SPX Update: Still No Change

Last update noted that we had the potential of three complete waves down to 3091 SPX, and thus that the market could end the decline at that level if it so chose... and, so far, that level has held.  As also noted in the prior update, bears need that level before we can consider the possibility of a larger impulsive decline (if that happens, then we might have a signal for the development of a more significant correction -- but as long as it doesn't happen, then the uptrend remains intact).

In that regard, no change since last update:

Bigger picture, I did want to call early attention to the two closest trend lines (support/resistance) at intermediate degree.  Those are worth being aware of if/when the market approaches either one:

In conclusion, no material change and the larger uptrend continues to remain intact for the time being (and for the foreseeable future).  Oh, and worth a mention:  Thanksgiving week is traditionally THE most bullish week of the year.  I don't view "almanac" type info as particularly tradeable, since it's always based on averages, but it doesn't hurt to be aware of it.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: "Backing and Filling" Hit

Last update suggested it might be time for some backing and filling, and Wednesday saw the sharpest decline we've seen in a while.

In conclusion, SPX has, thus far, fallen a little shy of the downside "guesstimate" zone of 3080ish, and it appears to have done so in three waves, so it's possible that's all the market wanted.  I'm not going to speculate at this stage, but will let the market lead -- thus, if bears can keep pushing lower, then we might start considering at least the potential of an impulsive turn from the all time high.  We'll see how the next couple sessions develop.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update noted that there had been multiple upside target captures and that we could see some backing and filling.  SPX then briefly popped higher before reversing:

Since we are dealing with a presumed third wave (and we are still presuming the larger trend is up), it is always possible that the rally will continue its relentless march northward immediately, so as noted, all bets are off if it powers through the recent high immediately.

In conclusion, we're continuing to respect the larger up trend, and merely picking nits along the way.  In the event of a larger impulsive decline, then we'll become alert to a larger pause or correction.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: First Bull Targets Captured

Well, a little to add since last update, in that the first target for wave (3) of the bull count from July has now been captured:

And SPX has FINALLY truly reached the black trend line discussed in prior updates.

In conclusion, given the multiple target captures, it would not be unusual to see some backing and filling at this point.  However, in the event the markets can power through these zones (less likely, but not impossible), then we could see a renewed push from the rally.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update suspected we might get a near-term pause in the rally, and the market has moved sideways since then, but futures tonight have broken above their prior high.  This suggests that either the pause was a consolidation for a new leg higher, or (if futures reverse directly), we could get an increasingly complex correction and another b-wave high.  Both options suggest the rally has farther to run -- either immediately (if the consolidation is over) or after a more complex correction (perhaps to the 3070ish zone).

INDU is still below the noted trend line.  Bulls still need to sustain a breakout over that, to help rule out the more complex corrective option.

In conclusion, still nothing much to add.  The trend remains up, and if the most bullish intermediate option is true, then will continue to do so for a while.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Pause Time?

Last update expected Friday's low to at least be tested, and it was, which could have satisfied the requirements of the pattern. It is interesting to note, however, that while SPX made a slight new high since then, INDU has not.  In fact, all INDU has done (so far) is rally back up to the noted blue trend line and get rejected from below.  Bulls need to get back above that line, or risk a test of the black trend line (for starters; we'll see how it develops if that happens -- but keep in mind that the LARGE b-wave high is still on the table for the moment).

SPX tested its low then made a new high at the 3100 zone (again).

It would not be surprising for SPX to test the lower blue trend line:

In conclusion, we continue to have developing signals of at least a temporary pause in the rally, if not more -- we'll see how things shake out from here.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

On Friday, several indices formed what appear to be small impulsive declines, and SPX and NDX may have formed b-wave lows at Friday's low to boot, so today we're alert to the potential of another wave down to break Friday's low.

INDU:

In conclusion, we have the markings of at least a potential near-term turn, but whether it will develop into anything larger is unknown at present.  Obviously, if Friday's low isn't at least tested, then the apparent impulse is off the table.  We'll see how today develops.  Trade safe.