SPX Update (-ish)

The market was closed the past two sessions, at least in spirit.  It went nowhere, though apparently it was open, technically speaking.

Accordingly, there's really not much to add, except to note that if this is indeed the triangle I speculated about in Monday's update, the last two sessions are what you'd expect to see.

Do be aware that there's one wacky way to count this that would have the abcd all done on the triangle and just e remaining before a breakout.  Lower probability but not impossible.  Below 5800 would take that off the table.

In conclusion, there's no real reason to update any charts at all, given the last two sessions, but I updated the SPX chart anyway.  Since nothing happened, there's nothing to add, and please refer back to the prior update for more details if needed.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA, INDU: Interesting Times

I'm going to mainly let the charts do the talking today.  Let's start with COMPQ, which finally broke above its red resistance line.  For a minute, anyway.

Next is NYA, mainly to illustrate why things are getting a little more interesting now:

Next is INDU, whose near-term outlook is the same:

Finally, SPX, with one potential outlined:

In conclusion, in my perfect world, SPX would go on to form a triangle fourth wave here, launch out, hit its target, and reverse.  If it breaks down before then, then there are still options for that decline to be a C-wave, but we'll have to start watching things more carefully, because, as we know (and as illustrated on the NYA chart), we are likely into a larger fifth wave.  And my old personal adage is, "Never bank on fifth waves."  For now, we'll continue to presume there are still higher prices out there, but I did want to illustrate that it's not a great place for complacency.  Trade safe.

INDU and COMPQ Updates

Since last update, the market declined slightly, but still not a ton to add to the last few weeks of updates.

COMPQ dropped down to its support line, which has held so far:

INDU fell back through blue for the moment, but is holding the black channel:

In conclusion, as noted for weeks, there's probably still at least one more 4/5 unwind needed to new highs, so we may have just seen (or still be within) that fourth wave, with five up to new highs still to come.  After that, things will start to get a little trickier again.  Of course, if there are breakdowns before then, then either a deeper fourth wave is unfolding or something more bearish -- but we'll worry about that if it becomes necessary.  Trade safe.

INDU and COMPQ: "No SPX for You!"

As those of you who own tape measures have no doubt noticed, the market has gone nowhere since Oct. 14, choosing instead to grind sideways.  Which means there's still nothing to add, really.  Which means:

So today will simply focus on a zone below the market and a zone above the market (2nd chart):

COMPQ's relevant zone is above the market:

That's it, those are the next two zones to watch, as they have been for the last couple weeks.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: A Look at the Long Term

The last few updates have talked about SPX likely still needing to unwind higher and blah blah blah but let's talk about something interesting today.  Over the weekend, a reader requested I update the long-term SPX chart from March 11, and by golly, I thought that was a good idea.

On that chart, I had mentioned (in March) it appeared we might be in an extended fifth higher, whose textbook target was 6380-6450.  And while that seemed kind of ludicrous at the time, SPX isn't so far off from those levels now.

So what would happen if we were in that count?  Well, we'd head higher into the election (as I mentioned several updates ago), maybe beyond, then we'd peak and head back to ~5120.  Then we'd retest the high.  Then we'd drop like a rock to ~3810.

So that would be interesting and fun.  But let's see how things go in the meantime, as COMPQ is still a little bit of a thorn in bulls' paws:

In conclusion, not much to add to the near-term discussions from the past couple weeks, but it's probably a good time to return focus to the long-term count and keep an eye on how that develops.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Something Interesting to Watch

Last update suggested the decline SPX was experiencing was likely a 4th wave, and the new high since then has confirmed that.  It probably needs at least one more 4/5 unwind:

COMPQ is still lagging.  An interesting scenario would be if SPX managed to unwind another 4/5 while COMPQ still failed to make a new high.  Something like that might put bulls at least on guard, were it to occur.  On the flip side, if COMPQ were to clear its prior high convincingly, then there could be weeks of upside still remaining -- so how it behaves here is of interest to both bulls and bears.

In conclusion, SPX performed as expected, so not much else new to add.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Test Time

Last update noted that INDU had finally cleared its long-term rising resistance line, which is bullish as long as bulls are able to hold above that zone:

SPX could be in one of its presumed fourth waves, but if it overlaps the black horizontal KO, then that would be a warning sign for bulls:

Interestingly, the outlier chart is still an outlier, as COMPQ has so far failed to clear its prior high.  Getting above that high would give bulls more breathing room, because below it (where we are now) still leaves open options for a much deeper decline, potentially comparable to the July/August decline:

In conclusion, this is bulls' first test since the breakout, and the zones to watch seem reasonably clear, so we'll see how they handle it.  Trade safe.