SPX Update: Short and Sweet

I decided to do a brief update today, so then to take "the rest of the week" off really only means I'll be taking Friday off (since the market's closed on Wednesday anyway).

The main thing I wanted to update is the potential intermediate channel for SPX, if it sustains a breakout here:

In conclusion, SPX is challenging the upper edge of a long-term channel, and if it can clear this, that may be a signal that it's working the steeper green channel.  Note that because this is a challenge against a long-term channel, we'll need to see sustained trade and closes north of that channel to consider the breakout real.

Also, I'd like to wish all my readers Merry Christmas (and/or a generic "Happy Holidays" if you celebrate something else, or nothing else).  As has become tradition each year, here's a link to a piece I wrote 6 years ago, titled A Christmas Story -- Reflections on What Matters.

Have a happy and safe holiday.  :)

SPX Update

So far, SPX has held its breakout over the blue trend line.  This has the potential to be quite significant in terms of the speed of the pending (continuing) rally.  As I've written repeatedly, I remain intermediate bullish -- but things could actually get even "more" bullish if SPX can sustain breakouts ovver the blue and black trend lines on the intermediate chart.  That would suggest a steeper rising channel is in effect, if it occurs.

Near-term, SPX remains in the uptrend channel from the early December lows:

In conclusion, bulls are -- so far -- continuing to rally through this inflection zone.  The upper edge of the zone is probably the black trend line, so we'll see how they manage that area.

On a more personal note, I'm undecided at the moment about whether or not I'll publish any updates during Christmas week next week.  I may relax and spend the week with family (I could use a break!).  I'll publish something on Monday either way -- either a market update or a personal update.

Trade safe.

SPX Update

Bulls are trying to create a breakout; we'll see if they can hold it:

My next near-term upside target (mentioned in the forum only) has been captured:

Other than that, not much to add to the past few updates.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Change

Last update noted that we were reaching an inflection point, and it looks like today we'll get more officially into that zone.  (I had also mentioned that I would prefer to see higher prices.)  Keep in mind that this inflection zone is ultimately expected to resolve higher, the question is "now or later."  Today looks primed to open into the blue trend line.

Near-term, there is room to run inside the old channel:

In conclusion, no material change since Friday, except to note that the expected new high is playing out.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Inflection Point Approaches

Last update noted that there were potentially three-waves down, enough for a completed correction and new highs, and that proved to be correct.  SPX also captured its published upside target:

I mention above that we're getting into an inflection zone.  Here's why I say that:

In conclusion, the market probably needs another new high, which could function as another test of the blue line... but given the number of waves and position of the pattern, we are roughly into an inflection zone here, so (although I'd prefer to see higher prices first) it's not impossible for a new high to fail.  Bigger picture, if bulls can sail over the intermediate blue line, we could see an extension of the micro fifth wave.  If they can't, then we may see a larger (presumed) fourth wave correction, which could stretch back toward the red line, near 3100.  At present, I would not expect such a correction to be too much deeper than that, nor expect it to be anything other than a pause in an ongoing bull run -- but, as always, we'll take it as it comes.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Three Waves Down -- So Far

Last update noted that the all-time high might offer some degree of resistance (it usually does), and the market has moved sideways-down since then.  So far, we have what appears to be a three-wave decline from 3150:

Bigger picture, bulls do need to sustain a breakout over prior resistance (the all time high) to help validate the bounce at the red support line (which would thus show that support has more clout than resistance does right now):

In conclusion, the decline from 3150 is -- so far -- corrective, so bears will need another low to suggest more than a very short term stall.  The market has completed the minimum for a corrective decline, if that's what this is/was, so we'll see if that's all it wanted here.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Not Much to Add

Nothing unexpected or unusual happened on Friday, so still no real change.  Traditionally, the successful back-test of a major breakout is considered bullish.

Near-term, the pattern is pretty straightforward at the moment:

In conclusion, we've been positioned bullishly for a while, and so far there's been nothing from the market to change that.  SPX is retesting the all time high, so we'll see if there's any resistance there or not.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Change

Last update noted that the bear move could have completed at 3070:

...bears should be aware that the decline does form a potentially-complete ABC into a (theoretically) solid support zone, so if bulls want to run it up to new highs from here, there's nothing that says they can't

The market has rallied since, and looks poised to gap higher at the open this morning.

Again, given the apparent wave pattern out of the last long-term consolidation, the burden of proof will remain on bears:

In conclusion, no change from recent updates.  Near-term, there could be resistance at the blue trend line and at the retest of the all-time high -- but there doesn't have to be, presuming the bull market remains intact.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Important Trendlines Come Through

Last update noted that SPX had reached resistance at multiple time frame.  That resistance came through for bears over the near-term in a pretty big way... and SPX dropped all the way back down to the support zone noted on 11/25.  That zone has held so far -- and SPX has bounced more than 30 points (counting overnight action) off of it (again, so far):

The near-term trend line chart also came through:

In conclusion, recently published charts proved to be extremely valuable during the recent move, providing excellent entries and exits for an 80-plus point move.  While it's probably tempting for bears to get excited after that sharp decline, so far there are only three waves down to yesterday's low at the red intermediate support zone (first chart), and a test of that zone is perfectly normal even for a bull run.  The only thing that might cause bulls a little doubt is the fact that we got there extremely quickly -- so I'm not implying bulls should be complacent here.  However, bears should be aware that the decline does form a potentially-complete ABC into a (theoretically) solid support zone, so if bulls want to run it up to new highs from here, there's nothing that says they can't.  If bears can sustain a breakdown at red support, then things might start to look more bearish.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Next Noted Resistance Reached

Well, the traditionally-bullish Thanksgiving week came through for bulls well enough, but SPX has now run to the next noted resistance zones -- at two time frames.

Long-term, SPX ran into the previously-noted blue line:

And near-term, SPX has run into the previously-noted red line:

So far, these zones have provided at least a brief rejection -- we'll see if bears can do more with it, and go form there.  Trade safe.