SPX and INDU: Advantage Bears...

Short on time this morning, so let's get right to the charts.

SPX is starting to get that "all roads lead lower" look.  Bulls need to sustain a breakout over 2945 to start to potentially defuse this:

Bigger picture, we're still in an inflection zone, but I did want to take a look at what I perceive to be the "most bearish" scenario, which would lead to a trip below the 2018 lows:

In conclusion, bears seem to still have the edge at this point, so we'll continue to treat this as a down trend until proven otherwise.  Trade safe.

Forum Update

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FORUM ISSUE

Please note that the forum is temporarily down and will be restored as soon as possible (likely tonight).  In the meantime, feel free to utilize the Disqus comment section, which can be found immediately below the most recent SPX Update.

Thanks for your patience!

SPX Update

Last update noted that I was going to treat the high at 2939 SPX as ALL OF C until proven otherwise, and that approach paid off in Friday's session, as shorting the bounces turned out to be a gift for bears.

We're getting into another inflection zone here -- in fact, ES reached the first inflection zone during the overnight session (and sometimes that's good enough for the cash market, too):

[Note: TYPO "2915-25" should be "2815-25"]

In conclusion, ES has bounced from the overnight lows, so we're going to open higher.  My first instinct is that cash will probably (but I can't guarantee this) revisit those lows to test the inflection zone for itself.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: A Good Day to Despise Technology!

I typed a much longer article, then, a few minutes ago, hit the "backspace" key, apparently at the wrong time, and Blogger deleted ALL of it, then immediate autosaved ONE WORD in its place.

At this point, I don't have time to retype it all before the open.

Bottom line is that the market still has multiple options here:

In conclusion, ALL OF (C) could have completed, but there are other options at the moment, so we'll simply have to track this in real time as it unfolds.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: No Material Change, But a Few If/Then Targets Detailed

No material change from last update.  Both INDU and SPX tagged the expected price zones, and those zones did offer resistance, leading to a red day yesterday.  Futures this morning are suggesting a gap-up green open, but as of this writing, the futures have not yet exceeded Monday's high, so it will be interesting to see if the open is a gift for bears, or if the cash market can power through resistance.

I've noted some potential targets in the event bulls can sustain a breakout:

SPX is in a very similar position to INDU, with similar potential targets in the event of a breakout:

Big picture, everything moves much more slowly, and still no change regarding the recent inflection point -- which did, of course, offer strong resistance on the first attempt.  Which means that the market likewise "recognized" the inflection.

In conclusion, no real change since last update, except that the first noted near-term inflection zone has since been acknowledged by the market.  However, that is/was only a near-term zone with no guarantee it becomes more than that -- today should answer that question.  Trade safe.

INDU and SPX Updates

While I was uncertain if one more slight new low would be needed, Friday's rally makes it appear more likely that the higher degree wave (B or 2) did indeed bottom on Thursday (which is just odd enough that one day I may take the time to explain WHY it's odd) but either way, it seems the larger viewpoint (which was looking for a bottom in the general zone of a retest) was correct.

The next challenge levels for bulls appear fairly clear:

SPX has a similar confluence as its first near-term hurdle (note: TYPO -- the red X confluence is near 2925+/-, not 2825):

In the bigger picture, we're back to the black trend line, which, a little strangely, the market largely ignored the first time, at least in INDU:

In conclusion, if Friday's bottom was a B-wave, then this rally will ultimately end up being retraced, and SPX could aim as low as the 2400s.  If the bottom was ALL OF a complete correction off the all-time-high, then new highs are on deck.  At the moment, I'm leaning VERY SLIGHTLY toward the B-wave, but this is an extremely tight call, and we shouldn't be surprised if the market ends up running to new highs from here.  First step for bears will be to create an impulsive decline.  Trade safe.