SPX and COMPQ: Warshing the Fed

So today is a Fed day (there are probably now at least 40 updates that begin with those exact words), and it's interesting to note that the pattern has turned bi-modal right on schedule.  We can see this on the SPX chart below:

COMPQ is also attempting to dissolve my prior reticence about the black B-wave being complete.  It's not entirely there yet, but it's approaching the edge:

I think the biggest issue for bulls here is that the COMPQ count, if it's correct, wants to pull COMPQ lower one way or another.  Five weeks ago, when I first published that count, it seemed almost ridiculous in light of the strong up-move we were (then) right in the midst of... but now that the market has burned off all its prior upward momentum, it's a lot easier to countenance.

So I think the takeaway here is that bulls should be watching their backs pretty carefully right now.  I can't go so far as to say it's a lock for bears... but this market's ice is thin.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Below Resistance, Above Support (for now)

Today's update is being published early because I'm too exhausted to stay up any later.  I've been dealing with electricians and utility companies and general house-related disasters all weekend and am running on fumes right now.  On the bright side, there does finally seem to be light at the end of the tunnel.  Hopefully it's not an oncoming train.

Last update said:

[T]he first resistance line is black, so bulls will need to sustain trade above that to prove their mettle.  Conversely, bears will need to sustain trade beneath the falling blue trend line to prove theirs.

SPX then rallied up to black and got rejected, so bulls haven't proven their case yet:

The chart pretty well explains the situation, so probably no need to rehash that here.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: The Value of Proper Trend Lines

 In the last update, I wrote:

While it's fun to speculate, in reality, this remains a situation with multiple complex options, including WXYs and potential expanded flats at two different wave degrees.  In such situations, I prefer to focus on trend lines and just let the market show us which route it's decided on.

The following chart was then attached:

SPX fell through black straight down to the blue horizontal.  And as of the time of this writing, ES futures are indicating a big bounce off the blue horizontal, effectively demonstrating the value of this approach.  Note the WXY is a corrective pattern that preserves the larger uptrend -- but the first resistance line is black, so bulls will need to sustain trade above that to prove their mettle.  Conversely, bears will need to sustain trade beneath the falling blue trend line to prove theirs.  Not much else to add beyond that.  Trade safe. 

SPX Update: Your Move, Mr. Market

The market hasn't moved much since last update, leaving everything in basically the same place it was then.

While it's fun to speculate, in reality, this remains a situation with multiple complex options, including WXYs and potential expanded flats at two different wave degrees.  In such situations, I prefer to focus on trend lines and just let the market show us which route it's decided on:

Not much else to say that wasn't already said last week.  Refer back to those updates as needed for more detail.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: We're Going to Need Your Keys

Last update noted that SPX had come within 3 points of its downside target zone, and bulls have staged a solid bounce from that low.  The rally ran straight up to the blue trend line I drew last update:

Nothing to add to this second chart:

This new chart is worth including, though, for those who aren't already intimately familiar with the technical minutiae of Elliott Wave:

Beyond that, there is a not-insignificant chance the current rally is wave 5 of the wave coming up from 7313.  That doesn't guarantee it ends immediately or anything... but it does mean that bulls will want to keep their wits about them (just in case it does) and not be off drinking celebratory bull juice in need of a designated driver.  Of course, this is not to imply that, even if this is wave 5, it would necessarily end the entire bull market -- but it could lead to a sharper correction (and we can never rule out that such a moment won't, in fact, end the bull market -- so there's that).  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Meaningful Trend Lines

Last update noted that bulls had failed to overlap their key level, leaving new lows on the table.  Bears took advantage of that and took SPX down toward its next downside target zone:

Bigger picture, there are a couple meaningful trendlines nearby:

Not much else to add beyond that.  No, I still don't have power.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Whose Line is it Anyway?

(For those following the latest episodes of My Net Zero Life: on the plus side, this weekend Hawaiian Electric finally came to our house... on the negative side, they promptly informed us that our service cable had been ripped out through the weatherhead and that they couldn't reconnect our power until a licensed electrician repaired the damage.  They also told us our situation was extremely hazardous (good to know that TWO WEEKS IN) and finally disconnected the live power line lying across the driveway.  So we're still an unknown number of days from having power again, though after a million phone calls, I did find an electrician who can at least look at our house early this week, so we'll see how that goes.  Along those lines (no pun intended), I'm completely exhausted right now -- but I promised an update today.  Forgive me for keeping it short.)

Since last update, SPX stalled just shy of the level it needs:

Basically, SPX has left both options live for now -- but at least the levels it needs next are clear.  Not much else to add beyond that.  Trade safe.