Monday, September 24, 2018

SPX Update: The Noise Knows

Last update looked like higher prices were still needed, but SPX reversed a little shy of its textbook target.  I remain less-than-thrilled with this market overall.  While the occasional clear near term pattern has emerged from this mess, the overarching big picture wave count can still go either way (B-wave high with a steep decline to follow vs. a bull wave that would probably need to exceed 3000).  Neither of these two larger patterns looks much better than 50% right now, so when the near term turns messy (which has been often lately), there's nothing that provides a clear "tie-breaker" between one near-term pattern and the next.

Accordingly, we're continuing to simply take it day by day until things clear up again.

In conclusion, I always view it as a bit dangerous to overreach the market with one's projections.  Either the charts justify a solid projection or they don't.  At present, there's still an inordinate amount of noise in the charts, which is clouding the picture.  Eventually that will clear, as it always does.  Trade safe.

Friday, September 21, 2018

SPX and INDU Updates: Bulls Still Holding the Cards

Well, at present, there's not much for bears to get excited about.  SPX did retest the prior ATH, which we anticipated -- and that level held the back-test.  A failure there could have been encouraging to bears, but it, of course, never materialized and that zone acted as "resistance turned support."  Traditionally, that's a bullish signal, so we'll just keep trading the prevailing trend until the market tells us to do otherwise.

INDU's chart had warned us back on September 14 that the best bears could hope for was "just a correction" and that the pattern was ultimately (likely) bullish either way:

SPX below:

In conclusion, there's very little for bears to get excited about presently.  That could always change tomorrow, but right at this moment, the overall pattern looks anywhere from "a bit bullish" to "extremely bullish."  Unless and until that changes, the only thing to do is play along.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

SPX Update

Last update focused on the near-term, and provided some "if/then" targets.  Targets 1 and 2 were both captured in SPX:

Right at the moment, there's not much to be made in the way of predictions with this pattern. SPX has reached a potential resistance zone, so if bears have anything in the tank, they may try to mount a defense of the August highs.  Trade safe.

Monday, September 17, 2018

SPX and INDU: Near-term Charts

Nothing's really changed from the past few updates, so today we're going to look at some shorter-term charts for potential clues.

I've outlined the apparent key levels for INDU (first chart) and SPX (second chart):

In conclusion, the bigger picture remains up for grabs.  We did decline to back-test the prior all-time high as we anticipated at the end of August -- and so far, that back-test has held.  INDU still has the appearance of a larger expanded flat (discussed last update), so if we decline back toward this month's low again, then bears will have to be very cautious of a bounce developing soon after (leading back up to new all-time highs for SPX).  We'll burn that bridge in more detail if we come to it.  Trade safe.

Friday, September 14, 2018

INDU Updates: No Favors

We're going to focus on INDU today, because we were using that as our "canary" in the prior update, and INDU broke its August high since then.

This means that if we reverse more or less immediately (quite possible, if that low WAS indeed a b-wave) then we'll probably have a similar situation as we had with the August low (the c-wave of an expanded flat, leading to new highs).

Longer term, INDU is approaching a potential long-term resistance zone:

In conclusion, the market continues to provide very little for bears to sink their teeth into, in terms of concrete, non-speculative signals -- but if my read of a b-wave low in INDU was correct, bears might get at least a short-term reprieve in the form of black c.  If we continue higher unabated, then we'll just keep tracing the trend until the market says otherwise.  Trade safe.

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

SPX and INDU Updates: Still No Material Change

Last update expected SPX might bounce, since it had reached the lower trend line, and it's done that.  Ultimately, my "best guess" remains that lower prices are probably still needed, and the best evidence for that might be INDU:

The pattern above isn't a sure-fire lock, but it's better than 50% odds that the a/1 low will be broken before too long.

SPX would be expected to follow a similar path (as it usually does), but in SPX's case, an equivalent new low would break the lower red trend line:

In conclusion, no real change from last update, and my best guess is still that lower prices are needed before any kind of lasting low become viable.  Obviously, sustained trade north of the all-time high would cast doubt on that "best guess."  Trade safe.

Monday, September 10, 2018

SPX Update: No Real Change

Last update expected lower prices, which we got.  We've now reached a near-term downside inflection point, at the lower red trend line:

The pattern into Friday is anything but clear, so I'll give my "best guess," but I can't have high confidence in this at the moment:  My best guess is that we'll rally a little on Monday, but that the overall decline isn't complete.  A sustained break of the lower red trend line could spark a larger sell-off.

In conclusion, the decline since the all-time high hasn't been terribly clear.  It's either a very complex corrective wave, or it's the warm up to a more significant decline, but presently there's no way to sort those two options.  As I said, my best guess is that lower prices are still needed, but my confidence is limited.  For now, we'll continue under the assumption that Red B is complete, but we'll do so cautiously.  Trade safe.