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Wednesday, September 11, 2024

SPX and COMPQ Updates

No real change from last update, but I have sketched-up some potential near-term upside targets for SPX:



COMPQ probably still best illustrates the zone bulls need to continue holding:



Not much else to add.  Over the years, I've commented a number of times when the update falls on September 11, to the point that I feel like anything I try to add here today would feel contrived and trite, so I won't add any commentary beyond what I've already written in the past -- but I likewise did not want the day to pass without any acknowledgement.  Trade safe.

Monday, September 9, 2024

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Dueling Markets

In the prior update, a hypothetical guy with a gun forced me to give a prediction, so my reply was: "I'd probably lean toward saying it looks slightly more likely that it may need more downside to form any sort of complete wave."

And that turned out to be a hit.  Now we have two markets trying to make our lives difficult, so let's get right to it.  First is INDU:



Dueling with INDU is SPX:



And the tie-breaker may be COMPQ, and what it does with the blue trend line:


In conclusion, INDU appears to be 3-waves down SO FAR, while SPX might be 5-waves down, though the razor-thin margin of the prior high vs. the ATH means it might also be 3-down so far.  Some part of me wants to just flat out declare the bull market as over -- but another part of me wants to caveat that heavily because there is no technical confirmation of that yet, and it's entirely possible we've only just entered the topping "process," which could take months.  And I'd also note that we're in the ballpark of a downside inflection point, given that INDU and SPX could both be completed waves to the downside (plus/minus) and COMPQ just tagged a major support zone -- so if it's going to head back up, it could do so from here.  COMPQ may provide the next big picture clues.  Trade safe.

Friday, September 6, 2024

SPX and INDU: Put the Weapon Down, Son

Since last update, SPX rallied back into the zone of the blue resistance line and was rejected.  After that, it went on to form something that's best described as opaque garbage.  The annotation below explains the conundrum:



INDU briefly broke its support line, but looks like it's going to whipsaw that directly:


In conclusion, there's not a lot of clarity in these charts, but if I had a gun to my head and had to say something, I'd probably lean toward saying it looks slightly more likely that it may need more downside to form any sort of complete wave.  But that's really only because some hypothetical person is holding a gun to my head.  If I hadn't invented that person, I might not say anything other than "wait and see," so don't hold me to it, I'm under hypothetical duress here!  Have a great weekend and trade safe.

Wednesday, September 4, 2024

SPX and INDU: Inflection Zone Acts as Resistance on First Test

Last update noted that we were getting into an inflection zone, and on Tuesday, the market put an exclamation point on that.

Let's look at the charts to see if bears can continue celebrating, or if they need to tread cautiously for the near-term, starting with INDU:


Next up is SPX:


So, as we can see on the near-term charts, things aren't locked down for bears just yet.  SPX is only three waves down (at present) and INDU has only retested its prior breakout, which has held (again: so far).  Since we can only trade what we see, what we see is a market that's been rejected at a potentially major inflection zone, but has yet to indicate whether it's going to make another run back up into that zone.

Bigger picture, we see the nature of the current inflection zone clearly -- but we need to keep in mind that big inflection zones have big ranges, too, so there's plenty of room for INDU to run up to new highs again and still be within the inflection zone.


In conclusion, bears had a fun day yesterday, but they haven't yet proven they're ready to take over (since they've only formed three waves down so far) and thus we can't yet rule out another run up.  We'll see how things develop for the remainder of the week.  Trade safe.

Friday, August 30, 2024

INDU Update: SPX? We Don't Need No Stinkin' SPX

Last update projected that INDU would need at least one more fourth wave correction, followed by another wave up to new all-time highs, and that has since happened:


As the chart notes, it's getting trickier now, which stinks because I won't be able to devote as much time to goofy jokes, since the market will become less predictable and there will now be fewer updates that say "no real change" and that allow me to reprint the same charts but with smiley-face stickers on them.

It's also getting tricky at long-term scale now, as the market appears to finally be approaching an inflection point that has significant and real MAJOR top potential:


In conclusion, the odds probably slightly favor one more 4/5 unwind still left, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that, especially since we're getting into the ballpark of a MAJOR (yes, I'm capitalizing it again) inflection zone.  Don't forget Monday is Labor Day, so the market is closed because it's disruptive to have traders going into labor right in the middle of the exchange floor.  Trade safe.

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

SPX and INDU: Getting Closer

Since last update, INDU made a new all-time high, as expected:



This SPX chart is a wonder to behold:


In conclusion, presuming we're dealing with a simple impulsive rally off the August lows, SPX and other indices should need roughly the same 4/5 unwinds that INDU needs, so that chart serves as a reasonable proxy for the broad market right now.  We should finally get a decent correction again once those waves complete.  Trade safe.

Monday, August 26, 2024

SPX and INDU: From the Dark Depths of Jackson Hole

On Friday, Powell wandered out to the microphone from the dark underground depths of Jackson Hole, appearing drunk, grabbed the mic forcefully and muttered something about "too many lost socks" before passing out, still holding the microphone and drooling.  

The market wasn't sure what to make of this, so it traded sideways for the day.

Which means, you guessed it, nothing has really changed from the updates of the past few weeks.  Although, INDU has now made a new high to match NYA:



SPX appears poised to resolve its previously-discussed-fourth-wave to the upside (which is/was the expected outcome of a fourth wave down, of course, as it's followed by a fifth wave up):


In conclusion, not much else to add other than -- assuming we're in a simple straightforward impulse rally -- a reminder it still looks like SPX and INDU will need at least one or two more 4/5 unwinds higher before completing the wave up from the 3/c low.