SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Another Target Capture

Since last update, SPX captured its first downside target zone (immediately after capturing its upside target zones!):

I didn't update the COMPQ chart, because I didn't want to redo all the annotations (which delete themselves any time I update it), but this appears to be an impulse down.  The bull counterargument here would be that said impulse is wave c of an expanded flat, and that's not impossible:

The bear counter would be the long-term, which continues to look iffy for bulls:

INDU has given a bearish signal with its breakdown and failed back-test of blue, but not yet overlapped black horizontal support, so it's only a partial signal so far and thus still can be subject to being reversed:

In conclusion, the simplest version of things is this:  SPX reached its first downside target and bounced; if bulls can continue that bounce, then we can't rule out new ATHs coming.  But, if bears can sustain a breakdown at yesterday's low, things are going to start to look bleaker for bulls.  Worth noting that yesterday's bounce sure felt like a short-covering rally.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Upside Targets Captured

Last update anticipated that no matter what pattern SPX was in, it would likely head toward two possible targets, both of which it then captured before reversing:

Futures are suggesting a new swing low for SPX -- if that holds and if COMPQ does the same, then COMPQ in particular is going to start to look pretty impulsive off its suspected wave 5 high:

INDU has been the market that's causing misgivings, but if it can overlap the black line, and especially the red line, it's going to have a more bearish technical look (though then we'll have to worry about the ATH as a b-wave, we'll burn that bridge when we get there).

In conclusion, SPX captured its upside targets and reversed.  COMPQ hit noted resistance and reversed and will start to look impulsive with a new low.  INDU is still a bit of an outlier, but maybe that will resolve soon, too, we'll see.  Bears do still need to sustain new lows in COMPQ and SPX first, though.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Inflection Zone at Friday's Low

On Friday, I let three charts do the talking, while the SPX chart noted that the decline could be closing in on completion.  Futures are currently indicating a big bounce from Friday's low, so here's the updated state of things:

COMPQ ended up dropping right to its new "or 4?" label before bouncing:

In conclusion, Friday's low (give or take) is probably a pretty important inflection point, since it could mark three down in COMPQ and the bottom of the c-wave of an expanded flat correction in SPX.  If bulls are still in the near-term driver's seat, this is an opportunity for them to run it back up to new ATHs.  If bears can instead sustain trade below Friday's low, it might indicate a shift, as that would start to look like 5 down in COMPQ, at least.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Three Charts and the Truth

Last update discussed the conundrum, today I want to drill down and use the charts to illustrate it, and to discuss some things that may help map the way going forward -- starting with INDU.  INDU's near-term pattern is one of the main things keeping my bearish angels in check right now; the annotation explains why:

SPX discusses the options:

And with any luck, COMPQ may help point the way going forward:

In conclusion, those three charts probably say just about everything there is to say right now.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU Updates

SPX hasn't really gone anywhere (except sideways) since last update, so we still have a situation where:

1. On the one hand, there are potentially enough waves up for a decent correction to begin from here.
2. On the other hand, the various indices all seem to be doing their own thing, so one can see whatever one wants to, based on which market they pick and their preexisting bias.

This lack of agreement between markets continues to make me uncomfortable from an analytical standpoint.  A look at the following three charts may help shed more light on why, starting with INDU:

Next, COMPQ:

Finally, a near-term chart of SPX:

We can see that INDU is flirting with a price point (not quite there yet, but close) where it would tend to imply the rally continues over the long run, though it does allow for a sizeable correction in the meantime.  COMPQ hasn't made a new high above the 5 label, but it's still unclear if it needs another 4/5 unwind.  Even SPX at a near-term level is about as clear as coffee.

So, at this point, I'll simply remind readers that we've had a solid handle on the market here for multiple months now -- but, as the famous Kenny Rogers song says, "You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em," etc.  Sometimes we just have to wait the market out for a minute, since the market (collectively) isn't behaving in a way that makes bold calls appropriate just yet, in my opinion.  Trade safe.  

SPX Update: Hitting the Pause Button

On Friday, I expressed some skepticism about the decline in SPX due to the recent behavior in NYA and INDU, and it turned out that skepticism was justified, as SPX then went on directly to a new high. 

Of note, INDU and NYA also went on to break their prior swing highs, which is probably not ideal for bears, but we'll see if they can hold those breakouts or not.  Be aware that if they can hold their breakouts, I'll probably have to publish a more bullish intermediate count (one I was already thinking of publishing, but that would seal it).

Because of all that, for the moment, I want to take us back to basics in order to keep us focused on the present:

That's the only chart I'm going to publish today, because when the market starts acting a little funky, it can be a good idea to step back from our preconceived notions for a minute and just watch and wait.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ and NYA and INDU and...

In the prior update, I was leaning toward SPX and COMPQ still needing another high, which they both got.  Yay.  To boot, they then both reversed exactly as they should have, since that wave was expected to be a micro 5th wave to complete a larger wave.  Yay.  Again.

But then we have NYA and INDU and BKX (et al), which all rallied yesterday.  Normally, I like to see something approaching agreement between markets, especially near turn zones.  Because when every market is instead doing its own thing, it starts to feel more like a box full of agitated cats, and it makes me uncomfortable, like trying to sit on a bean bag chair filled with olive oil while dressed in a tuxedo and holding a box full of agitated cats.  In other words, it's hard for bears to declare any sort of confident victory just yet.  

Of course, all that could change tomorrow or Monday, if INDU and NYA were suddenly to reverse dramatically.  But that hasn't happened yet -- or, as Kamala Harris would say:  “So I think it’s very important... for us, at every moment in time, and certainly this one, to see the moment in time in which we exist and are present, and to be able to contextualize it, to understand where we exist in the history and in the moment as it relates not only to the past, but the future.”  

(I really wanted to use the altered quote there, because it's funnier, but she didn't actually say: “Today is today. And yesterday was today yesterday. Tomorrow will be today tomorrow. So live today, so the future today will be as the past today as it is tomorrow.”  No matter; the actual quote will suffice.)

Anyway, the point is, if I remember correctly, that there's not much agreement between markets right now, so bears might want to stay on their toes.

Below, we can see COMPQ did exactly what it was supposed to:

As did SPX:

But then we have INDU:

And NYA:

Put 'em together and what have you got?  Bibbidi-bobbidi-boo.  Which, in this case, actually appears to be roughly correct.  

So, in conclusion, this COULD be the start of a meaningful turn... but the lack of agreement between markets, at least "at this moment in time in which we exist and are present," fails to inspire confidence so far.  Accordingly, I'm going to pause a moment and wait to see what NYA and INDU, etc., do next before slapping numbers and projections on these charts.  Trade safe.