Wednesday, December 11, 2019

SPX Update: Three Waves Down -- So Far

Last update noted that the all-time high might offer some degree of resistance (it usually does), and the market has moved sideways-down since then.  So far, we have what appears to be a three-wave decline from 3150:

Bigger picture, bulls do need to sustain a breakout over prior resistance (the all time high) to help validate the bounce at the red support line (which would thus show that support has more clout than resistance does right now):

In conclusion, the decline from 3150 is -- so far -- corrective, so bears will need another low to suggest more than a very short term stall.  The market has completed the minimum for a corrective decline, if that's what this is/was, so we'll see if that's all it wanted here.  Trade safe.

Monday, December 9, 2019

SPX Update: Not Much to Add

Nothing unexpected or unusual happened on Friday, so still no real change.  Traditionally, the successful back-test of a major breakout is considered bullish.

Near-term, the pattern is pretty straightforward at the moment:

In conclusion, we've been positioned bullishly for a while, and so far there's been nothing from the market to change that.  SPX is retesting the all time high, so we'll see if there's any resistance there or not.  Trade safe.

Friday, December 6, 2019

SPX Update: No Change

Last update noted that the bear move could have completed at 3070:

...bears should be aware that the decline does form a potentially-complete ABC into a (theoretically) solid support zone, so if bulls want to run it up to new highs from here, there's nothing that says they can't

The market has rallied since, and looks poised to gap higher at the open this morning.

Again, given the apparent wave pattern out of the last long-term consolidation, the burden of proof will remain on bears:

In conclusion, no change from recent updates.  Near-term, there could be resistance at the blue trend line and at the retest of the all-time high -- but there doesn't have to be, presuming the bull market remains intact.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

SPX Update: Important Trendlines Come Through

Last update noted that SPX had reached resistance at multiple time frame.  That resistance came through for bears over the near-term in a pretty big way... and SPX dropped all the way back down to the support zone noted on 11/25.  That zone has held so far -- and SPX has bounced more than 30 points (counting overnight action) off of it (again, so far):

The near-term trend line chart also came through:

In conclusion, recently published charts proved to be extremely valuable during the recent move, providing excellent entries and exits for an 80-plus point move.  While it's probably tempting for bears to get excited after that sharp decline, so far there are only three waves down to yesterday's low at the red intermediate support zone (first chart), and a test of that zone is perfectly normal even for a bull run.  The only thing that might cause bulls a little doubt is the fact that we got there extremely quickly -- so I'm not implying bulls should be complacent here.  However, bears should be aware that the decline does form a potentially-complete ABC into a (theoretically) solid support zone, so if bulls want to run it up to new highs from here, there's nothing that says they can't.  If bears can sustain a breakdown at red support, then things might start to look more bearish.  Trade safe.

Monday, December 2, 2019

SPX Update: Next Noted Resistance Reached

Well, the traditionally-bullish Thanksgiving week came through for bulls well enough, but SPX has now run to the next noted resistance zones -- at two time frames.

Long-term, SPX ran into the previously-noted blue line:

And near-term, SPX has run into the previously-noted red line:

So far, these zones have provided at least a brief rejection -- we'll see if bears can do more with it, and go form there.  Trade safe.

Friday, November 29, 2019

Updates Will Return on Monday

I probably should have mentioned this on Wednesday, but since I forgot to, I feel obligated to post this today. Frankly, there's not much to add anyway. Have a safe holiday, and I'll see you again on Monday.  :)

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

SPX Update

No material change since last update, and the long-term uptrend continues.  The traditionally-bullish Thanksgiving week has come through for bulls so far.

We'll take a look at SPX across three time frames.  First, the near-term... SPX has continued to honor the blue trend line chart for the past few weeks, and has now bounced from the lower line to the upper:

Intermediate-term, SPX has now made it above rising resistance -- it may want to back-test that zone at some point:

Long-term, still between next support/resistance:

In conclusion, no material change to the past few weeks, and we maintain our intermediate bullish outlook until proven otherwise.  Incidentally, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!  Please remember to take a moment to thank your friends and family for all they do -- because when it's all said and done, money can never be more than a "means to an end," not the end in itself.  Trade safe.