SPX and TRAN: The Fed is Running Out of Paint

Last update noted that SPX had multiple options and no "defining waves to add clarity."  Today, we have a bit more clarity, and I've charted the two leading options on the chart below:

Bigger picture, even if the market takes the near-term bear option above, that won't immediately eliminate the intermediate bull options showing up later -- we'll need to see a larger impulsive decline to help put the bull options on a shorter leash, as discussed below:

Basically, big picture, we have two potential counts:

• We're wrapping up five waves at multiple degrees, for a massive top
• We've only wrapped up three waves at the current degree, with the potential of an extended fifth still on the table -- to be followed by a massive top (but extended fifths can run an outrageous distance before topping)

On the fundamental front, we all know the Fed and the Federal Government are painting themselves into an awful corner via debt and money printing -- the question is whether they've run out of paint just yet.  We know they will, and likely sooner than later... it's just a question of whether that day can be pushed off a bit further or not.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update noted the lower zones to watch, but SPX managed to find support just above the 3840-50 zone.  This remains a flummoxing market, which is in keeping with the gravity of the potentially-major inflection zone:

Near-term, there are multiple options at present and no "defining waves" to add clarity:

In conclusion, the market remains within a major inflection zone, which is likely why the near-term waves want to add as much ambiguity as they can.  For now, we'll continue watching support/resistance zones for next clues.  Trade safe.

SPX Update, and Half the NYA Chart

Last update noted that Stockcharts was incredibly annoying, and that read has since proven correct, as Stockcharts ONCE AGAIN butchered my NYA chart.  Thing is, this time I did a quick "test edit," and it saved it perfectly fine -- so that gave me confidence to do a full and detailed edit, which then saved exactly nothing.  So I went back and edited it piecemeal, saving each step as I went... but ran out of time again.

On the market front, last updated discussed the SPX 3950s as next meaningful resistance, and the market obliged with a strong rejection from that zone:

Here's what I was able to recreate of the NYA chart (for the third time, now).  Not everything I wanted to share (I have twice annotated a detailed wave count, which Stockcharts has deleted both times), but I'll take what I can get at this point:

As an aside, does anyone else think the figures represented on the graph below are... for lack of a better term... completely insane?  Apparently we're not even paying lip-service to the concept of being fiscally-responsible anymore.  In my opinion, Bernanke's original QE (2009 through The End of Civilization) seems to have been the very embodiment of a "slippery slope."  

As a result of QE, the new thinking seems to be:  "After all, since we got away with that, then why not try to get away with XYZ?" 

Ideas have consequences.

In conclusion, SPX stalled at resistance and dropped about 54 points down to blue support near 3900.  Next bull/bear zones remain noted on the SPX chart (3/22 and 3/24 annotations).  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Thanks Again, Stockcharts

On Friday, SPX captured the 3880s discussed in the prior updates:

In addition to this chart, I drew up a really nice chart of NYA, which took most of my time... and Stockcharts went back to its old tricks and saved exactly NONE of it.  I don't have time to recreate it, so it may have to wait for next update.

In conclusion, SPX would probably look better with another low (potentially to test the 3870s), but I can't guarantee anything, as we did already test the 3880s, which was the next inflection point.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

Last update expected a possible test of the 3880s, but the Fed instead caused a fakeout higher first, which again stalled at resistance (second chart).  We may get our test of the 3880s yet, though:

Resistance acted as resistance again:

In conclusion, this market is more fun than a bag of gristle, with the wave pattern still open to multiple interpretations at the moment.  Presently, it looks like it may want to continue lower before coming to its next decision point.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

Last update "kept it simple," and that approach seemed to have been a good one, as, on the near-term chart, support held and indeed led to new highs:

While on the larger view chart, next resistance is acting as resistance (at least, on its first test):

Beyond what's on the charts (and the discussions of last few updates), there really isn't much to add at this point.  Keep in mind that today is a Fed day.  As an aside, please note that if you registered for the forum on Friday/Saturday/Sunday, you may need to reregister at the new URL (listed at the old forum), as I upgraded all the software due to sudden host issues with the old software.  This also set me back on confirming registrations, so please be patient -- thanks.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Keeping It Simple

Last update noted the options; today we're going to keep it simple and give our attention to the next trend lines.  We'll start with the near-term chart, and some relevant downside zones, then look at the upside zones in the second chart:

To the upside, we have overhead channel resistance:

Bigger picture, bulls held the level bears needed (noted on March 5), and managed new all-time-highs rather quickly from that key support zone:

In conclusion, the next zones to watch seem to be fairly clear.  We're still in territory where a standard fifth could end, BUT an extended fifth rally could occur instead... so we're taking it day by day until the market reveals its intentions become more plainly.  Trade safe.