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Monday, May 22, 2023

SPX Sidedate: (Well, it's not an "up"-date, and it's not a "down"-date, so...)

SPX changed by a whopping 6 points on Friday, leaving everything in the exact same position.  To the point that there's really no reason to even publish an update, frankly.  

Here's Friday's update again, which is unchanged.

That said, "market didn't do anything" doesn't mean I don't still look through my chart book to see if I missed anything or if any new clues cropped up in other markets.  I did that, as I always do, and happened to stumble across this chart from more than two months ago:


Other than that, there's nothing else to add since Friday.  This is the most exasperating market I believe I've seen in at least a decade, maybe longer.  I've even heard rumors that the next dictionary will feature a picture of the early-2023 stock market next to the definition of "ennui,".  Trade safe.

Friday, May 19, 2023

SPX, NYA, INDU: SPX Finally Does a Thing

Last two updates, I thought there was a chance SPX might head down to test the 4090ish zone again, but that didn't happen, with the market finally breaking a bit higher instead.  This is the first semi-real progress SPX has made in a while, and it does change the position of the potential blue 2?:



It's interesting to note how much NYA is lagging:



And how much INDU is lagging:


This lag suggests two diametrically opposed possibilities:  Either SPX only has a little more upside, and the rest of the market will drag it back down -- or SPX is headed toward at least Red 2 and that will drag the rest of the market up.  NYA may become particularly germane here -- IF it can break above the red c/3 high, as it would then need to go on to form 5 waves from the 15055 low.  Right now, because of the divergences across markets, it's a bit early to determine how significant SPX's breakout may or may not be, so how these markets collectively behave during the upcoming sessions will be important toward drawing firmer conclusions one way or the other about the larger time frames.   Trade safe.

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

SPX Update: ...

SPX followed last update's blue path fairly well, even peaking at the time of day I'd suggested on Monday's chart.  I would still suspect that it's headed below 4098, which does have the potential to turn more bearish, as long as bears continue holding 4155.



Nothing else to add, so trade safe.

(If anyone missed last update, I mentioned:  I have a son graduating high school this week, and I have family in town for the next couple weeks, so unless there's actually something new to say during that time, the updates will probably be brief. Thanks for your understanding.)

Monday, May 15, 2023

SPX Update: More Fun than a Mayonnaise Popsicle

Nothing to add to the last 283 updates, since SPX held the next semi-meaningful level.  I suspect we may see something like the blue path outlined below, but I'm far from certain of that, as the pattern here is best described as "a seemingly-mindless blob."


There is, of course, nothing to add about the intermediate term, given that the market went nowhere for the entirety of last week, after going nowhere for 2023, after going nowhere since April of 2022 -- so if you require intermediate context, please refer back to prior updates.  There's really only so many different ways I can say the same thing, and I believe at this point, I have exhausted all of them (at least, short of translating into new languages!).  Trade safe.

p.s.- I have a son graduating high school this week, and I have family in town for the next couple weeks, so unless there's actually something new to say during that time, the updates will probably be brief.  Thanks for your understanding.


Friday, May 12, 2023

SPX: More Exciting Than a Shoe Full of Spiders

The reviews are in!  Critics are raving over SPX!

"Annoying and boring." -- Siskel and Ebert

"An insufferable sideways grind."  -- The Wall Street Journal

"Is this thing even on?" -- Mike Tyson, just before punching a hole in his screen

The action-devoid sleeper is here!  Pre-order your tickets NOW.  Don't miss: 

SPX:  The Revenge of something something whatever zzzzzzzzzz...

Now playing at a theater near you!


So, yeah.  Still not a lot to add here.  The market has traded sideways since the last update, and possibly since the dawn of time.  Here's the updated SPX chart:




Er... wait a second.  I think that's last week's chart.

Yeah, it is, sorry.  HERE'S the updated SPX chart:




As we can see on the chart above... hang on, that's the wrong time scale.  I didn't mean to use an hourly chart.

Okay, here:



And there we have it!  In conclusion, there's still nothing to add and, at the market's current pace, there may never be anything to add ever again.  Trade safe. 

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

SPX Update: Nothing Lasts Forever... or Does It?

Still no change to the intermediate charts (I know, this is surprising after a year in a trading range!), so I'm not going to publish them today, and we'll just focus on the near-term chart:


Even on the near-term chart, there's nothing to add to the past two updates, so I simply reiterated them.  This is just kind of where we are with this market right now.  Don't blame me, I'm just the messenger.  Trade safe.

Monday, May 8, 2023

SPX and NYA: Sorry, I Ran Out of Titles Six Months Ago

Last update discussed that SPX and NYA had both reached support, and both markets proceeded to form sizeable bounces from that support.  I want to say that puts us in trickier territory, but the reality is, this market has been stuck in a trading range for a year.  So it's all tricky territory lately, and don't let any temptation toward complacency (in either direction) convince you otherwise.

Year-long trading ranges are the type of thing that could give Freddy Kruger himself nightmares.

There's no change to either NYA or SPX at the intermediate level.


Near-term, I outlined a bear case (the bull case is obvious and was already discussed last update):


In conclusion, so far, the market has bounced twice at major support.  As noted several times previously, bears still need to break that to get anything going.  On the flip side, bulls have yet to claim the next key resistance levels, so they can't claim victory yet, either.  And on another note, if you've survived this year-long trading range without blowing up your account entirely, pat yourself on the back.  When the market treads water, often the best we can hope for is to do the same.  Trade safe.