Wednesday, November 20, 2019

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update noted that there had been multiple upside target captures and that we could see some backing and filling.  SPX then briefly popped higher before reversing:

Since we are dealing with a presumed third wave (and we are still presuming the larger trend is up), it is always possible that the rally will continue its relentless march northward immediately, so as noted, all bets are off if it powers through the recent high immediately.

In conclusion, we're continuing to respect the larger up trend, and merely picking nits along the way.  In the event of a larger impulsive decline, then we'll become alert to a larger pause or correction.  Trade safe.

Monday, November 18, 2019

SPX and INDU: First Bull Targets Captured

Well, a little to add since last update, in that the first target for wave (3) of the bull count from July has now been captured:

And SPX has FINALLY truly reached the black trend line discussed in prior updates.

In conclusion, given the multiple target captures, it would not be unusual to see some backing and filling at this point.  However, in the event the markets can power through these zones (less likely, but not impossible), then we could see a renewed push from the rally.  Trade safe.

Thursday, November 14, 2019

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update suspected we might get a near-term pause in the rally, and the market has moved sideways since then, but futures tonight have broken above their prior high.  This suggests that either the pause was a consolidation for a new leg higher, or (if futures reverse directly), we could get an increasingly complex correction and another b-wave high.  Both options suggest the rally has farther to run -- either immediately (if the consolidation is over) or after a more complex correction (perhaps to the 3070ish zone).

INDU is still below the noted trend line.  Bulls still need to sustain a breakout over that, to help rule out the more complex corrective option.

In conclusion, still nothing much to add.  The trend remains up, and if the most bullish intermediate option is true, then will continue to do so for a while.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

SPX and INDU: Pause Time?

Last update expected Friday's low to at least be tested, and it was, which could have satisfied the requirements of the pattern. It is interesting to note, however, that while SPX made a slight new high since then, INDU has not.  In fact, all INDU has done (so far) is rally back up to the noted blue trend line and get rejected from below.  Bulls need to get back above that line, or risk a test of the black trend line (for starters; we'll see how it develops if that happens -- but keep in mind that the LARGE b-wave high is still on the table for the moment).

SPX tested its low then made a new high at the 3100 zone (again).

It would not be surprising for SPX to test the lower blue trend line:

In conclusion, we continue to have developing signals of at least a temporary pause in the rally, if not more -- we'll see how things shake out from here.  Trade safe.

Monday, November 11, 2019

SPX and INDU Updates

On Friday, several indices formed what appear to be small impulsive declines, and SPX and NDX may have formed b-wave lows at Friday's low to boot, so today we're alert to the potential of another wave down to break Friday's low.


In conclusion, we have the markings of at least a potential near-term turn, but whether it will develop into anything larger is unknown at present.  Obviously, if Friday's low isn't at least tested, then the apparent impulse is off the table.  We'll see how today develops.  Trade safe.

Friday, November 8, 2019

SPX and INDU: Next Meaningful Upside Zone Captured

Still no change, as the market has continued to trend its way higher.  To reiterate, "no change" means "bullish until proven otherwise," which has been our approach for the past couple weeks.  Unless/until the market turns lower and forms an impulsive decline, we will keep the intermediate bear option in the back of our minds, but that's where it will stay unless the market gives us a reason to shift it to the fore.  (Presently, it's difficult to find any long-term bearish options -- but of course, that can always change at some point.)

I'm not blind to the bear potentials, but the market will need to show us it means business before we treat them as more than just "potentials."  After a two year consolidation, if the market is finally done consolidating (which we're not 100% sure of just yet), there is plenty of room for it to run.

SPX did make a new high since last update, and reached the "next meaningful zone" near 3100:

And INDU popped over its next trendline; now we'll see if the back-test holds:

In conclusion, so far, there are no impulsive declines to indicate a turn, but we'll keep watching for them to signal at least a larger pause in the ongoing uptrend.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

SPX and INDU Updates

Since last update, the market has churned sideways like a hyperactive crab, so it hasn't provided any new information to us.  Of some note, INDU did finally make a new all-time high, and is currently testing an old trend line:

[Note: Typo; "3005" should be "3085," obviously.]

SPX has, so far, remained in its red up-channel:

In conclusion, the market hasn't yet broken away enough to rule out the temporary bear option of a large b-wave high and c-wave decline, but it has so far only formed a three-wave decline from the all time high.  Thus, the first step for bears to get anything going would be an immediate and sustained breakdown at 3070, but even if that occurs, there are no guarantees yet that it would be anything more than a more complex correction.  We'll keep an eye on things as they develop, though.  Trade safe.