Friday, April 16, 2021

SPX and COMPQ Updates

Still no changes in the outlook.  The near-term SPX chart again proved useful:

Big picture:

COMPQ has now moved into its first inflection zone... we'll see if the market has any reaction to this, or if it blows right through it:

In conclusion, still little to add unless and until there's an impulsive decline to signal a pause in the uptrend.  COMPQ could, of course, react to its inflection (and thus signal the rest of the market will do the same), but given the relentless nature of the uptrend so far, we probably have to treat that as speculative for now.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

SPX and COMPQ Updates

Last update didn't have too much to add, except for a little bit about COMPQ, which is now entering its inflection zone:

SPX has continued reacting to near-term support and resistance lines on the chart below:

Still no change to the big picture:

In conclusion, still just a "ride the trend" market for now... it's starting to feel like the oft-discussed extended fifth wave may be brewing, though it's too soon to say for certain.  Trade safe.

Monday, April 12, 2021

SPX and COMPQ Updates

Last update didn't have much to add to the past few, except to note SPX was testing a near-term trend line... on Friday, it cleared that line and ran to the top of its newly-formed channel (in blue), where it appears to be meeting at least temporary resistance (per futures):

Big picture, SPX is now decidedly over the very long-term red trend line:

Interestingly, COMPQ has been lagging this rally, and has yet to clear its ATH:

In conclusion, there's still not much to add, though COMPQ means there's at least something of an inflection zone nearby, as it's hard to see the broader market rallying if COMPQ reacts strongly to the symmetry of its rally off the March low.  Do note there is no guarantee COMPQ will react, though, which is why we call it an inflection -- it's one possible future, not set in stone.  Trade safe.

Friday, April 9, 2021

SPX, Drugs, and Rock n' Roll (or not)

So we had some brief fireworks on April 5, but this market has been a grind since then.  Thus, no real change to the past few updates.  Of minor note that near-term resistance has continued holding:

Big picture, we have the red trend line still undergoing its test:

Intermediate term, the green trend line now hangs beneath the market:

In conclusion, the last few sessions have been pretty dull, so nothing much to add at this point.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, April 7, 2021

SPX and NYA: No Change (but a Note for Bears Included)

After talking about this for months, SPX is finally testing the very-long-term red trendline.  It has not been able to sustain a breakout over this line since the bull market began, over 12 years ago.  If it can do so now/soon, then SPX would be in literal uncharted waters.  We thus can't entirely ignore this inflection.

Everyone wants to know if there's any way this test of the long-term red line could be "it," and while that's less likely, it's not impossible:

The annotation above pretty much says it all, so let's look at near-term support/resistance:

In conclusion, no real change from last update, but I did want to at least note the alternate big picture count, because it always pays to know the options, as that allows one to shift psychological gears more quickly if the playing field unexpectedly changes.  Trade safe.

Monday, April 5, 2021

SPX, TRAN, and -- FINALLY -- the Updated NYA Chart

Last update was slightly leaning toward a more complex near-term correction, which appears to have failed to materialize, but noted that even if we got one, it wouldn't eliminate bigger bull options.  On that note, TRAN has, so far, managed to hold its discussed breakout, and other markets are threatening to break out (which we'll get to momentarily):

Bigger picture, SPX has cleared near-term resistance, which means it may finally head up to test the red line we've discussed many times previously:

But the big news today is that Stockcharts FINALLY saved the properly-updated the NYA chart, which I've been trying to update/publish for two weeks now:

In conclusion, SPX has cleared near-term resistance, and other markets are threatening to do the same.  NYA captured its third wave target from June 2020, but seems to have worked off its 4/5 unwinds without losing much momentum.  We'll see if these breakouts stick, but if they do, then this means that bulls may still have a larger fifth wave to unwind before bears get another chance.  Presuming we're into the zone of beginning a "final fifth," it also means that, even if this turns into a blow-off higher first, when that bear chance finally comes, it could be a doozy.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

SPX Update: No Change

Since last update, nothing "new" has happened:  The market dropped down to the next support zone and bounced up to the next resistance zone, where it's currently stalled.

(note typo:  "against" should be "again")

I looked over many charts last night, but there's really nothing new to add.  While the overall pattern is incredibly choppy, the market has been reacting to the trend lines on the chart above for months now, so we'll keep paying attention to those trend lines until that stops working.  Beyond that, not much to add.  Trade safe.