SPX and INDU: No Change

Still no change, except to note that the market has indeed reacted to the 3025-30 SPX inflection zone.  Bears are holding their levels, so far -- bulls also held the first test of support:

SPX has now caught up to INDU, which has stalled sideways:

In conclusion, the market is in a state of equilibrium, caught between resistance and support.  The move down from the high in SPX could be viewed as 3-waves down (so far), but I can't entirely rule it out as an impulse with an extended fifth.  Either way, the next zone bears need is clear, as is the next zone bulls need.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: No Change

So, no real change since last update.  SPX is now in the "common target zone" for a (B) wave, if that's what this is.  Again, a (B) wave (if it develops) is only near-term bearish, it's still intermediate bullish.

INDU is still not joining in the party:

In conclusion, if bears are going to get a near-term reprieve, they probably need to start working on that pretty directly (the e-mini futures did react to the inflection zone on Friday -- we'll see if bears can do anything with that).  First step for bears would be an impulsive decline.  Again, (B) wave highs (or lows) are always ultimately expected to be exceeded, no matter how strongly the market reverses away from them -- so if bears DO get an immediate near-term reprieve, ironically, that's ultimately bullish.  If the pattern instead continues as an immediate bullish pattern, then it will still need a larger fourth wave, to pair with the red B/2 on the first chart.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

In the prior update, I was inclined to lean toward "up, then down" and we did get further upside, though I had been hoping for a stall shy of 3018, which was instead slightly exceeded... then yesterday, we did see some downside, but not enough (yet) to complete the near-term pattern I've been leaning toward.

I'm leaning toward the above pattern due to the action a few days ago in ES (the e-mini S&P futures).  ES made a new low where red B/2 is on the chart above, which suggests the expanded flat as shown.  Do keep in mind that while blue (C) does not need to run to 2945-50 as shown, it would normally at least be expected to break the blue (A) wave low. An expanded flat would then, likewise, suggest a reversal from that low back to a new high.  Meaning that, at present, there's nothing to suggest the larger uptrend has ended yet.

The first step for bears on the chart above would be to sustain a break at the red and black trend lines.

INDU hasn't been playing along with SPX at all lately, and failed to make a new ATH when SPX did:

In conclusion, in the bigger picture, nothing has changed from last week, and the market is still mucking about with the larger inflection point.  Near-term, I'm inclined to think we open today's session higher but that the odds are decent we then reverse toward blue (C) as shown on the first chart.  I am solely basing that call on the futures, however, and something cash is able to ignore the futures, so I can't be 100% on that... but we'll deal with other options if/when we need to.  Sustained trade beyond 3030 would cast doubt on bears receiving the above short-term reprieve.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Short and Sweet

Last update noted that:

I'm inclined to lean toward lower prices at this point, at least for the near-term -- but the market might not do so directly. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it rallies back toward 3007 first, then fails to crack the all-time high, then reverses back below last week's low.

Yesterday, we rallied up to 3005.90, about a point shy of the target -- but we may yet get another wave up (bulls probably need to hold 2990ish for that to work out).  I've outlined some of the key near-term levels and my reasonable expectations assuming the market maintains those levels:

In conclusion, presently, I'm inclined to lean toward further downside (same way I was leaning in the last update:  up, which we got, then down), but do keep in mind that we still do NOT have an impulsive decline -- so I might be violating my own rules in even suggesting further downside -- thus, in other words, trade safe.

SPX Update

Friday was an interesting session.  The market gapped up, then reversed and trended lower until the close, ultimately closing directly on the next important trend line:

So far, there have been no key overlaps by either bulls or bears.  I'm inclined to lean toward lower prices at this point, at least for the near-term -- but the market might not do so directly.  In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it rallies back toward 3007 first, then fails to crack the all-time high, then reverses back below last week's low:

(NOTE:  Typo:  "2007" should read "3007."  ("2007, 3007... whatever it takes."))

Shortest version possible:  If it continues rallying from here, then bulls will need to be cautious around the next upside inflection points of 2997 and 3007ish.  If it decline directly and breaks the trend line, then bears will need to be cautious around the (first) larger ABC inflection, near 2955.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Bears Still One Wave Short as Market Continues Wrestling with Major Inflection

Nothing has changed in terms of the big picture, as the market continues playing with the current major inflection zone.  In terms of the near-term, bears are a wave short of getting their needed impulsive decline (see second chart).

Near-term, this is my best guess as to how the wave breaks down (below).  INDU (not shown) counts similarly.  During yesterday's session, I expected SPX would probably tag 2970ish before rallying, given that the channel line was there, but it fell about 2 points shy -- which (for everyone's future reference) can signal selling exhaustion and/or heightened buying pressure (everyone is tripping over themselves to get in, so they jump the gun just a hair and buy prior to the market tagging support).

The classic TA chart from Wednesday had value on the way down, but if the decline was just a corrective ABC, will probably not have as much value on the way back up.  There's really no such thing as "resistance" in a bull market, except when INSIDE a corrective wave that's trending lower.  Once that countertrend move ends, near term resistance vanishes with it.  The same thing happens in reverse during a bear market ("no such thing as support, except during near-term countertrends").

In conclusion, bears need another low to get in the game for more than the short-term.  From a classic TA standpoint, the next intermediate support/resistance zones (first chart) still appear clear.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Market Still in Inflection Zone

Not much to add since last update, except to note that the market has at least encountered some resistance at the noted inflection zone:

Near-term, there's not much to analyze yet from an Elliott Wave perspective, so I've sketched some of the potential support/resistance zones below:

In conclusion, the market has reacted to the inflection zone, but so far, there's not much data to be gleaned from this (so far) minor reaction.  If bears can form an impulsive decline, then we'll have a little more to work with.  Trade safe.