SPX and INDU: Holding the Bear Case to the Fire

So SPX performed almost exactly as drawn on the black projection in the prior update, but that doesn't mean we should rest on our laurels.  We should instead rest on someone else's laurels and save ours for a special occasion.  

No!  That's not what I intended to say when I started typing.  What I meant to say was:  as I looked through the charts last night I found several... "counterexamples" isn't exactly the right word, because they're not conclusive -- but in that vein.  Basically, charts that aren't quite playing along with the bear thesis (yet, anyway).  Let me show an example of what I mean:

NYA and BKX are also not looking... exactly "bearish" at this moment.  Again: yet.  They could always resolve that later... OR: maybe they're warning signs for bears.  It's a little early to say, but I'd be remiss not to mention it.  

Point is, markets are dynamic and the situation -- via INDU, NYA, BKX -- is, for the moment, seemingly in flux.  So we should at least entertain the possibility that the bear case may not be quite the slam dunk it looked like a couple days ago.  Maybe that will resolve in bears' favor in the next few sessions.  But we should stay open, in case it doesn't.

Looking at the bear side of things, we have SPX (and COMPQ looks similar):

In conclusion, SPX looks straightforward, but there's not a ton of cross-market agreement right now.  And that alone is cause to avoid complacency.  Bears probably want to see INDU break down again fairly directly or they could be in for a larger rally.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: A Larger Impulse Down

SPX did go on to form a larger impulse down, as suspected.  I spent a lot more time than I anticipated on the charts, so we're long on charts and short on text body today.  Let's start with intermediate SPX:

COMPQ, as promised:

Near-term SPX for a detailed look (typo: Occam's):

In conclusion, while a b-wave high is always possible (this would be bulls' lone remaining out, here), there's no clear evidence of one in the charts.  Thus, the assumption should probably be that the trend is now down, until proven otherwise.  

Note that it's hard to detail this without cluttering the charts, but something that approximates a retest of the high prior to the next down leg is "not impossible" in this scenario.  We'll play it by ear if bulls sustain trade out of the crash channel.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Both Downside Targets Captured

Last update noted that we had a new "impulsive looking" decline -- and the market confirmed that and captured both its downside targets -- plus.

The chart below looks out a little further into more speculative territory, just so readers have an idea of some of the things we should be watching here next:

In conclusion, the near-term impulsive decline begot a second impulsive decline, as it normally should.  Now we're on watch to see if these turn into a still-larger impulsive decline (five complete waves).  Right now, it's still three waves down.  The upcoming sessions will be important, though I think bulls would want to be cautious if it sustains trade much below ~7330 in the meantime, even without a full five wave structure (see annotation on second chart).  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Not from Our Universe

Last update noted:

There are some early signs that maybe it wants a correction here (that's what prompted me to draw those potential support lines) but that's not guaranteed.

Those early signs did play out and the market declined.  Most of the time, I would expect another decline to follow.  You'll of course forgive me for being modestly gun-shy in the current environment.

Assuming that impulse is indeed wave A or 1 down, then the next targets would be as shown below:

In conclusion, we have a new "impulsive looking" decline, so we'll see if that gives bears a moment in the sun or if the market pulls the rug on them again.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: The Thin Red Lines

SPX has been grinding sideways up since Friday, so there isn't a ton new to say about it -- but I have added a few new horizontal support zones to keep up with the recent price action.

In the event the green channel breaks down, those will be zones worth watching.  Since we don't have any impulsive turns to draw projections from, this is about all we can do at this phase.

In conclusion, there's just not a lot to say about a market that behaves like this -- other than maybe: "market like this one are the reason trend channels were invented."  There are some early signs that maybe it wants a correction here (that's what prompted me to draw those potential support lines) but that's not guaranteed.  Trade safe.

SPX and Gold: Gold Worth Watching

I'm suffering through another birthday today, so this update isn't going to be ultra-detailed, but I do have some noteworthy info about gold.

After capturing its first downside target and a good-sized bounce, gold retreated down below the black trendline.  Gold bulls probably want to be cautious if it sustains trade down here because, as noted previously, that would put a test of blue on the table as a live option.

Of note, I realized today that Stockcharts had shifted the red trendline (something it sometimes does on its own on old charts with long time frames) -- I have corrected its location from the prior chart.  Red technically becomes the first zone on sustained trade below black, THEN blue.  The annotation has been updated to reflect this.

SPX is still in its uptrend, so nothing to add here for now:

That's about all the news that's fit to print at the moment.  Trade safe.

Gold and SPX: Gold Captures Downside Target

Gold has officially captured its downside target zone (4350-4400) from May 11 -- and is now bouncing off of that zone:

Bigger picture, the recent low in gold aligns with the red trendline.  As long as that line holds, bulls are in good shape.  If gold sustains trade below that, bulls will want to become cautious, because blue could come into play, particularly if this year's lows were to fail:

SPX has continued higher since last update:

In conclusion, gold captured its targets and SPX is still within its latest version of the green channel, so nothing much to add as long as those conditions continue.  If SPX sustains trade below green, that would be a sign that the uptrend might be pausing... but given how resilient this market has been, we'll have to play it by ear from there.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: INDU Back from the Dead

There have been whispers for a while now.  

"INDU," people said, usually quietly among close friends, "that used to be a market when I was young. Now look at it! Stuck below blue forever. It was fun while it lasted."  

But then, just as INDU was about to be permanently delisted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (don't ask me how that would work, I just report the news), it broke above blue and made a new all-time high.

Moving on to SPX: in Wednesday's update, I wrote, "the odds are better than 50% that we now have an impulsive decline in place, though I can't entirely rule out an ABC structure."  I either assessed the odds wrong on Wednesday, or the minority percentage showed up.  

To be fair, by Friday, I was already reassessing those initial odds and wrote "INDU's new high forces more consideration of the ABC count."

And it turned out it was indeed an ABC decline.  I guess, considering that Wednesday was the first time I leaned even short-term bearish during ~1,000+ points of rally, that's an error I'm okay with owning.

I noted on Friday that the near-term rally off the red target line (the dashed horizontal line on the chart above) was forming an overlapping structure, which implied it was either corrective or a micro bull nest.  We should now assume it was indeed a micro bull nest, which implies the rally will need some 4/5 unwinds before the next inflection.  

That said, for the simple reason that expanded flats can show up unpredictably, we should also at least remain alert to the (almost always live) potential of the new high being a large b-wave with a revisit of the recent low in C.

Big picture, SPX has performed as expected:

In conclusion, Wednesday was a whiff and bulls retain the ball.  We're back to watching the green uptrend line and the next upside inflections.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Murk-to-Murket

So of course, now INDU makes a new high -- at least, a new high for this recovery leg, if not a new all-time high yet.

That new high does at least open some questions in SPX:

Big picture, it might be worth keeping an eye on the rising green trend line as a simple support zone:

In conclusion, INDU's new high does add a bit more murk to the already less-than-crystal-clear water, so both sides probably want to stay on their toes until the picture clarifies a bit.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: First Downside Targets Captured

SPX captured Friday and Monday's first downside target zones:

Right now, there are wide error bars on a potential 2/B, given the structure.  Essentially, a potential 2/B ranges from "already basically done" all the way up to "rough retest of the all-time high."  Sorry I can't be more precise than that given what's on the charts at the moment:

In conclusion, the odds are better than 50% that we now have an impulsive decline in place, though I can't entirely rule out an ABC structure.  Assuming it is an impulsive decline, we should see at least one more leg down of roughly equal length -- or much greater, if that's nested within a still-larger developing impulse.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: No Change

After Friday's open, the market went nowhere, so nothing has changed from Friday's update and please refer to it as needed.

Accordingly, we'll just focus on one new chart today: SPX's near term chart and what it implies:

The bigger picture chart is unchanged, as SPX dropped straight to the question mark and stayed there:

Not much else to add since Friday.  Just to reiterate, though, bulls should probably become cautious if SPX does form an impulse down here, since that could be the start of something larger.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Shifting into Neutral

So for the past few weeks, I've been pretty adamant about not seeing anything bearish so far... but finally, I can no longer guarantee that.

Now, it's too early to say anything with confidence, so that doesn't mean we're about to have a big decline.  It just means I can't be confident that we won't.  On the bull side, we don't have an impulsive decline yet.  On the bear side, there are potentially enough waves for the rally to end if it wants -- and INDU never made a new high.

So we are officially on "impulsive decline watch" right now.  I've highlighted two inflection zones in case this turns ugly:

SPX did capture (and slightly exceed) my next (forum only) upside targets from Monday:

INDU never cleared blue, possibly because I drew that line with a magic marker.

Of course "In the event it starts correcting here, we won't be able to rule out a trip toward ~44,000" is the kind of sentence that needs another one, so here's a bit more nuance:

In conclusion, this is the first time since very early in the rally that I'm not pretty confident new highs are still coming directly.  Doesn't mean, necessarily, that the rally is over.  It could be, but we have no evidence for that yet.  So it's more that things have shifted a bit more neutral for the moment.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: A Quiet Normal Life

Since last update, SPX ran a bit higher, reversed, and then rebounded into the ballpark of the prior high.  It's possible that this is the black correction I sketched it, just unfolding from slightly higher prices than when I first sketched it.

SPX did break the green uptrend line, but it's unclear whether the high is a b-wave or not.  In the event it's not (or in the event of a complex flat), it could play out like this (though it's very early and there's not a lot to draw from yet, so don't lean on this too heavily):

INDU, of course, still remains below blue, where it will apparently quietly live out the remainder of its life as an index.

Not much else to add beyond that -- yet.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, Gold Updates

SPX did capture its second May 1 target (7390-7400) and has at least paused.  We'll see if it can sustain a breakout here or not.

The chart below is ONLY relevant if SPX sustains a breakdown at rising green.

INDU is still stuck below blue:

Finally, while I've published long-term gold charts for the last 15 years, I haven't published a near-term gold chart in maybe a decade.  So, just for fun, here's a near-term gold chart:

Maybe the most interesting thing about that chart is the clear three-wave decline off the all time high.  Gold bears would need to break down below the March low to turn the trend from bullish.

Not much else to add to recent updates.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: What is Going On with INDU?

No real change from the last six months of updates.  SPX did capture its next upside target (one I gave in our forums on May 1: 7310-20) and SPX cash came within a few points of capturing its second upside target (7390-7400):

So, it's worth watching here, because sometimes targets can act as inflection zones -- but again, bears won't want to get too aggressive without an impulsive decline.

The real question is: What on earth is going on with INDU?  SPX has rallied approximately 2.4 million points while INDU has remained stuck below its resistance line and its prior all-time high:

The lag in INDU continues to be something to watch.  

In the event SPX starts breaking down here, the first inflection zone will be 7260-7290.  The next zones are as indicated on the first chart.  One thing worth being aware of here: IF we are indeed witnessing a near-term extended fifth, when it does finally turn, it can turn fast... so that's worth keeping in mind.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates: Big Picture

Last update concluded:

It wouldn't be unusual to see some backing and filling soon, the market has come a long way in a very short time.  That said, I'm still hesitant to step in front of this thing -- as I have been since April 15, when I called it a "freight train" -- so take that as a heads up more than anything.  Until we see an impulsive decline, bulls could still have more tricks up their sleeves. 

And that's pretty much how it went on Monday and Tuesday: some backing and filling, then bulls reached into their sleeves and pulled out more new highs.  It will be interesting to see if we get more backing and filling or if the market breaks out and runs again, so in the meantime, let's take a look at some big picture charts, starting with this SPX chart from April 20.  We did get the candle this chart discussed and while it's never impossible for something unusual to happen, it would be highly unusual for a market to "top" on this kind of candle.  At the bare minimum, these types of candles have so much inertia that even when they are tops, they usually become drawn out tops with retests of the high and so forth:

Trend line-wise (not sure that's a phrase), SPX is above all the relevant trend lines:

It's also above the purple channel again, for the moment:

Finally, INDU remains the one X-factor chart for bulls and they would probably like to see this resolve in their favor:

In conclusion, additional backing and filling remains possible -- but the key thing bears are looking for (before getting hopeful) remains an impulsive decline.  Trade safe.

 

SPX and INDU Updates

Unless/until there is an impulsive decline, there's still not much to add to the past few updates. It is worth a mention that INDU still remains below blue:

SPX is still holding its latest uptrend line:

It wouldn't be unusual to see some backing and filling soon, the market has come a long way in a very short time.  That said, I'm still hesitant to step in front of this thing -- as I have been since April 15, when I called it a "freight train" -- so take that as a heads up more than anything.  Until we see an impulsive decline, bulls could still have more tricks up their sleeves.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: You Had One Job...

Last update noted:

In short: bears still have a chance to turn things, but as of this moment, don't have any clear impulsive declines to confirm that's anything more than a "chance" yet.  

It also noted that bears probably needed to get things going directly to keep their hopes alive, with the blue line still prominent and needing a whipsaw... and bears failed to even get below it momentarily.

INDU and NYA (not shown) are maybe the last possible sources of anything approximating bear hope for the moment:

In conclusion, SPX remained above rising blue, providing no additional hope for bears (as I wrote on April 24: "[The larger flat's] odds will begin fading the longer SPX sustains trade above rising blue."), and now has an opportunity to break away from it.  INDU and NYA are really the only remaining X-factors at this point.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Nothing Doing

Last update noted that the market was showing some early warning signs of potential weakness and SPX drifted about 35 points lower since then -- while INDU has remained stuck below key resistance, as it has for a week and a half now:

Of minor mention: I drew a new uptrend line after SPX broke the green channel, and SPX has now broken that, too:

Given the market hasn't really gone anywhere, there's just nothing new to add to the prior update.  In short: bears still have a chance to turn things, but as of this moment, don't have any clear impulsive declines to confirm that's anything more than a "chance" yet.  

Near-term, it's worth being alert to the potential of a more complex (very near-term) flat, which could play out as a drop into the 7010-38 zone, followed by a bounce back to new highs... so, in the event the market declines from here, that would be the first inflection zone.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: A Nuanced Moment

We're probably into "last call for bears" on the bigger, more complex expanded flat down toward 6300.  I wouldn't count them out just yet, but we do need to see an impulsive decline before getting too excited about that idea:

Despite the new high in SPX, INDU failed to follow suit:

This failure in INDU gives bears (ironically, perhaps) more hope than they had at the close of last week.  So we're seeing a few signs of POTENTIAL weakness, but need a little nuance here: bears can't get too excited without so much as an impulsive decline to their names -- yet, due to the behavior in INDU and NYA (not shown) I do think we should keep a close eye on the potential complex flat as a live possibility unless/until bulls right the ship.  Trade safe.