SPX and COMPQ... and Trouble on the Far Horizon for NVDA?

Since last update, we not only had a Fed day, but people have figured out how to build full model LLMs without getting heavily invested into GPUs (potential trouble brewing on the far horizon for NVDA), and yet the market has gone basically nowhere.

SPX is starting to get that "bear diagonal or bull nest" look to it, so it may be getting ready to move more decisively quite soon:

COMPQ still has both options open (as does SPX, of course):

In conclusion, nothing has happened since last update, so there's just nothing really to add.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Fed Day

Today is a Fed Day, and charting took longer than expected for some reason, so I'll let the charts and the Fed do the talking today.

First up is COMPQ, for a wider view:

SPX so far bounced right at its blue trend line:

In conclusion, both options remain open for now, but COMPQ does tend to suggest that if the recent low breaks, the move from COMPQ's high at 20.1K to the next low will need to be a five wave decline (either as a C-wave or worse).  We'll see if the market still cares what the Fed has to say in the meantime.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates: Keeping It Interesting

As of right now, futures are indicating a gap down open, which is going to leave the larger flat we've discussed over the past couple weeks very much on the table.  The first zone to watch is blue:

INDU did not make it nearly as far back up as SPX and is being rejected (as of right now) at its black trend line:

In conclusion, the next zone to watch in SPX is the blue trend line.  If that breaks, then we could well be looking at the aforementioned complex flat, which has a textbook target of 5690-5710 (though, being a corrective pattern, always reserves its right to fall short of that target).  If that happens, it would continue to imply at least one more high, though there are patterns that could be complete at the most recent ATH -- so we'll at least keep that possibility on the back burner, depending on what happens next.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: And the Beat Goes On

Since last update, COMPQ captured its 20k+ target:

INDU rallied up to tag the "next test" black trend line:

And SPX made a new all-time high:

Of note, this most recent leg of the rally (going back several months) seems to be being driven largely by retail investors -- perhaps historically so:

While retail is generally not known as "smart money," let's hope this time is different.

In conclusion, SPX does still have the option for a complex flat that runs back down to the recent lows, but again, right now that only exists as "an option" in theory, with no impulsive declines to make it more than that.  We'll see if the market reacts with multiple indices at or near resistance zones, or if it just keeps chugging higher.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA, INDU: Upside Targets (will be) Captured

Last update opined:

[B\ulls seem to have the near-term ball with the previously discussed C-wave rally possibly unfolding now. Whether they have enough to get over the all-time high, or if this is just another retest of it, remains to be seen.

And SPX looks poised to open near the upper bounds of the C-wave target zone:

COMPQ also appears it will reach its "more likely 20K+" target zone:

NYA continues to follow the "or?" path laid out way back on December 18:

Finally, INDU has not only retested the blue line as expected a week ago, but has clawed back over it:

In conclusion, today will retest the zone near the all-time-high.  This move seems to have a lot of momentum, so we'll see if bears can mount a defense or not.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA, INDU: Almost Six of One, Half a Dozen of the Udder

Last update referred back to Monday's update: 

The most recent decline has been a little slow (relative to its position in the structure), so that does leave open the potential of the larger b-wave and bounce discussed on the chart. But it's not an assurance of such, because sometimes things like a "wave i of 3" can start a little slow. 

Since then, SPX briefly broke down, but it didn't stick... which leaves open both potentials discussed on Monday (wave i of 3, with this bounce being ii of 3 -- or the larger b-wave, with this bounce being larger c).

And since THEN, SPX has added some confidence to the idea of this bounce being larger c... or even something a bit more bullish (more on that in the final two charts):

The next hurdle for INDU is the black line, which it continues to look likely to test:

Bigger picture, NYA still illustrates the more bullish outcome, originally discussed on December 18:

And COMPQ illustrates how, at least in COMPQ (though this also holds true for SPX), it's not much of a difference, in terms of points, from the C-wave to the "new high":

In conclusion, bulls seem to have the near-term ball with the previously discussed C-wave rally possibly unfolding now.  Whether they have enough to get over the all-time high, or if this is just another retest of it, remains to be seen.  Of course, let's not get so complacent that we ignore the resistance zones along the way, as the market could always offer unpleasant surprises for bulls there.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update noted:  

The most recent decline has been a little slow (relative to its position in the structure), so that does leave open the potential of the larger b-wave and bounce discussed on the chart. But it's not an assurance of such, because sometimes things like a "wave i of 3" can start a little slow.

Since then, SPX briefly broke down, but it didn't stick... which leaves open both potentials discussed on Monday (wave i of 3, with this bounce being ii of 3 -- or the larger b-wave, with this bounce being larger c):

It will also be interesting to see if INDU gets back to its long-term trend line and whether that serves as resistance if it does:

In conclusion, the two main options presented in the prior update both remain viable, for now, so we'll see which one the market chooses.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ Updates

Since last update, SPX, COMPQ, and INDU have all broken their prior swing lows.  This confirms the "possible b-wave low" discussed on January 6:

The most recent decline has been a little slow (relative to its position in the structure), so that does leave open the potential of the larger b-wave and bounce discussed on the chart.  But it's not an assurance of such, because sometimes things like a "wave i of 3" can start a little slow.

I've added some potential targets to the COMPQ chart, if things break here:

And INDU's pivot zone seems to be working well enough.  The question here, as with the others (though this chart illustrates it more graphically) is whether the market will want another stab at the pivot line first or not:

In conclusion, bears continue to signal that they retain the upper hand for now, at least in the bigger picture.  The main question is whether the market will choose a delay tactic or not.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, COMPQ: In Case I Was Too Subtle

Not much new since last update, but I did want to revisit a statement I made back on January 3, because I sometimes convey things maybe a bit too subtly.  The statement I'm referring to specifically was the comment "for now, we'll give that lower weight."  What preceded that was a discussion of the bear options as the (implicit) "higher weight" value.  In other words, I've been suspecting that we've already seen an "end to the bull run for now, or even of the entire bull market."  That's the assumption I'm currently operating from, but I wanted to reiterate that, in case it wasn't clear from the comment I made on Jan. 3:

Beyond that, nothing to add to the SPX chart.  I still tend to suspect we're headed for a break of the prior low and hence the 5500s.  If bulls wanted to annoy everyone, they would create another wave up here, possibly as part of an ending diagonal c-wave higher (with i of c already completed, and ii of c the decline since).

Finally, COMPQ is also unchanged:

In conclusion, if bulls were going to pull out an upset, they're probably running out of real estate in which to do so.  As noted on the NYA chart, that can't be ruled out yet, but it does appear to be the underdog.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU, NYA: Fairly Clear

Not much to add from the past couple updates, but we are increasingly seeing signs that bears may be able to run with the ball from here.  Let's start with COMPQ:

SPX tagged last update's blue trend line on the nose and then gave up:

INDU still remains below is key pivot zone:

And NYA continues to illustrate how the market could have recently completed a larger wave, perhaps at significant wave degree:

In conclusion, bears still haven't broken the key levels they need, but they are doing what we'd expect them to do if that was where the market was ultimately headed.  As noted on that SPX chart, that would suggest a trip down into at least the 5500s over the nearer term.  As INDU and SPX both also note, however, the zone above which bears might want to back off looks reasonably clear.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA: A Critical Time

Friday was the type of "gap up and then stumble gradually higher day" that is known for its ability to cause traders to quit en masse and pursue new careers in less demanding fields, such as spearfishing, so there's not a ton to add to the prior update.  Maybe the most noteworthy near-term chart at the moment is COMPQ:

NYA is still in the same basic place as last update:

And SPX has now given itself just a little breathing room:

I'll add one more chart for consideration, but the caveats are outlined on the chart:

In conclusion, not much else to add from Friday's update.  This is potentially a critical time in the market, as bulls need to hold the general zone of the most recent lows.  A sustained breakdown could signal significant bear moves on the horizon.  Trade safe.

NYA, INDU, SPX: Happy New Year

Last update (December 18) warned that it was "getting hairy out there" and included this:

6035 can no longer be the bottom of wave C of a triangle. That low is either wave (a) of said C wave, wave a of a b/2 correction to the prior leg up, or a NESTED WAVE 1 down. In other words, bulls should be very cautious on a sustained breakdown of the blue "alt: a/1" low.

As it turned out, bulls did need to be very cautious and the nested wave 1 down appears to have been the reality, given the incredible speed of the decline after the breakdown of the blue alt. a/1 low.

The NYA chart I published then showed how the rally could be over if the final wave had been a diagonal, so let's update that chart now:

 NYA again:

INDU's chart contained a warning about the black trend line, and INDU remains below it, having so far backtested it and failed to claw back above:

Finally, SPX's chart is intended to help cut through the noise:

In conclusion, it is indeed possible that the bull market has ended, but it's very much up in the air yet and not a forgone conclusion.  So, bulls should be very, very cautious, but they're not dead by any means yet.  The charts above will help with determining where the market heads from here.  Trade safe.