SPX and NDX Update: A Rally, or Just a Blip?

Yesterday, the market again traded right down into my target zone, but, as mentioned yesterday, there are now two solid reasons for shorts to be cautious at these levels:

1)  The alternate count suggested a bottom right in the target zone (as described yesterday).
2)  The wave down could also count as a complete impulse, or first wave (charts to follow).

Now, that said, the count I favor here doesn't believe the decline is done just yet.  It does, however, believe a corrective rally is due pretty much immediately.  Let's take a look at that chart (below)... the chart's a bit cluttered, but the move has reached a stage where I felt I needed to detail several points.

   
Let me stress here that this is a very, very difficult structure to label, and there are a lot of different ways to interpret the price action since early December.  I'm favoring this interpretation, but every system of analysis runs into limitations at times -- and that should be taken into consideration when placing trades.

This interpretation of the count can be knocked out with trade above 1231.48.  It should be noted again that the alternate count may very well have found a bottom on Monday, since the move off the December highs now counts very well as a complete a-b-c.  I don't favor that count at this stage -- but it remains a possibility to be cautious of, now more than ever since the structure no longer looks like it needs lower prices under that alternate interpretation.

The next chart I'd like to share is a completely different interpretation of the pattern on the S&P 500 (SPX).  I'm not favoring this interpretation, due to the internal structure of the wave marked by the call-out box -- however, I'm unable to rule it out because the gap down in that wave does make the structure at least somewhat veiled and difficult to interpret... so I feel obligated to call attention to this possibility.  This interpretation counts the move from the December 9-13 as a structure called a "running flat."  Under this interpretation, a larger second wave rally should now unfold.

I favor the first count shown over this one, by a margin of 60%.

The next chart I'm going to share is the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), and this chart is one of the reasons I'm favoring the SPX interpretation shown in the very first chart. The NDX seems to argue that this wave is not complete (barring the alternate count), and that would indicate that the SPX still has more downside left as well.  However, if the NDX trades above 2292.15, it’s all but guaranteed that the bullish alternate count is playing out, because that would create overlap of the first and fourth waves, and lock-in a very clear a-b-c pattern on the NDX decline.

Another reason I favor the first SPX chart, and the NDX chart below (which is essentially the same count), is that Monday was a major distribution day, and declines seldom find meaningful bottoms on such action.

 
This wave has been very difficult to track (and I'm frankly a bit amazed my targets have hit non-stop going all the way back to the week prior to last) -- but maybe that's the way it needs to be at this stage, if the preferred count is correct.  The market almost never makes it easy.

In conclusion, I remain long-term bearish.  The short term is a bit of a muddy picture at the moment, but I'm favoring the view that the market will see some type of brief rally at this stage before going on to make further new lows.  It pays to be alert to the possibility that I'm wrong, though, and trade above 1231.47 SPX would indicate that my favored interpretation is incorrect -- it's been a great run, so maybe I'm due for a flub.  Trade safe. 

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

SPX and Dow Update: Critical Week for the Short Term?

On Friday, the market again performed in accordance with the expectations of the preferred count, with the Dow and SPX hitting their targets and reversing within just a few points.  This does remain a difficult market to anticipate, however.  This week could be critical to unveiling the market's intentions.

While the preferred count has hit every single target I've published for over a week, I've been able to gauge those targets by the very short-term structures -- so the fact that they've hit doesn't tell me much about the larger count.  At present, the prices remain at an important, larger, inflection point.  I am expecting lower prices early in the week (again, based on short time frames), but what happens from there should finally tell us which count is unfolding.  The preferred count needs to see some strong downward movement in the near future, or it will become difficult to maintain.

There are several ways to label the current decline, and if it is indeed the impulse wave the preferred count thinks it is, then it needs to show some acceleration lower soon.  There are only so many first and second waves that seem "reasonable" -- after a time, one has to start considering that the whole structure may just be a corrective wave instead. 

I do feel that the market is in an area where shorts need to remain aware of a potential rally; bearish sentiment is also reaching levels that have generated rallies in the recent past.  The main clue we have which could serve as warning of a larger rally unfolding would be the trend line/channel that has formed in several markets.  A break of the upper trendline would be a signal to become very cautious of a bigger rally beginning. 

The first chart I'd like to share is one of the NYSE Composite Index (NYA).  This is a very broad index, encompassing all the common stock on the New York Stock Exchange -- and it's one I like to watch to get a more general "pulse" of the market.  The NYA shows a very clearly-defined triangle.  A breakout/breakdown from the triangle would imply a move of 20% or more in the direction of the break.

The next chart is the SPX, and it's labeled with the preferred count in blue/red, and the alternate in black.  The red/blue labels are the most bearish labeling of the decline possible, and may need to be adjusted, depending on what happens this week.  The blue "Alt: B" target zone is the safer and more conservative target. 

Do note that the wave labeled with red (1) is potentially a complete 5-wave form, and thus bears the black "Alt: c" label.  At this particular point, short term downside targets are a bit sketchy.  It's hard to count the rally on Thursday and Friday as part of an impulse -- it certainly appears corrective, and as such, suggests lower prices.  But the larger structure is so vague, it's very tricky to understand exactly what's unfolding at the moment -- there are clues here and there, but little in the way of a concrete formation.

The final chart is the Dow, and it's labeled a bit differently than the SPX, because the price structure there is actually markedly different.  It also calls attention to another potentially important support/resistance zone, in the form of the blue trendline.  This index shows a double-top, formed early this month, much more clearly than the SPX does.  The blue support/resistance line could be the key battleground which determines whether the bulls or bears emerge victorious for the next week or longer.

The NDX chart remains the same as last week, and has continued to perform in accordance with the expectations of the preferred count.

In conclusion, I remain bearish over the long term; my stance in that regard has been unchanged since May.  What we're really trying to determine now is exactly when the next big leg down will get kicked off in earnest.  It appears the market is very close to doing so, but still unclear as to whether it's already started.  Range-bound markets are exceptionally difficult to predict, even though my short-term projections have been hit quite consistently.  Hopefully, this week will provide some clear answers on the larger picture -- a decisive break lower will tell us that the decline is likely to run for a while.  Conversely, a break of the upper trendline will warn us that the market probably wants to stretch the correction a bit higher first.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

Wyndham Worldwide: Potential Short Opportunity?

In examining my chartbook this weekend, I came across this possible short opportunity.  This is Wyndham Worldwide, a resort/timeshare company. 

The stock appears to have just completed an ending diagonal.  In classic TA, this would be known as a "bearish rising wedge."  We can see that the wedge has been broken and backtested from underneath, which is also a bearish signal. 

Wyndham Worldwide was a fantastic short play in 2007-2008 when, in the span of 16 months, it dropped from $36.50 all the way down to $2.38. It subsequently rallied to its recent high of $36.60.  Besides the chart, what indicates Wyndham could be a solid short play?

For those who are interested in fundamentals: Wyndham is a spin-off of the old Cendant Corporation. Wyndham's primary sources of revenue are its vacation-related business divisions. Wyndham is the world's largest hotel franchisor, the world's largest timeshare-exchange network (the RCI division), and the world's largest vacation ownership (timeshare) company. I expect these businesses, especially timeshare, to get hit hard in the current/coming recession. During 2008, Wyndham's timeshare sales took a haircut to the tune of roughly 40%, with most of that loss coming after the mid-point in the year as the stock market deteriorated.

Timeshare is becoming a dead business model anyway, for two reasons: 1) the real estate market has collapsed, and 2) use of the internet has become widespread. It's hard to sell a "brand-new" timeshare when someone can go on eBay and buy the exact same timeshare for pennies on the dollar.

Additionally, the timeshare division ("Wyndham Vacation Ownership") writes much of their own paper. It seems probable they are holding onto a good chunk of marginal paper, plenty of which is sure to be at risk for default -- especially since the only thing people "lose" when their timeshare gets foreclosed is the right to use said timeshare. There's no repo man who shows up and rips "a week" out of the building while the wife is crying and the kids are clutching their beach towels, screaming, "But Daddy, where will we vacation now?" so it's not terribly traumatic.

(In the interest of accuracy: Wyndham uses points, not weeks, but you get the idea.)

Many owners are certain to see default as preferrable to continuing to pay their monthly loan and maintenance fees. Maintenance fees alone on the average Wyndham timeshare are about $70 per month. If you owned a mortgaged timeshare and had to prioritize where to allot your dwindling money in a depression, the timeshare would likely be the first payment to go. 

Here are the charts:

SPX, NDX, and Dow Update: Who Wants to Fade Santa?

From a technical standpoint, nothing happened yesterday.  The markets may as well have been closed.  Lots of people are talking about the bullish "inverted hammer" candlestick (so named because it looks like a candlestick) on the daily charts, but Friday's action is needed to confirm the bullish implications of this pattern. 

Next week is the last trading week before Christmas, and traditionally it's a low volume week with a bullish bias.  Of course, the week of Thanksgiving would be described the same way, and this year saw a pretty steep decline through Thanksgiving week (as predicted here). 

Another interesting seasonal fact is that the Volatility Index (VIX) often bottoms in December.  In fact, during many years, the low of the entire year (or very close) in VIX is reached shortly before Christmas (recent examples: 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2010).  So who wants to fade Santa?

Frankly, I'm scared of Santa.  Always have been.  Buried away somewhere, I have a picture of me as a baby, bawling my eyes out, while I'm being held by a mall Santa who -- judging by his facial expression -- clearly felt that this particular situation hadn't been thoroughly discussed during his training at Mall Santa School.  So it's hard to get too bearish about the week before Christmas -- but I'm going to suggest it anyway.

The caveat here is that many markets are reaching levels which could generate a strong bounce soon. Yesterday, I used the analogy of a stretched rubber band:  either it snaps back forcefully (possibly right into your face), or it breaks.  This is the position the market appears to be in, and, as of yet, no key intermediate levels have been violated on the downside -- at least not in the major averages; several minor averages have already broken some key support levels.

The charts are now in a position where it's very difficult to predict which situation will actually play out.  As I said, I favor the bearish resolution, but I have annotated the next chart to illustrate both potentials. 

The preferred count shows the decline as a series of first and second waves, which, if correct, should be the prelude to a big third wave decline.  The pressure is now on this count to perform or be eliminated.  Friday should see some early upside bias under the expectations of this count, but next week the market would need to sell off strongly.  If one were so inclined, Friday could provide some short entries with manageable stops (barring a huge gap up on Monday... now where have we seen that before?) and a lot of profit potential.

The bullish alternate count suggests the market will ultimately break above the October highs (before reversing to new lows).  A sustained upside break of the red trend channel would be first warning to be alert to the bullish alternate count, and trade above the red dashed knockout level would indicate new highs are very likely. 

The chart below uses the Dow Jones Industrial Average for form.

The next chart is the daily chart of the S&P 500 (SPX), and depicts the expectations of the bearish count over the short term.  Note that the market is currently trading just above a theoretically-important support zone.  The chart is annotated with "or (2)?" to show the expectations of where the bullish alternate count could top if it unfolded.

The final chart is the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), and it's the same chart I showed yesterday.  The NDX continues to act like the weaker sister here and is actually below important support.  One of the things I'd like to call attention to regarding this chart is that the count is much less vague than the SPX.  The NDX shows a very clearly defined A-B-C pattern, and I have a really hard time imagining that NDX has not already topped its Minor (2) wave.  In my mind, this lends credence to the argument that SPX and Dow have both topped as well.

In conclusion, I remain long and medium term bearish.  Short term, my current expectation is that the market probably won't grant the much-anticipated Santa rally to new highs, which it seems everyone is waiting for.  But there isn't any real confirmation yet either way, so it's prudent to remain alert to both scenarios... especially since Santa brings huge lumps of coal to investors who don't trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

SPX and NDX Update: Targets Hit Again; and the Long-Term Projections

As I've examined the charts tonight, I've been looking for reasons why the big nasty third wave decline isn't starting.  I'm not finding too many.  Most of the individual stock charts I've looked at are in bad shape.  The one confusing thing is the wave structure on the major indices, going back to the December top, is a mess.  It looks corrective, which would imply a move back above the December top; but so far it isn't behaving correctively.  I'm favoring the idea that the bearish counts shown below are unfolding, and that the top is in -- but the market is again reaching that "stretched rubber-band" stage, where it could snap-back violently, or it could break in dramatic fashion.

As a result, it's still a tough call on the short-to-mid term picture as to whether there'll be one last lunge above the October 27 highs or not.  As stated above, I continue to favor the more bearish resolution -- but I do want to take a minute and warn my readers that, now more than ever, please trade safely.  I say that because I've been nailing targets left and right, and that breeds a certain complacency about my targets and projections.  I'm not a crystal ball, much as I often go on hot streaks where it may seem like I am... there's simply no perfect analytical system out there, so eventually the market will hit us with a curve ball, and I don't want everyone to get burned when it happens.  Know your exit when you enter a trade, so if it goes against you, you live to fight another day.  Okay, lecture over.  :)

Before I get into the shorter term projections, I want to take a minute and update the Big Picture chart (this linked article also contains an introduction to Elliott Wave Theory).  The chart below shows my long-term projections, which assume my larger count is correct.  This has been my count since 2007, and it's the count I used to anticipate the 2009 bottom, as well as the 2011 top.  In other words, it has tracked quite well for several years.  Bear in mind that even if my count is perfect, the chart will need to be adjusted somewhat as we go along.  Unless the market proves otherwise by violating the 2011 highs, this is ultimately what I believe is coming in the not-too-distant future.

We are now getting closer to the big wave (3) decline, if it hasn't started already.  You can see the black "Alt: 2" annotation which shows how woefully anemic the bullish alternate count would be in the grand scheme of things... assuming my count is correct, of course.  Obviously, I believe it is -- and I'm favoring this count by a 90% margin at this stage.

The next chart I'd like to share is the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) projection for the upcoming weeks.  This projection assumes the bearish wave has indeed started.  Obviously, if the bullish alternate count is unfolding, then this projection would be voided for the immediate future.  The chart notes two warning signs that there may be more upside left.  Note that the sketched-in squiggles are just rough guidelines, not projections.  The actual projected target for blue wave (3) is 1920-1950.

The next chart presents a twist on the bullish alternate count, using the S&P 500 (SPX) for form.  Keep in mind that we have hit the retracement target expectations of that count, and if it's unfolding, it could bottom at any time from these levels.  Even under the terms of that count, I would expect at least a little more downside, to around 1200-1205.  But there are no guarantees of that -- as I said, the wave structures are a little screwy right now; this is one reason I'm suggesting everyone take precautions.

The last chart is my best-guess of the short-term SPX wave structures, and it's annotated with three targets, which equates to four price reversals -- so it's a bold call, but this is what looks most likely at the moment.  I'm expecting some upside to start the session today, and then a reversal off the 1215-1225 zone.  If the SPX trades above 1227.25, then something else is going on and this chart would need to be adjusted, possibly dramatically -- so trade accordingly.  The chart also notes that the market's at a good location for the bullish alternate count to bottom.

In conclusion, as you can see from the big picture chart, I'm quite bearish on the long term.  Over the very short term, I believe the market will still make at least one more new low here, although I expect we may see a decent bounce soon.  If the short term count shown above is correct, we could have quite a bit of volatility in the upcoming sessions -- so prepare for some whipsaws, and trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

SPX and NDX Update: More Selling Still to Come?

While the market has been hitting all  my projections perfectly, every night I look at the charts lately seems harder than the night before.  There are a lot of possibilities on the table right now, and because it's been range-bound recently, the market hasn't given much relevant info for us technical analysts to work with.  So I'm going to present some "best guesses" today, along with some indicators which support them.

I'm just going to roll right into the charts here, because outside of patting myself on the back for my flawless record of "no QE3 today" predictions, there isn't much else to talk about.  The first chart I'd like to share is one which has nothing to do with Elliott Wave Theory, but is one of the confirming indicators I like to use to help point the way.

The chart below shows the Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the "fear index."  When the market goes down, the VIX usually goes up, and vice-versa.  This week, however, the VIX has been falling in concert with the market; and I mentioned yesterday that the majority of the time, this means the market will make lower lows.  There are two things I'd like to call attention to on this chart: one is that the VIX bumped into its lower Bollinger band yesterday, and the other is the fact that VIX formed a possible reversal bar on Tuesday.  The chart highlights the last six months of occurences of this bar, and shows that 70% of the time, it leads to a meaningful move up in the VIX.

 
If you compare the top panel to the S&P 500 (SPX) chart in the lower panel, you can see that 70% of the time, this signal is quite bearish for stocks.

So, now we have some probabilities to work with on the Elliott wave counts.  The first count I'd like to share is the one I'm favoring, and it's the most bearish possible count.  I'm using the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to illustrate this count, because it shows an interesting fractal relationship between the current move and the beginning of the November decline (highlighted in yellow).

This count believes the "Santa rally" is over.  The bullish alternate count I've mentioned for over a month still cannot be ruled out, though.  I'm trying to take it day-by-day here, because the structure of the waves lately is somewhat infuriating -- and even though I've been nailing the short term moves of late, the market's larger intentions are still somewhat veiled.

On the NDX chart shown above, an upside break of the falling trendline would be first warning to be on alert for bullish potential, and trade above any of the second waves (the first level to watch is 2316.90) would be a huge red flag to that count. 

The next chart I'd like to share is at the request of several readers.  Apparently, a fair number of Elliotticians are now calling the decline an ending diagonal.  I have a problem with that interpretation, and the chart below shows why.  As the name implies, an "ending diagonal" comes at the end of a trend; and when we chart a market other than the SPX, we can see that this interpretation makes little sense.  The diagonal on this chart is the entirety of the new trend; which means it could be the start of a new trend -- i.e.- a leading diagonal -- but not the end of one.

The chart also illustrates what could happen if this is a leading diagonal.  Leading (and ending) diagonals are known in classic technical analysis as "wedges" and a breakouts often results in the market returning to the price level at the start of the pattern.  Significant new lows beneath Tuesday's should knock this count out of consideration; or conversely, an upside breakout above the red trendline would be fair warning that this was unfolding.

The final chart is my "best guess" on the short-term intentions of this market.  The tiniest waveforms are a bit sketchy, so use this however you see fit, or ignore it completely if you want.  My best guess is that yesterday's low was the bottom of the smaller internal third wave of the current wave, and the market still needs to form the fourth and fifth wave. 

The chart also shows how one could count the decline as a complete correction to fit the bullish alternate count.  The market has now traded markedly into the target zone for that count, and has fulfilled the requirements for a B-wave correction under the terms of that bullish count.

However, even if that bullish count is playing out, based on my VIX studies, the market still has a 70% probability of making new lows before forming a meaningful bottom. 

Please note that in the above chart, the 1230 target was already hit in the overnight futures session, and as such may be complete.  With this market, it's tough to say.

In conclusion, there has been nothing to change my long and medium term bearish stance, and the probabilities argue in favor of a short-term bearish stance as well.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

SPX Update: All Targets Hit -- Now What?

Yesterday was about as good a day as one can have in the "market projection" business.  Not only did my prediction for a new low below 1231 come to fruition, but the S&P 500 (SPX) even tagged the upper end of my target zone at 1227.  Additionally, the Euro hit the 1.309-1.322 target I published over a week ago, reaching a low of 1.316.  Now it gets a bit tricky again.

Those of you who've been following along know that there are two main counts still on the table.  The first is the immediately bearish count which maintains that the S&P 500's high of 1292 was a major top which will not be bested for a long time.  The second is a count with some short-term bullish potential, which believes that there is one more marginal new high still waiting out there in the not-too-distant future.  Yesterday did nothing to eliminate either count -- and, even worse (at least, for those of us who have to come up with something interesting to share with everybody each day), it made the short term outlook a bit hazy as well.  This is one of those times that another day or two of market action would be very helpful for clearing up the picture. 

So today's article is going to depart a bit from "the beaten market path" and instead focus on something completely different.  Instead of talking about trading, today we'll be discussing the virtues of using bright paint colors to liven up your living spaces!  Of course I'm kidding! 

Actually, let's take a minute and talk about QE3-- since once again all eyes are on the Fed meeting, and everyone (including Martha Stewart) is talking about QE3 again.

The last two times this came up, I opined that there would be no QE3.  I remain of this view for several reasons, most of which I've outlined previously, including this one:  In 2010, when the Fed announced QE2, they demonstrated that they have a pain threshold relative to the stock market -- and they showed us right where that level is. The Fed's pain threshold equates to the SPX 1000 mark, give or take fifty cents.

Additionally, due to political reasons, the Fed is not really able to be proactive; so it is reactionary instead -- and there simply is no clearly-defined crisis to react to at the present moment, at least not in the mind of the average American.  Beyond that, they've been able to accomplish their agenda by employing Virtual QE3, which is where the Fed governors run around talking about how QE3 is ready and waiting and, by golly, the greatest thing to happen in America since Ben Franklin invented fire.  (What do you mean, America didn't invent fire? Whatever.)  So far, this QE3 "dirty talk" has been enough to keep the bulls excited about the market.  So again, I would be shocked if they decided to launch it now.

Alright, on to the charts.  The first chart I'm presenting shows the bullish alternate count.  I'm showing this one first because it portrays a bigger picture look at the market and highlights some support/resistance zones.  Plus it's been a series of dead-on hits since November 20... so it continues to bear watching.

Even though the target zone (for both counts, actually) was hit on Monday, I am favoring some further new lows over the coming sessions.  But it's another challenging call here.  I'm using the wave structure which seems to be present in the E-mini futures (Symbol: ES) to make this call, since Monday was another big gap down and reveals nothing.  I dislike applying Elliott Wave to the futures markets, because the extreme leverage in futures tends to distort the charts.  

Let's zoom in to the one-minute chart, below.  It's possible that Monday's low was simply the third wave of a five wave structure, which would target 1220-1223 for the next bounce.  There are two other possibilities, though:

1)  Monday's low was the end of another first wave down and the rally into the end of day is part of a second wave.  This would target the 1190 area next.  If the move starts to accelerate after a break of Monday's low, look for this possibility to be unfolding.

2)  Monday's low was the bottom of the B wave of the alternate count (I give this low odds; I don't think Monday's low holds).

Too deep a retracement rally (above 1246 or so) would rule out the fourth wave, and narrow it down to the two options above.

It does appear that some more upside is needed to complete the current retracement rally.  The two areas to watch for clues that new lows are unlikely would be the down-sloping trendline on the first chart (in red) and the recent high of 1258.21.  If the trendline is broken, that would be the first clue of underlying strength, and if the 1258.21 high is broken, that would tend to favor the bullish alternate count and new highs.

Another reason I favor more downside in the coming sessions is that the Volatility Index (VIX), which generally trades inversely to the SPX, also traded down on Monday.  Over the past four years, this type of action has led to new lows (not necessarily immediately, but at some point in the coming few sessions) more than 70% of the time.  It also tends to presage a big move down, typically in the range of 2-3%.  This might argue for option 1 listed above: the 1-2 count.

Something else that bears mention is the fact that the market is still trading in a large range, the bottom of which is 1115.  The market has now run through practically every penny of this range at least ten times since August, and that type of trading tends to weaken support and resistance zones, which can lead to a phenomenon known as "range racing."

In conclusion, I remain very bearish over the long and medium term, and at present, I am still short-term bearish as well.  Fed meeting days can be quite volatile (as opposed to the mild volatility we've seen in the recent past -- ha ha), so expect some possible whipsaws.  Also, I would strongly suggest you consider repainting your living room.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com