Friday, March 22, 2019

SPX, INDU, NDX: Chaos on a Limb

Last update was looking for further downside, which we got... but due to yesterday's rally, the charts have been thrown into borderline chaos.  Despite that, I'll go out on a limb and make a clear call -- but I'll caveat by saying that my confidence isn't terribly high, and in the charts that follow SPX, I'll discuss why that is.

First, here's my "best guess," via SPX:

Two charts of NDX:

The second shows why, via classic TA, bears probably need a turn immediately:

Finally, INDU has opened up a few more options for itself.

In conclusion, I'd prefer to at least see a break of Wednesday's low (at least in SPX and INDU, not necessarily NDX) before too much else happens.  If bulls instead continue to sustain this breakout, then all bets are off.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

SPX, NDX, INDU: Bear Hope?

On March 4, I listed the potential resistance zones for SPX, and the second zone I called out was "2852ish."  Yesterday, SPX hit a high of 2852 directly on the nose, then reversed strongly.  This, combined with INDU (more on this in a moment) gives bears at least a fighting chance.

Let's get right to the charts:

NDX also stalled in its noted resistance zone:

And INDU looks like a three-wave rally -- so far.  If bulls sustain trade above yesterday's high and the February high, then all bear bets would likely be off for the very near term.  But as of this moment, it is what it is and has to be treated accordingly.

(Basically, if INDU sustains trade north of the 2/B label, then we might be dealing with those first three waves as a bull nest, i.e.- 1-2 up, i-ii up.  Until that happens, though, it looks like an ABC rally.)

In conclusion, this may be the best shot bears have had in a while.  No guarantees, but as long as bears hold the noted levels, we may see the near-term shift into their favor in the not-too-distant future.  Trade safe.

Monday, March 18, 2019

SPX and NDX Updates

The market is still flirting with resistance, which is layered higher throughout this current price zone.  I've detailed this on the NDX chart below, and presumably if NDX encounters significant resistance, then so will everything else.

Near-term, NDX bonked its head on the median channel again.  Keep in mind that if it does sustain a breakout there, it would commonly run toward the top of the channel, which is one of the reasons why we're treating the blue lines on the chart above as speculative until we see an impulsive decline:

SPX ran to a resistance zone that I outlined a couple weeks ago (on 3/4), the resistance zones noted beyond that are similar to those noted on the first NDX chart.

In conclusion, bears still have nothing definitive to sink their teeth (or claws?) into.  While the market is facing several resistance zones, we have to continue to presume the trend is up until we see an impulsive decline.  Trade safe.

Friday, March 15, 2019

SPX and NDX: Minor Inflection Point

Last update noted that "Bear C" appeared to be complete in SPX, which implied a new swing high was forthcoming, and SPX broke the prior swing high (2816) with ease during the session.  The charts also indicted resistance just beyond that level, and SPX proceeded to tag that resistance and has remained stalled since then.

On the chart above, we can see that, in the recent past anyway, this resistance zone has been fairly formidable -- SPX was rejected once here in October, twice in November, and once at the beginning of March.  The more resistance (or support) is tested, the weaker it becomes, because each time the market tests such a level, more sellers (or buyers, for support) are used up, theoretically leaving fewer participants to sell or buy that zone next time around.

NDX also tagged its noted resistance zone, and also stalled:

In conclusion, the market is testing an important resistance zone, which makes this something of an inflection point.  If bulls can power through and hold above, then they could get a new near-term lease on life.  If they can't, then we can't say the charts didn't warn of the possibility, and bears might get themselves a larger correction.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

SPX, NDX, INDU Updates

It appears that last update's "Bear 3/C" inflection point may have indeed marked the bottom of "Bear C."  Let's get right to the charts.

First up is SPX's bigger picture chart:

Next is a closer look:

NDX has already made a new high:

And finally INDU, which is lagging a bit, and the only hint of weakness in the market -- INDU does create at least a little bit of concern for bulls until that rectifies:

In conclusion, there is some resistance approaching, and there's always a chance for any rally to stall at resistance, so bears aren't without any chances at all for the moment (although there are as yet no impulsive turns, even at micro degree) -- however, if the market sustains a breakout there, then that will have to be respected as bullish until proven otherwise.  Trade safe.

Monday, March 11, 2019

SPX, INDU, NDX: Mixed Market

Friday's market declined right to Target 2, then meandered around most of the session before bouncing strongly into the close.  We currently have some mixed near-term signals among different markets, and Boeing looks set to drag the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) into a deeply red open this morning -- while SPX has remained relatively flat.

But the signals aren't mixed for THAT reason, but due to the charts Friday's session left us.  Let's start with SPX:

While SPX has broken its first near-term downtrend line for the moment, it has yet to reach the black trend line that's currently crossing near the 2762 (and falling) zone.

INDU, on the other hand, didn't even manage to break its first trend line on Friday, and if it declines strongly off the open, that could "lock-in" a three wave corrective rally:

The NasDUCK 100 (NDX) finds itself in a similar position to INDU:

In conclusion, the market did rally off the target level (target levels often act as support/resistance zones), but it has not yet signaled the "all clear" for bulls, so we can't yet say if the decline is over or not.  (Bears, of course, are hoping "not," but that's not a given either yet -- and if the rally starts to show legs, then these apparent "three wave" structures could develop into something bullish.)  Either way, sustained trade below 2722 should take us toward 2700+/-, though if SPX throws in a complex correction, that next target might not be reached immediately.  Trade safe.

Friday, March 8, 2019

SPX and INDU: A Change of Character

We finally have a change of character in the market, much to the excitement of bears.  Last update noted some key levels, both of which proved to be valuable.  The first tell was INDU, which was rejected right at its key bull/bear line:

SPX then acted as confirmation.  When it violated its key downside level, its first target zone was reached easily during yesterday's session (I've since moved the "Bear 3/C" label):

In conclusion, we should expect further downside for the immediate future (first targets as noted above), and will be watching carefully to see if this decline develops into a larger impulse wave, or remains corrective.  Trade safe.