Wednesday, May 29, 2024

SPX and INDU: Testing, One, Two

SPX has gone a whole lotta nowhere since last update, but futures indicate it's probably going to retest last week's low on the open, so let's look at some options there, with the red trendline (plus/minus) being the next seemingly-important zone:

INDU is in a similar position:

Not much to add beyond that, as it's something of a "wait and see" as the market tests a potential support zone here.  Trade safe.

Friday, May 24, 2024

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Three Charts for a Three-Day Weekend

Last update expected SPX probably still needed at least one more high, which we got on whatever day that was.  But of course, it's never that simple (except for the last few weeks, when it was pretty simple to keep betting on higher prices), and it's entirely possible that the recent ATH was actually a b-wave.  If that's the case, bulls still get another high -- so let's look at some charts and try to figure that out, starting with SPX:

Next up, let's look at some "for and against" arguments, in the form of INDU and COMPQ.  INDU first:

"However," says that chart, "see COMPQ."  Fine, let's see it then:

So we can see that COMPQ and SPX probably give a slight edge to bulls, while INDU is a bit less clear.  To muddy the waters a bit, even if bulls still have the longer-term ball, there's always the option for a BIG b-wave high and a c-wave back below the April lows -- but we'll not worry too much about that just yet, we'll just know it's one of the options.  Don't forget the market's closed on Monday -- trade, and be, safe.

Wednesday, May 22, 2024

SPX and Oil: No, I Didn't Forget!

I'd intended to update oil on Monday, but I forgot.  However, shortly after I published, I remembered.  So, does it still count as forgetting if you subsequently remember?  I don't know, so I'm sticking with today's title.

Oil has traded in a range since its last update and thus far failed to form a complete impulse up, so there really isn't any big breaking news there:

SPX managed to meander around a bit, but I'm not sure that's good enough to mark ALL OF 4 and 5, so I still suspect those waves are out there, lurking in the future.

In conclusion, no real change in SPX:  Caution is not unreasonable, but the odds probably still favor that the next correction will ultimately culminate in new highs.  Trade safe.

Monday, May 20, 2024

SPX Update: Try This ONE TRICK to Lose Weight FAST

 No material changes since last update:

Last update concluded:

In conclusion, with SPX's target capture, things do feel a little trickier again, despite the fact that, at the moment, I'm inclined to lean toward the idea that 4/5 up are still needed. But that's certainly not a given, so we'll see how it develops.

So far, there have been no earth-shattering developments, so no change there, either.  Trade safe. 

p.s.- The title was just an effort to make fun of internet clickbait.  The ONE TRICK is to eat less, just so nobody can say the title was false advertising (wink emoji).

Friday, May 17, 2024

SPX and BKX: SPX Captures Upside Target

Since last update, SPX continued tracking the preferred count and captured its first upside target:

I was asked to update BKX, so here it is.  This chart actually already contained all the relevant information, specifically: that bear 1 would invalidate above 105, that this would not invalidate the larger bear 2/b, and that the upper blue line (+/-) would then become the next likely target:

In conclusion, with SPX's target capture, things do feel a little trickier again, despite the fact that, at the moment, I'm inclined to lean toward the idea that 4/5 up are still needed.  But that's certainly not a given, so we'll see how it develops.  I'll try to update oil in the next update.  Trade safe.

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

SPX and COMPQ: The Early Years

It's always nice when you map out the market in advance and the market plays along, so you only need to look at everything to make sure nothing weird has happened, and if it hasn't, you can say, "no change" and publish the same charts again.

So that's exactly what I'm doing!  Because there will be plenty of times in the future when the market causes much weeping and gnashing of teeth, so we have to enjoy these relatively easy times when they come along:

COMPQ, too, has continued following its expected path (upward).  I've added a preliminary target for bull 5, though I reserve the right to refine that target (possibly higher) as the wave structure reveals itself a bit more:

In conclusion, inflation is still raging, World War III: The Early Years is already underway, the birthrate in America has fallen off a cliff, and AI will probably kill us all anyway -- so what's not to love about equities here?  Nothing, that's what.  Buy, Mortimer, buy!

Of course, after Bull 5 completes, all those aforementioned "bullish" goings-on will finally start to seem negative to people and threats will "suddenly" appear on the radar of the masses as the news cycle and mass psychology turn negative.  Seemingly without warning (for people who've been asleep since ~2009, anyway).  But we're not there yet, and there's always the possibility that Bull 5 will run even farther than it appears from here, so patience is still advised for bears -- though just a quick reminder that the near-term bearish black bear C (first chart) is still a technical possibility, even if it seems less likely, so I never advise complete complacency.  Trade safe.

Monday, May 13, 2024

SPX Update: It Took More Than 50 Seconds to Think Up This Title

Last update anticipated that the market would move a bit higher to complete wave iii, then correct in wave iv before moving higher again.  It appears that's what happened, though I can't entirely rule out the possibility that the third and fourth waves we saw on Friday were of even lower degree, with the completion of wave iii still to come.

Other than that, nothing to add to recent updates.  The market continues to behave in line with expectations, which is about the best we can ever hope for.  Trade safe.