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Friday, July 31, 2015

INDU Update: Market Enters Resistance


Yesterday saw the rally finally pause, but bulls bought it right back up again (or shorts did.  Someone did!).  Today, we're getting into territory where there could be some measure of resistance.  I'm going to let two charts from INDU do all the talking today:


And a closer look at the potential micro structure:


SPX would be expected to follow a similar path (preliminary approximate target for B-down in SPX would be 2070-80).  Unless the rally is going to tack on a fifth wave extension (which we can't predict in advance), then we should be in the ballpark where a correction would begin, ideally after an opening pop to a new high as shown on INDU's chart.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

SPX, RUT, HYG:TLT: RUT Captures Target


Short on time, so I'll let the charts do ALL the talking:


SPX:


HYG:TLT:


In conclusion, recent targets have been captured, which means that, presently, the near-term picture is a little muddy.  We can't know exactly what the market will do every step of the way, after all, and have to content ourselves with those moments when we do know.  Nothing has changed regarding the intermediate picture, which still modestly favors the bears.  Trade safe.

Monday, July 27, 2015

SPX, INDU, RUT: No Material Change to the Near-term or Intermediate-term


Last update concluded:

The charts are suggesting that the bears aren't done yet, and RUT in particular looks like it wants new lows.  While a bounce wouldn't be unreasonable, I would expect the next bounce to be sold.  The bear case will remain preferred unless the recent highs are reclaimed, or until such time as the downward wave structure appears complete.

Friday's session later saw a relentless decline, and RUT ended the session by making a new low:




 SPX reached its if/then target zone of 2082 +/-, but the decline doesn't look finished:



Finally, a lot of folks have been asking for an update to the intermediate picture -- but there really isn't much to add since I first went out on a limb with this, way back in March:



In conclusion, there's nothing in the structure yet to suggest bears are done, and new lows appear reasonably likely across the board.  Trade safe.

Friday, July 24, 2015

SPX, RUT, NYA: Bears Take the Wheel


The market took a bit of a beating since last update, and we now have what appear to be impulsive declines across several markets.  This suggests that the downward trend will continue for at least one more wave -- and possibly a lot more.

Let's start with RUT, which may be the most damaging chart to the various bull cases:



NYA also continues to look near-term bearish -- and perhaps intermediate bearish as well:


Finally, just to play devil's advocate, SPX presents one way to view things bullishly:


In conclusion, the charts are suggesting that the bears aren't done yet, and RUT in particular looks like it wants new lows.  While a bounce wouldn't be unreasonable, I would expect the next bounce to be sold.  The bear case will remain preferred unless the recent highs are reclaimed, or until such time as the downward wave structure appears complete.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

SPX, NYA, NDX: Bears Keep Hope Alive, for Now

Last update ended with: 

In conclusion, there's still no clear predictive pattern that's emerged from the noise zone, but we are now in a resistance zone, so the market may react to that...

And lo and behold, the old English saying "lo and behold" found its way into the update!  Also, the market did react to the resistance zone (though, ironically, BKX failed to live up to its advertised impulse from last update).  This keeps the bear options alive for now.

Let's get right to the charts, because I'm short on time.  First is NYA:


SPX:


And a couple zones to watch in NDX:


In conclusion, bears have kept their hopes alive for the time being, and anyone who acted on my "not trading advice" against the all-time high is in a decent position to protect profits heading forward.  Trade safe. 

Monday, July 20, 2015

SPX, INDU, NYA, BKX Updates: No Title is a Good Title


Last update noted that markets were approaching prior resistance, but that we had yet to see any downward impulse waves to signal a turn.  After that update was published, SPX gapped open and was immediately met with decent selling pressure... but the relevant conundrum is shown on the chart below:


Of note, BKX does appear to have an impulsive decline: 



NYA's chart takes a further look at a near-term bear option (with at least the potential for a bigger bear option): (continued, next page)

Friday, July 17, 2015

NYA, INDU, SPX: Markets Approach Resistance


Since last update, the rally has continued largely unabated.  The rally has the hallmarks of an impulse wave, which likely either makes it a fifth wave headed to new highs (as discussed last update), or the c-wave of a complex flat. 

SPX is 10 points off the all-time-highs, so risk levels are more clearly defined in this zone -- however, we have yet to see any decent-sized downward impulse waves:



INDU is a bit farther off from its highs:



Finally, the NYA chart presents a bigger picture view, in the event that this is a fifth wave headed to new highs:


In conclusion, there have been no downward impulse waves yet to suggest a top, but most indices are approaching resistance, so that could generate a reaction.  Trade safe.