Wednesday, February 20, 2019

SPX Update: A Great Market for Spearfishing

This remains an exciting nail-biter of a market, by which I mean it's a great market to consider taking up a hobby like skydiving or spearfishing... or even something truly daring, like stamp collecting, which is considerably higher intensity than this market has been lately.  VIX is still hovering around 15, although by all rights, given the price action of late, VIX should be trading at zero or below.

SPX ended up capturing Friday's "if/then" target that very same session, and has finally reached/is reaching its most recent intermediate resistance zone, so maybe the market will react to that and give us something more exciting to trade:

In conclusion, SPX has been trying to lull everyone to sleep, and it's done a darn good job, so maybe that complacency combined with the current resistance zone will finally spark a little volatility back into the market.  We can only hope.  Trade safe.

Friday, February 15, 2019

SPX Update

Yesterday saw the market gap lower at the open, but that decline caught itself on the black trend channel shown in Wednesday's update.  The pattern from here does at least suggest some potential "if/then" targets.  Theoretically, anyway.  The market lately hasn't been terribly kind to its own patterns, so don't get too married to these.

In conclusion, so far bulls are continuing to hold the black trend channel, but if bears can turn the market back down and sustain a break of the black trend channel, they could potentially muster a larger correction here.  Trade safe.

p.s.-- If the forum still isn't loading for you, please clear your browser cache and try again.  Thanks!

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Forum Issue

Just a quick note that the forum issue has been resolved, so I've been assured by support that (hopefully) it should be back up shortly.

In the interim, forum members who are also registered with Disqus (you can register in about a minute if you're not) can use the comment section below this post if they'd like.

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

SPX Update

Monday's update noted that "today could be make or break for the near-term bear count," and it turned out to be "break."  This market continues to frustrate bears, and has yet to offer even a decent retrace.  There really isn't much to say in a market like this, other than "the trend is your friend" -- which is why I've been keeping the updates relatively short for the last couple weeks.

In conclusion, it's still a "ride the trend" market for bulls and a "watch and wait" market for bears.  I'd still prefer to see a decent retrace at some point... we talked about it briefly previously, but there was confirming momentum at the December low, and it's unusual to see that go untested.  We saw a similar situation in 2018, though, wherein the market rallied all the way up to new highs before finally testing (and in that case, breaking) the 2018 lows.  Early-on in this rally, we discussed that as a possibility here, so we'll just have to take it as it comes for now.  Trade safe.

Monday, February 11, 2019

SPX Update

Last update noted that we may finally have a near-term trend change, but that the market could rally back up for a second test of the broken channel.  On Friday, SPX managed to rally part of the way toward that goal, and overnight futures (ES - E-mini S&P futures) have since run up to within the ballpark of a channel retest.

Today could be make or break for the near-term bear count.  Other than that, not much to add.  Trade safe.

Friday, February 8, 2019

SPX Update: Channel Break

The last couple updates noted that we appeared to be approaching an inflection zone.  On Friday, I had noted that another wave up might be needed, and we did get a new high after that update -- and that may finally mark a complete wave off the December lows.

Bears, of course, want to hold the breakdown of the black channel against retests; bulls tested the channel at the close yesterday, and so far that test has been rejected.  Sometimes the market likes to create a second test of such channels, but I'm not sure if it will do so here or not.

(Please note typo:  Fib area should be 2589-2604)

In conclusion, presuming bears can make this breakdown stick, SPX may take aim at the 38% Fib retracement.  If it does, we'll see how it looks from there and decide in real-time if it looks pointed lower (toward the 50% or 62%).  Obviously, if it sustains a breakout over this month's high, then all bear bets are off.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update noted we might be approaching an inflection zone, but that the trend remains up unless and until bears forced a breakdown of the defined uptrend channel.  So far, no breakdown, and the market has meandered higher.

A bit closer view:

INDU has a similar appearance:

In conclusion, there's still nothing much to add, which is, of course, the way bulls like things during an uptrend.  Trade safe.