward make much sense?

Longer-term, I currently expect this decline is likely to resolve with new highs.  But part of the value of Elliott Wave comes not just from anticipation, but from understanding the market's position in the wave structure, and thus knowing when not to attempt anticipation.  Since I know we're in a third wave decline, and I know third waves are powerful waves that crush traders who jump in on the wrong side too early, I'll be watching for signs of base-building as the signal to flip long.  Trade safe.

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Reprinted by permission; Copyright 2014 Minyanville Media, Inc.

SPX, NYA, COMPQ, INDU -- Targets Met/Exceeded, and a Look at the Big Picture

The old expression is:  "They don't ring a bell at the top."  Well, "they" may not, but in this case, the charts sure did.  Enjoy this one, because moves that are telegraphed so well in advance don't come along often.

To recap:  We knew to look for a peak near 1990 SPX almost a week before the market got there.  Price hit the target area, and then we got confirmation of the reversal via an impulsive first wave off the high.  On Monday, we knew to watch for a second wave bounce, which we got.  On Wednesday, we knew to watch for a waterfall if SPX broke 1967 -- and then on Thursday, we got the waterfall.

It doesn't get any better than this, so enjoy it while it lasts.  Most of the time, the market plays coy and ambiguous.

I am assuming most readers have made good profits recently -- so remember that, when trading, there's a time to expand your capital and there's a time to protect it.  Expand it on the high-probability, low risk/reward plays like we just had.  Protect it when the entries become high-risk and ambiguous.  I'll be frank -- that's a discipline I myself have not entirely mastered, but my own experiences there have taught me a few things I'd like to share.

My biggest strength as a trader, and my biggest weakness, is the exact same trait:  I'm ambitious.  And I believe it's in the nature of ambitious people to want to "be in the action" constantly, and thus to try to keep expanding indefinitely.  But nothing in life works that way.  Everything "breathes," in a sense.

Know when it's time to stop expanding, and when it's time rest for a while  After a period of expansion, allow yourself time to consolidate and solidify that victory.  Don't be like the gambler who wins a huge jackpot, then gives it all right back because he doesn't realize (or accept) that it's time to cash out.  Conserve capital and wait patiently for the next expansion point -- which will either be a low-risk entry, or a clear pattern (or both).  That moment may come quickly; sometimes expansion follows upon itself almost immediately.  But it may not.

The point is that we can't force things; we should try to let the market come to us.  When it does, then we should go with the flow -- take what it gives us, and let the waves do their work.

It's in our natures to want more.  So we sometimes fight our way into positions that we know are ill-advised -- and then we fight our way out of positions when we know we should just let them ride.  But if you can master those two self-defeating tendencies, then your account will grow by leaps and bounds.  There will still be reversals of fortune, but they will come less frequently, and the increases will ultimately outweigh the reversals. 

I think trading attracts the ambitious, so I have to believe these are almost universal struggles for traders.  So your ambition got you into trading -- great.  Now if you want to keep trading, then you must learn to temper ambition with discipline.

It might help the ambitious to consider what a friend once told me: "You'll get more done in six days than in seven."  Meaning:  Sometimes the most productive thing we can do is nothing.

"Nothing" as in:  Don't force trades.
"Nothing" as in:  Leave your position alone once you're finally in that trade you wanted all along. 

Just as a farmer will fail if he doesn't know in which season to plant his crops and in which season to harvest, a trader will fail if he doesn't know when to take action and when to sit still.

Aim to learn the differences that define which moments are which -- and then, more importantly, act (or do nothing) based on that knowledge.  In the end, that is what separates the long-term successful traders from the shooting stars (who grow their accounts rapidly and then flame out just as quickly).

Many traders ultimately consume themselves under the compulsions of their own raw ambition.  There is no lasting success without discipline.

Okay, enough Zen talk!  Let's get to the charts.

Let's start off with NYA, since we owe NYA a debt of gratitude for fattening our accounts by telegraphing this turn well in advance:

COMPQ, which has yet to make a new low -- but which also allowed not one, but two great low-risk entries, so it's hard to complain.  Bears should be careful here:

The two-minute SPX chart tells us that it's likely there will be at least one fourth and fifth wave unwind before any meaningful bottom.  SPX is still trading within the waterfall channel, and a breakout there is the first step for bulls to begin to have a chance.  But, generally speaking, the first breakout from a crash channel is simply a deceleration of the trend, as opposed to a full reversal.

Don't pay too much attention to where the (3) and (4) fall on this chart.  There are no particularly reliable targets at this exact moment, and all my "official" targets were already reached.

Finally, the question everyone's asking now is, "Where are we in the big picture?"  Well, that's an issue of some debate, as we'll see in a moment.  Let's take a look at the obvious answer first, via SPX:

INDU disagrees.  But there may still be an answer for INDU that brings the blue count in SPX and INDU into agreement -- we'll call it the Rodney King, "Can't we all just get along?" count.  I didn't have time to label that count, but I noted it in the annotations:

 
Incidentally, you've probably noticed a lot of charts contain after-hours annotations from the forums.  If you would like to become a member of our private forums, and you have donated recently, then please go to the forum link (here) and create an account.  After you've done that, then send an email to the same email address that the donations go to, which includes your member name and the email address you registered at the forum.  That will grant you access to the forum (please allow up to 48 hours).  It's an exceptional group of folks with great market insight, charts, and humor.  The atmosphere there is casual and fun, but respectful and collegial at the same time (unlike many forums around the web).

In conclusion, there are no signs of a significant bottom as of this exact moment.  And at this point, the standard targets have been exceeded, so things will need to be watched on a session-by-session basis.  At present, I do still believe this is a C-wave decline that will ultimately resolve with new highs, but I also think the market will give us some decent signals to let us know when the decline is over.

The approach to this market should be different for someone who's looking to protect profits on shorts vs. someone who's looking to go long for new highs.  Regarding opening longs in this market, the approach I'll take from here will probably miss the exact bottom by a few points -- but we don't have to anticipate every single move a week in advance to profit.  There's a time to anticipate, and there's a time to let the market lead -- and for me, anyway, this currently qualifies as the latter.  Trade safe.

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SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NYA, HYG:TLT -- Market Teetering on FOMC Day

First off, I want to thank everyone who gave a warm response to the issue mentioned in the last update.  Your support is truly appreciated!  (And you have yourselves to thank for the very existence of today's update; I stay true to my word.)

Today is FOMC day, and pundits almost unanimously expect the Fed will make a series of vague and inconclusive statements regarding past, present, and future monetary policy.  Afterwards, analysts will argue vehemently about what exactly Fedchairmanwomanperson Yellen meant when she said (things such as): "Soon, but not too soon!  Also not too late.  And certainly no later than too soon.  Whichever is greater!"

The market will gyrate wildly as traders try to determine if they should go short, cover shorts, go long, sell longs, or quit trading altogether -- all based on whether Yellen seems to be dovish, hawkish, or hummingbird-ish (who decided the Fed's stance should equate to birds?).

Yellen's overall demeanor will also be a factor.  Remember that one FOMC meeting a few years back, when Ben Bernanke suddenly got agitated and pounded his fist on the table, and the S&P 500 (SPX) immediately rallied 30 points?  Later, reporters learned this whole scene was because Bernanke was trying to smash a bug, and the market gave back all 30 points in less than 10 minutes.  If you don't remember that meeting, it's probably because I made it up -- but, nonetheless, those types of crazy moves are fairly common on FOMC day, and we should prepare for them.  One such preparation that's recommended by veteran traders is to either keep your positions small, or to have your local Suicide Hotline set to speed dial.

Moving to the charts, Monday saw the anticipated new low, and that new low thus seems to confirm an impulsive decline.  Assuming last week's highs hold, then things appear reasonably straightforward.  If that high fails, then all bearish bets are off and the preferred wave count is reset.

As I've looked at the charts tonight, I can't help but think bulls are going to do their best to make things interesting.  The rally from Monday's low counts best as an impulse wave, so a retest of the highs may be in store.  Keep in mind that the first directional move out of the FOMC debacle is usually a head-fake -- so that may be just what the doctor ordered for a c-wave that falls short of the all-time-high, but gets everyone looking up.  We'll start with the 2-minute SPX chart:

 Next the 10-minute chart:

NYA:

COMPQ... if COMPQ rallies directly, there may not be enough room for an ABC and things might get interesting.  Of course, there's no law that says COMPQ has to be in the exact same wave count as SPX or INDU -- in fact, it frequently is not.

INDU:

Finally, the HYG:TLT ratio chart is on a disconnect from the equities market:

In conclusion, nothing unexpected has happened yet, so the bears have to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.  In the meantime, though, a bit more rally would not be out of order.  One count that's not shown or discussed is for a smaller expanded flat that peaks between 81-85, and I mention that because it's not safe to assume that 85 will be broken if 81 is claimed by the bulls.

A lot will be decided in the next couple sessions.  I can't promise a super bullish resolution on a breakout, but a breakdown of Monday's low would have very bearish implications.  If the ABC rally is unfolding, bears may have to wait a couple sessions for their day in the sun.  It's a really tough call here, because many of my other indicators are confirming yesterday's drop as "real" (as opposed to corrective), so there's no easy answer regarding whether the ABC will unfold, or whether wave (2) is already entirely complete.

But the short version of the "bottom line" is that I remain bearish unless the all-time-high is claimed.

Keep in mind that the entire month of July has essentially been one big chop zone, so moves inside that zone will be full of sound and fury, and range-racing now would be normal.  Also keep in mind that, at this point, patterns that form inside the zone on smaller time frames will often be fakes, so approach near-term patterns with caution.  Trade safe.

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