SPX and INDU: INDU Confirms Prediction from Nov. 14

Since last update, SPX has done very little, leaving the outlook unchanged across the board here -- which is to say:

1. As long as key long-term support holds, no reason to be bearish (see this update for the most recent LT chart).

2. Near-term zones are as noted.

3. A complex expanded flat is always possible, but not necessarily probable.

Worth noting that INDU did finally confirm my read from November 14:

SPX has so far held its return into the red channel, testing it and bouncing higher.

Near-term support is unchanged:

In conclusion, to get even the near-term ball rolling, bears would need to break down out of the red channel from the middle chart.  If they did that, then we'd watch the next near term support zones -- and if those broke, then the complex expanded flat would be on the table.  Bigger picture, I'm still not seeing anything that makes me particularly bearish, especially as long as the key long-term breakout holds.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Not Much to Add

The market hasn't done much this week, and recent updates have been pretty thorough, so there's not too much to add -- though I have highlighted some near-term zones worth keeping an eye on:

On the near-term chart, I point out a confluence (upper right red annotation) that's worth watching:

Not much else to add beyond that.  SPX always has the option to continue higher directly, but if it starts dropping, those are the first zones to watch.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Update: NYA Confirms Prediction from Nov. 14

Since last update, SPX inched higher, but the bigger news it that NYA made a new high, finally confirming my read from three weeks ago:

Nothing to add to the big picture SPX outlook:

Near-term, we should at least be aware of this possibility:

In conclusion, I do want to reiterate that the black lines on the final SPX chart are not a prediction, just an optional path the market could take.  If it avoids that path, then it will just continue higher directly.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: So Far, Just More of the Same

Not much has happened in terms of price since last update, but SPX has continued holding its key near-term support zones, which is bullish as long as it continues:

Intermediate term:

And long-term:

In conclusion, to reiterate my longer-term stance since September:  As long as SPX continues holding the breakout over blue and black in the long-term chart (final chart), there's just nothing for bears to get excited about, and the trend remains up.  For perspective, the ~9000 SPX target remains live as long as that breakout holds.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Between a Rock and a Soft Place

The market's done essentially nothing since last update, so it's about time for my ~monthly reminder about the chart note (I don't even need to update the October annotation) from September:

Near-term, for smoothest sailing, bulls would like to continue holding above blue:

But really, the red line on this next chart is probably a bit more significant than the blue line on that near-term chart, though they're not too far apart:

So those are the near-term support zones -- meanwhile, what stalled the market here is the line that I called out last update:

In conclusion, SPX is paused between old long-term resistance and near-term support, so we'll see who blinks first.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, and SPX's Post-Thanksgiving History Back to 1930

Let's start with an interesting chart, which will be a big hit with bulls.  Going back to 1930, this past week marked the 16th time SPX had a +2% Thanksgiving week.  The 13 month performance following +2% Thanksgiving weeks has been positive in all 15 prior cases -- with the average thirteen-month gain being 22.9%:

Next, SPX has continued to rally since I issued warning on November 21 that the decline "may be done or nearly done":

NYA has technically (if not officially) confirmed the pattern as interpreted on November 14:

SPX is back into (old) red, but hasn't tested that yet:

Finally, the chart below is worth bringing forward for two reasons:

In conclusion, the market has reached a potential resistance zone, so it may react to that.  Long term, if history is any guide, we might need to continue keeping the "fifth wave extension of a fifth wave extension" option in mind for the time being, but we'll see how things develop from here.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: NYA Captures Upside Target

Last Friday, I noted that SPX had captured its first downside target, while NYA came very close to its target.  I also noted that it appeared to be an ending diagonal and that it was probably done or close to it.  Whether SPX follows through to retest the ATH or not -- we do at least know now for certain that those warnings marked a tradeable bottom:

We can see above that SPX has broken out from the diagonal boundaries, which is a good sign for bulls -- but bigger picture, it's facing the old red trend channel (which it looks likely to clear -- the test will be whether it can hold that):

NYA has captured the upside targets I provided on Monday:

In conclusion, bulls shouldn't get complacent -- but so far, SPX is performing in line with the expanded flat I've been tracking since November 14.  Be aware that the bear side of the coin would be that the recent bottom was the A/1 low with the current bounce being B/2.  I'm still assigning that lower odds, but it was a very weird pattern heading in to the ATH (as I noted in real time), so it's not something I can rule out.  

On another note, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!  As is the 14-year tradition, there'll be no update on Black Friday's short session and the updates will return on Monday.  Hope everyone has a pleasant holiday -- in the meantime, trade safe.