SPX, INDU, NYA: Getting Weird Out There

Last update intimated that bulls seemed to have reclaimed the ball and that was partially the case:  INDU and NYA both made new all-time highs, for example -- but SPX didn't.  The overall pattern is one of the more ambiguous patterns we've seen in at least a year (probably longer), so we'll discuss the options in a moment.

First up, INDU's near-term chart is flat-out bizarre:

SPX, while also a bit cryptic in the near-term frames, has performed phenomenally well if all you did was trade my intermediate trend lines:

Near-term, SPX captured its target from last update:

Maybe the closest chart I can find to a conventional and more readily recognizable pattern would be NYA:

Of course, if NYA reverses higher without making a new swing low, then it could simply be a bull nest.

In fact, let's take this opportunity to discuss the apparent options here:  

• One option was just mentioned (bull nest).  If recent lows hold, then it may be that simple.  
• If recent lows fail, then the slight odds-on favorite would probably be a complex expanded flat, with recent all-time highs being complex b-waves -- SPX and NYA's charts both outline the "common" targets in that case.
• The third option would be that things have gotten weird because the market is topping in a more significant manner.  Since we can't rule that out, bulls probably need to be cautious in the event things start breaking (much beyond the expanded flat targets noted above).  This third option is reflected in the chart below, which I published (again) about a week ago:

In conclusion, as we've just examined, the pattern is less than definitive from a predictive standpoint -- but we have a handle on the most likely potentials, so we should be able to track it as more data comes in.  Trade safe.