SPX and Oil Updates

Last update noted that the preferred bull count was hinging upon the (then) all-time high appearing to have been a b-wave, but that I was favoring the bulls by a 60/40 margin.  That turned out to be correct, as SPX just barely made a new all-time high on Friday.  This continues to leave the edge (note: not the guitarist from U2) with the bulls, so bears are reduced to mere near-term hopes yet again, as shown on the chart below:

And while "alt: ii" is a genuine possibility (the near-term bear hope), I'm not inclined to favor that at the moment (hence the "alt" designation).  I'm more inclined to think the correction has burned enough time (and enough traders) that it's ready to break and run toward red iii.  However, given how much of a pain this market has been, I'm not implying that I'm dismissing "alt: ii" entirely (I wouldn't have placed it on the chart if I were), I'm just less inclined to think we go that route.

For what it's worth, I suspect SPX will decline at the open, toward 84, and potentially as low as 80-81, before rallying back up.  If we sustain a breakdown at 77, then alt: ii will be on the table.

Moving on from equities, I need to update the oil chart for readers, because oil has broken its previous high, and that alters the picture somewhat.  In the last update, I had "alt: bull b" at the 42.05 low, and that is now a more distinct possibility.  It appears that the wave that was previously labeled as blue abc with a c-wave diagonal may instead have been ALL OF A, which was a leading diagonal instead of an ending diagonal (it's almost impossible to differentiate the two in real time, because they often have the same micro structure). 

However, all is not yet lost for bears from a mid-term perspective, because there are a couple other options for wave B -- so I've outlined two important upside levels on the chart.  Bears should take blue C seriously if the market sustains a breakout over those levels.

In conclusion, SPX has confirmed my call that the 2588.40 high was a b-wave, which likely puts us in a small third wave rally.  The bear option simply forestalls that rally by stretching red ii sideways a bit farther.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Market Pulls a Sneaky

First of all, I want to warn against complacency here, because while this outlook is bullish, there are enough waves in place for a complete rally -- so the bull/bear scenario hinges on a wave that I'm interpreting as a b-wave.  If it's not a b-wave, then we'll break yesterday's low prior to exceeding the all time high, and hence 2566 is the "all bull bets are off" level.

That said, I'm favoring the bulls by a 60/40 margin here, because the all-time high looks very much like a b-wave, and the pattern fit my expected retrace for that first wave.  On October 30, I published the chart below, which showed SPX dropping to the high 2560's and bouncing before heading back down to the low 2560's.  That's exactly what happened, except the correction appears to have been an expanded flat (where the b-wave bounce exceeds the prior high), so we made a new ATH in the middle, which is always a possibility in a b-wave.  With the exception of that b-wave high, the projected correction played out quite well:

So, not only does the ATH look like a b-wave, but the total correction from 10/30 played out essentially textbook in terms of retrace levels.  This is why I'm favoring the bulls, with the bear count as the alternate -- as shown below:

INDU also looks like bulls continue to deserve the edge.  There is a chance we'll tack on another down/up sequence for an even more complex flat (though I suspect not -- I think we've done enough churning and are ready for a clean breakout).  But in the event we exceed the ATH in SPX and then drop like a rock (like the other day), then we'll anticipate that decline as wave C of a more complex flat.

In conclusion, it appears bulls still have the edge here, and SPX is likely headed toward 2625-35 next.  Of course, in the event that 2566 fails directly, then we'll have no choice but to shift to a neutral/bearish footing until things clarify.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

I just realized it's now been a month and a half of updates with me saying, "No real change, the market still looks pointed higher."  I've yet to even seriously consider a bear option (beyond the very short-term) during this run -- so either I've gotten better at "suspending my disbelief," or this has been an incredibly clear bull pattern.  Dunno which -- since I flatly refuse to read anyone else's work (and have for years), I have no clue if everyone else has also stayed on top of this or not.

So far, there's still nothing to suggest bears have taken over (or that they're about to), but again, that can always change in a couple sessions.  In the meantime, we still have to be aware of the potential for an extension that runs SPX into the mid-2600's, as I discussed a month ago.

Last update expected we'd see some sideways chop, and we had that in the sessions since, but it remains to be seen if that chop will grow more complex or not.  Futures are indicating a breakout at the open -- if that whipsaws significantly, then we can stay alert to more chop.  If it back-tests the breakout and that holds as support, then we're likely headed toward 2600 next.

In conclusion, there's still nothing much to add to the big picture outlook.  But as always, we'll stay alert for any signs of a reversal.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Surprise

Last SPX update concluded that "The decline... appears to have been corrective in nature, which implies new all-time-highs are on the menu."

SPX made new ATH's on Friday.  The question now is whether it's going to goof around a bit more before moving higher.  INDU and SPX both remain overbought, and bull markets often work off that condition by grinding sideways for a time.  I suspect we may do that, but the charts don't give me a reason to hold a strong opinion one way or the other on that potential at the moment.

Either way, we still don't have anything screaming at us to be bearish yet -- though that can always change in as little as one session.

I've drawn up one option on the chart below, but I'm not married to it.

Of note, INDU and RUT did not make new highs on Friday.  Usually INDU leads SPX, so unless that situation remedies quickly, then it might be further argument for some chop heading forward.  Trade safe.

RUT and SPX: RUT Backtests the Megaphone

Last update noted that we didn't have enough info yet to declare the rally dead.  The decline that followed appears to have been corrective in nature, which implies new all-time-highs are on the menu.  That said, there is at least a chance that decline was the start of something more bearish -- and in that regard, 2544 is the key level. 

Thus as long as 2544 holds, we'll lean toward favoring the bulls and the prior trend.  If it fails, then we'll give more credence to things bearish.

I would also note here that in the event 2544 marks the beginning of something bearish, we'll likely have a fairly close retest of the ATH before turning back down, so if one is bearishly inclined, there should be a reasonably low risk entry for bears in the next session or two.

One of the charts that has me leaning slightly toward bulls is RUT, which (so far) successfully backtested its recent megaphone breakout.  Now, that backtest can always get tested again and fail, which might be bearish were it to occur -- but right now, all we have to go on is what's actually in the charts.

Still no significant changes to SPX:

In conclusion, we probably still have to presume bulls have the edge here -- but don't get me wrong, I'm not "rabidly bullish" at this juncture, only leaning toward the bulls.  This is still an inflection point, so bears could always pull out a surprise upset.  The good news is that bears who feel obligated to go short should at least see a decent low-risk entry zone that won't cost them terribly if the bulls are indeed still running the show.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Another Big Picture Chart

Last update noted that we needed at least one more new high before we could consider the possibility that the rally had enough waves for completion, and we got that new high.  And a reversal. 

And what that means is that -- while the last few weeks have been easy trading with a clear uptrend and every update ending with some version of "the rally still looks pointed higher for now" -- the easy money may be over for the moment.  At least until this move clarifies a bit.  This is just part of the way things work, because it simply wouldn't be fair if we knew what the market was going to do every single day.

So this is the first bigger-picture ambiguity we've had in a while -- but as always, it will clarify soon enough.

In keeping with the recent theme of the updates, we're also going to step back and look at the larger time frames via INDU.  It's interesting sometimes to go back and read things from a year or more back.  In this case, I remember thinking how bullish this chart was if black bull 1/2 were accurate, and I likewise remember having doubts that things could be that bullish immediately, though I was still firmly bullish on the long-term.  Anyway, interesting to note that the pattern was indeed "that bullish."

In conclusion, INDU is overbought, and SPX does have enough waves up that a more extended correction here wouldn't be unreasonable -- nevertheless, we don't quite have enough info to commit to that idea yet.  Do note that if SPX immediately sustains a breakout north of 2573, there is the potential of a bull nest, so bears might want to exercise extreme caution if that occurs.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Very Long Term Projections for Nasdaq

We're going to look at a long-term chart of the Nasdaq Composite which has potentially enormous implications.  Let's look at the chart first, then discuss the implications:

The first thing we notice about this chart is that one could argue that COMPQ has been in a secular bull market since 2002 -- except that's all that's visible on this chart, because one could actually argue on a longer-term chart that COMPQ has been in a secular bull for decades longer than that.  But since there would inevitably be debate over the tech crash and whether that ended the secular bull, we'll set that argument aside and start this bull in 2002. 

That would make the 2008 crash part of a cyclical bear within the confines of a secular bull.  If this bull market is to develop into a five-wave move (as it should), then the next bear market (red 4) will pair with the 2007-09 bear, and will likewise be a cyclical bear within a secular bull.  The bull would then resume to form the final large fifth wave, which would pair with the 2002-2007 red 1/A -- meaning the pending fifth wave could last about 5 years.

But that rally, while significant and likely strong, would truly be a "last hurrah" -- to be followed by a true secular bear market that could last many years - potentially decades.  This may fit the demographics, and may likewise fit the "time to pay the piper" argument that bears have been making for a long time regarding the Federal Reserve's Keynesian boom/bust cycles. 

Those of us who started trading sometime after 1982 haven't seen a true secular bear market.  We've only seen cyclical bears, which end in V-bottoms -- because investors still think stocks are going back up.

Secular bear markets end not with V-bottoms, but with indifference.  Secular bears kill off the first wave of investors who buy the dips.  They kill off the second wave, too, and often beyond.  By the time a secular bear market ends, nobody even wants to own stocks anymore.  Secular bears are generational bear markets.

If all of the above is correct, we can establish a tentative time frame of 2023-25 to mark the potential end of the long-term bull market -- and possibly the beginning of a truly long-term bear market.

Food for thought.

In the meantime, we're not quite there yet, and this wave seems to have at least a bit farther to run before we finally see at least a decent tradeable correction.

Near-term, still nothing that screams "top."  SPX did reach my next unofficial target zone:

In conclusion, it appears increasingly likely that the next top will be a "big one," so there's no need to front-run and we can await clear signals.  For now, the market still looks pointed at least a little bit higher, and that's all we really need to know -- although we should keep in mind that it's now at least technically possible for bull 5 to complete on the next new high.  Trade safe.